Massive US trade deficit - Recipe For Disaster

Quote from hanseng1:

Actually I was referring to the more recent numbers (seasonally adjusted); I'm sure your numbers are correct.

The increase has been small over the last six months or so, with a substantial decrease in the seasonally adjusted M2.

The picture shows what I was referring to; the money supply has been growing very steadily since the mid 1990s, with a "flat spot" over the last several months (severe currency interventions?). The rate of growth was increased, as shown here and also as expected by the monetary expansion over the last several years.

I don't know why it leveled off (or declined when seasonally adjusted). I've heard a couple of different theories, and the mass intervention idea seems logical since this is roughly when the dollar tanked versus the yen. I have no evidence to back this up, however.

A great site for the Feb data is:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/index.html
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hanseng1: Could the reason (relating to your text I underlined above) be that there is an outflow of USD going out of the USA that is simply unaccounted for, or unsuspected? In the billions of dollars? That has been happening for the last two years - concentrated enough to now make/show an impact?

Snow does have his "mystery" regarding unemployment numbers, after all.

Kind regards,

Sam
 
Quote from hanseng1:

Here is a picture of the yen.....

Makes me curious....anyone know where I cound find specific dates and amounts of the Japanese interventions?
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hanseng1: Yes, I do. Just been sort of tracking yen the past few weeks due to a trade(s) I been effing around with in it.

Check this link:

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&edition=us&q=yen+bank+of+japan+intervention

You can also click "Sort by date" - upper right.

A note on my take on this latest 700 point spike up on USD/JPY: The USD rally started based on a rumor that EU would cut interest rates - that rumor caused an 800 point spike down in EUR/USD.

The rumor combined with expectation of a better jobs report and other (more critical) USD data that also accounted for the USD rally.

The yen just rode the USD rally down - that is what accounted for at least 600 of the 700 point spike in USD/JPY imho.

It made the BOJ's job of intervention MUCH easier for them - so that their corporate year end picture got a free ride to show/book better year end numbers.

Therefore the BOJ's main intervention has been / can be more focused on keeping the lower yen prices above 110.00 - at least until the end of March when they won't need the price to be as low anymore since all their share holders in the Nikkei will be content seeings that the companies they own shares in are showing satisfactory numbers.

Sam
 
Quote from josbarr:

POSTED: 9:20 a.m. EST March 12, 2004

WASHINGTON -- The nation's trade deficit, by its broadest measure, rose to a record of nearly $542 billion in 2003.

The latest snapshot of trade activity released by the Commerce Department shows that the "current account" deficit last year was 12.7 percent bigger than the previous all-time high deficit in 2002.

The current account report is considered the best measure of a country's international economic standing because it tracks not just the goods and services reflected in the government's monthly trade reports but also investment flows.

The nation's deficit in goods was the main factor in the bigger overall deficit for 2003.

In services, the United States is running a trade surplus. It narrowed last year to $59 billion, compared to $64 billion in 2002.
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whats funny is you never see big headlines for: US economy at 10 trillion biggest in the world, grows to record size, etc....
guess it doesnt make as good a headline or there are agendas at hand whether it be political, pundit, or general scaremongering.
not saying evrything is rosy, but liek someone else said, youve heard this talk for twenty years, nothing new.
 
Quote from Ron In-a-sauna:

whats funny is you never see big headlines for: US economy at 10 trillion biggest in the world, grows to record size, etc....
guess it doesnt make as good a headline or there are agendas at hand whether it be political, pundit, or general scaremongering.
not saying evrything is rosy, but liek someone else said, youve heard this talk for twenty years, nothing new.
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Good point, Ron.

But you will see the headline that reads:

"United States defaults on payment on $7 trillion dollar national debt - declares bankruptcy - USD to be devaluated within the next 24 hours."

Perhaps that is why Soros and Buffett are shorting it.

Sam
 
thats an extreme headline.....

if we're close to that point, i'm going to have get me some serious heat and make my home a armed compound.

no, serious


it'll never get to that point because the taxes will be raised to deal with the problem. 60% maybe 70% tax rates. the government will be forced to do what it needs to do.

maybe i should start learning chinese stocks..........
 
Quote from causeiambetta:

thats an extreme headline.....

if we're close to that point, i'm going to have get me some serious heat and make my home a armed compound.

no, serious


it'll never get to that point because the taxes will be raised to deal with the problem. 60% maybe 70% tax rates. the government will be forced to do what it needs to do.

maybe i should start learning chinese stocks..........
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causeiambetta: Never say "never."

Remember, one of the main reasons why the national debt is already so high is because USD government cannot come together on terms for it to be addressed successfully for its remedy.

Something the forefathers who wrote the constitution apparently didn't have the foresight to take into consideration, indicating a minor flaw in the constitution.

Another minor flaw in the constitution is the huge hole it has regarding dealing with and granting/withholding rights of monetary and/or physical entry into the USD/USA by countries (and citizens of nations) the USA creamed in warfare during times of war.

:D

Old grudges.

Example: The nuking of Hiroshima. One day Japan holds honory rememberance of the horror of the bombings. Next day BOJ contributes to their countinuing being the biggest buyer/holder of USD debt. Real good mixture.

Another example: The Mexican / American war.

Mexicans still see parts of America as rightfully belonging to them regardless of what happened as an outcome of that war.

As a people they are very sweet and simple, but as enemies they fight to the death and are deeply spiteful and vindictive. They are also quickly becoming the number one minority in the USA.

And, Bush, (a far-sighted dude) just granted Mexicans a huge immigration bill allowing all the illegal Mexicans to gain citizenship.

Talk about a Trojan horse!

Think it over.

Sam
 
I'd dispute your claim for low inflation. The low inflation numbers are the result of BLS flim flam. You'll note that the BLS has not released numbers on the PPI, allegedly because of some switching over to different data format that the old computers couldn't handle. Of course, they didn't release the data using the older method either, and it looks like they may miss Feb. numbers as well.

We all know the truth. The PPI is going to show prices thru the roof, so we won't see anything until after the election.

If you want to look at money growth figures, you have to go back more than a few months to evaluate the effects on prices. And those figures are BIG.

I suspect that the geniuses at the Fed will produce a result similar to the situation for the old USSR-- an inflationary Depression.
 
Quote from Tauvros:

I'd dispute your claim for low inflation. The low inflation numbers are the result of BLS flim flam. You'll note that the BLS has not released numbers on the PPI, allegedly because of some switching over to different data format that the old computers couldn't handle. Of course, they didn't release the data using the older method either, and it looks like they may miss Feb. numbers as well.

We all know the truth. The PPI is going to show prices thru the roof, so we won't see anything until after the election.

If you want to look at money growth figures, you have to go back more than a few months to evaluate the effects on prices. And those figures are BIG.

I suspect that the geniuses at the Fed will produce a result similar to the situation for the old USSR-- an inflationary Depression.
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Sorry, Tauvros, your statement reeks of conspiracy.
 
Quote from Tauvros:

We all know the truth. The PPI is going to show prices thru the roof, so we won't see anything until after the election.
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While I share some of your opinion for possible reasons for delay, it seems unlikely they plan to hold the truth until November.
 
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