Martys ES Ameba Tracking System

When price breaks through two support or resistance areas without a significant pullback it’s an extreme day. My current plan to mange this is to look to reverse (with a max. 2 point stop) especially if the next support or resistance area is far off.

Quote from martys:

Hi K-Rock,

IMHO, there is one and only one thing that will break a reversal trader and that is HELL DAY. Therefore it is my ONLY task... more important than ANYTHING else... to keep that from happening. I absolutely limit the number of losers in any given day. I have to remind myself of the pain if I think otherwise. When the mind is frustrated, it will only do what is the most familiar behavior pattern and that is putting out more reversal trades precisely at times when market cycle doesn't agree with us. The hard thing to do and therefore the right thing to do is to STOP. We are our best indicator.

How high is high? Who knows? Just look at the moon shot yesterday. IMHO, it is the correct thing to play a good reversal setup and get stopped out. We have to accept the risk of a good setup. However trying the 2nd times on the same leg, we are now betting all our mental bankroll. Trying it the 3rd times, we've lost it and are going for the loan shark.

I assume you are playing a zone with some price confirmation (trigger) when you said you use a wide stop which is probably the correct way to trade. I play a few different types of support/resistance and price coming together without price confirmation. Part of the reason is because I can have a much tighter stop. Unfortunately low risk doesn't always mean high quality. For example, if price touches my support/resistance the third time, it will probably break.

FOMC meeting can be tough. I see nothing wrong staying out if I feel there is no edge.

Good trading. Keep in touch.

Your fellow countertrend trader :)
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Quote from K-Rock:

When price breaks through two support or resistance areas without a significant pullback it’s an extreme day. My current plan to mange this is to look to reverse (with a max. 2 point stop) especially if the next support or resistance area is far off.
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Sounds like you are using floor trader's pivots? How well do they work? The only static levels I look at are the implied volatility bands (admittedly price returns are not normally distributed). They give me a zone sometimes but not an entry.
 
I don't use floor trader's pivots. Without getting into specifics my S/R levels are dynamic.

Quote from martys:

Sounds like you are using floor trader's pivots? How well do they work? The only static levels I look at is implied volatility band (admittedly price returns are not normally distributed). They give me a zone sometimes but not an entry.
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Quote from K-Rock:

I don't use floor trader's pivots. Without getting into specifics my S/R levels are dynamic.
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Oh good... :)
Market moves geometrically... Static S/R levels are a bit limiting.
 
There were no confirmation in the few setups appeared. My wife just told me her friend just told her there is some kind of bad astrological event today... something about the 9 planets. :D

I am done for the day because I haven't had enough sleep for the past two days. Gonna stay home and sleep.

Total: +2pt

Good trading.
 
Short at 1287.50 at the open Cover at 1285.50.

+2 pt

I was a bit anxious because the implied volatility level lines up otherwise could have a better entry. I also gave the stop a little more room. I was gonna try ride it but don't want to deviate from my plan.
 
I am gonna start the first week of the year slowly and stop here. Got to go to old college buddies' twins' birthday party tomorrow and don't want to show up with a sour face.

I might be a little off balance after watching the trade goes my way and I did not trust my intuition. It was an easy trade but I made it difficult.

Total pt for the week:
1+4+2+2 = 9 pt.

It is clear that I am still not very motivated and tend to close the shop before the seat is warm. I was hoping this journal would help but it didn't... might have made it worse. OK I don't want to watch this thing going down anymore. Good trading!
 
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