Martys ES Ameba Tracking System

I was way too anxious with my entry by focusing too much on the lower time frame otherwise the last trade would have worked out.

I try to scalp when several of my support/resistance lines up, often there is a reaction when "done" right. Whether it is running stops or trending, who knows? It's all about symmetry. I can't say more. But believe it or not, I look at trend lines all the time, that is how I track the movement of the Ameba and take out its false feet!

I don't think I am trading well today so I am gonna start slow for the year. Good trading.
 
Quote from monee:

Is the Andre Kostolany book written in english ?

I only saw a book by him with a foreign title.
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Sorry, I read the Chinese translations. I like reading about a few speculators at their golden age and appreciate their wider perspective in things. I have too much of a tunnel vision.
 
Wow, none of my stuff would have worked. All implied volatility band levels were blown to ashes.

Don't fight the trend. If you touch "it" twice, you are playing with it.
 
Counter trend traders have to be extremely conservative when the FOMC puts out info, or stop trading a couple of hours before the info is released.
 
Quote from K-Rock:

Counter trend traders have to be extremely conservative when the FOMC puts out info, or stop trading a couple of hours before the info is released.
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Definitely. FOMC can give some wild swings but there was an orderly reversal last one I remembered...the esignal data service crapped out... couldn't handle all the ticks (before CME changed the ticks). Today is just a straight moon shot.

I don't really use Fibonacci, but I am surprised my entry level often coincide with Fibonacci levels. For example the last trade I was in happened to be at the .50 level while it got stopped out at .618. I was too anxious looking at lower time frame while the higher time frame is pointing to an entry at exactly .618. I don't use Fib as an entry point because there are just too many damn levels but I use it as a filter. If I suspect a retracement, I would not fade something that is not even .382 and probably would like to see some deeper pullback since the floor people like to push .382 to .50.

I have not found the journal as helpful as I like it to be (still not as motivated as I would like). I will give it a try a little bit.

P.S. I think I am gonna do my posts at the end of the day since I like to be on my own during the day.
 
10:03 Short @ 1278.75 Stopped at 1279.75 -1 pt

10:24 Short @ 1279.75 Cover at 1277.50 +2.25 pt
I saw another same setup at different price right after I got stopped out.

The 10:03 entry at 1279.25 was just too fast for me, otherwise it would work out.

+1.25 pt
 
"With discipline... you will be all right even with an OK system."
I think Mark Fisher said something like that.

Turtle wins the race.
 
Missed the top... I don't know why... not enough sleep?

Short at 1277.75 cover at 1275. +2.75pt

Took the trade due to pattern failure near the opening range. Ride it a long time while letting go 2 pt profit and then some in the middle... too long... never do it again. If it pierces through the opening range, might run more stops but I decided I am only a scalper.

Total: +4 pt

I am done for the day.

P.S. Good thing I got out on the way down. Looks like it snaps right back.
 
Martys,

I’m also a counter trend trader; therefore, we have similar challenges. Unlike your method my entries are not always perfect, because they are predictive (near perceived support and resistance levels; therefore, my stops are very wide. It’s currently working for me but I’m always concerned about those occasional freight trains (similar to yesterday afternoon) that can easily wipe you out if you don’t know when it’s time to reverse with the trend (something I’m still working on).

K-Rock
 
Hi K-Rock,

IMHO, there is one and only one thing that will break a reversal trader and that is HELL DAY. Therefore it is my ONLY task... more important than ANYTHING else... to keep that from happening. I absolutely limit the number of losers in any given day. I have to remind myself of the pain if I think otherwise. When the mind is frustrated, it will only do what is the most familiar behavior pattern and that is putting out more reversal trades precisely at times when market cycle doesn't agree with us. The hard thing to do and therefore the right thing to do is to STOP. We are our best indicator.

How high is high? Who knows? Just look at the moon shot yesterday. IMHO, it is the correct thing to play a good reversal setup and get stopped out. We have to accept the risk of a good setup. However trying the 2nd times on the same leg, we are now betting all our mental bankroll. Trying it the 3rd times, we've lost it and are going for the loan shark.

I assume you are playing a zone with some price confirmation (trigger) when you said you use a wide stop which is probably the correct way to trade. I play a few different types of support/resistance and price coming together without price confirmation. Part of the reason is because I can have a much tighter stop. Unfortunately low risk doesn't always mean high quality. For example, if price touches my support/resistance the third time, it will probably break.

FOMC meeting can be tough. I see nothing wrong staying out if I feel there is no edge.

Good trading. Keep in touch.

Your fellow countertrend trader :)

Quote from K-Rock:

Martys,

I’m also a counter trend trader; therefore, we have similar challenges. Unlike your method my entries are not always perfect, because they are predictive (near perceived support and resistance levels; therefore, my stops are very wide. It’s currently working for me but I’m always concerned about those occasional freight trains (similar to yesterday afternoon) that can easily wipe you out if you don’t know when it’s time to reverse with the trend (something I’m still working on).

K-Rock
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