Martingale?

[MarketAddict]

Quote from kid.fx.cross:

well MarketAddict, you asked the question, and many replied telling you our experiences.

If you have superior understanding, please explain to us smalltime traders how to make it profitable.

First of all, people need to be reminded that you don’t need martingale to blow up an account .. Their is so much negativity with martingale. As if it is the main reason why a person will lose. The last time I checked 90% of traders are losing money and I will bet majority of them aren't using martingale at all.. That being said, martingale wont help a horrible system.. NO money management will help a horrible system..

Since we got that out of the way, hopefully you will understand martingale is just an add-on to a system.. Martingale will only work with a system that is average or above average.. I repeat, Martingale will only work with a system that is average or above average.. Holding on to loser hoping the market will come back is a horrible system.. You don't need martingale to blow up an account using that system.. No wonder why people using martingale are always losing.. You should never use martingale base on one trade.. It should base on strings of trades..

Martingale with a system which is even 46% accurate will cause you to be profitable.. But you have to make sure your system doesn't produce a lot of string of losers in a row.. How many losers? That's up to the amount of money in your account. But on average you better be able to handle 8-10 losers in the row.. Now that being said, there are systems out here on average that wont give you more than 4-5 losers in a row.. I know that's a bold statement, but if you understand how the market works then you will realize the market has to move a certain way.. ALWAYS.. The market will ALWAYS make double tops, the market will ALWAYS make a pull back, the market will ALWAYS have a breakout, the market will ALWAYS have some type of support & resistance.. Now it's up to you figure out which system you will use to trade this predictable market..

Martingale is only used to recover your string of losses much quicker.. It's not a method used on determining what direction the market will go.. If people would actually sit down and think... they would realize that after every loss your possibility of having a winning trade is actually increased, not decreased..

Most people still will be against martingale and bash everything I have said.. I'm cool with that.. But remember these two things.. One, your system is what will determine your probability of success or failure. Not simply doubling your lot size after a loss. And two, the market has to go up or down.. Until that doesn't happen anymore martingale will always work... ALWAYS..

P.S. Make sure you withdraw profit and pay yourself..

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from MarketAddict:

First of all, people need to be reminded that you don’t need martingale to blow up an account .. Their is so much negativity with martingale. As if it is the main reason why a person will lose. The last time I checked 90% of traders are losing money and I will bet majority of them aren't using martingale at all.. That being said, martingale wont help a horrible system.. NO money management will help a horrible system..

Since we got that out of the way, hopefully you will understand martingale is just an add-on to a system.. Martingale will only work with a system that is average or above average.. I repeat, Martingale will only work with a system that is average or above average.. Holding on to loser hoping the market will come back is a horrible system.. You don't need martingale to blow up an account using that system.. No wonder why people using martingale are always losing.. You should never use martingale base on one trade.. It should base on strings of trades..

Martingale with a system which is even 46% accurate will cause you to be profitable.. But you have to make sure your system doesn't produce a lot of string of losers in a row.. How many losers? That's up to the amount of money in your account. But on average you better be able to handle 8-10 losers in the row.. Now that being said, there are systems out here on average that wont give you more than 4-5 losers in a row.. I know that's a bold statement, but if you understand how the market works then you will realize the market has to move a certain way.. ALWAYS.. The market will ALWAYS make double tops, the market will ALWAYS make a pull back, the market will ALWAYS have a breakout, the market will ALWAYS have some type of support & resistance.. Now it's up to you figure out which system you will use to trade this predictable market..

Martingale is only used to recover your string of losses much quicker.. It's not a method used on determining what direction the market will go.. If people would actually sit down and think... they would realize that after every loss your possibility of having a winning trade is actually increased, not decreased..

Most people still will be against martingale and bash everything I have said.. I'm cool with that.. But remember these two things.. One, your system is what will determine your probability of success or failure. Not simply doubling your lot size after a loss. And two, the market has to go up or down.. Until that doesn't happen anymore martingale will always work... ALWAYS..

P.S. Make sure you withdraw profit and pay yourself..

LOL!

Priceless.

I nominate this for Most Useless Post of the Quarter.

P.S. Welcome to my ignore list.

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from MarketAddict:

...if you understand how the market works then you will realize the market has to move a certain way.. ALWAYS.

The only thing the market ALWAYS has to do is stop moving lower when it hits $0.

Quote from MarketAddict:

If people would actually sit down and think... they would realize that after every loss your possibility of having a winning trade is actually increased, not decreased..

This was the reasoning I expected in response to my post. This belief is known as the Gambler's Fallacy, which is explained in detail here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

The truth is that after every loss the probability of having a winning trade is exactly the same as the average win rate for the strategy/setup being traded.

If I'm trading a strategy with a 60% win rate and I just had 8 losses in a row, the 9th trade still has a 60% chance of reaching the profit target because:

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from NoDoji:

The only thing the market ALWAYS has to do is stop moving lower when it hits $0.



This was the reasoning I expected in response to my post. This belief is known as the Gambler's Fallacy, which is explained in detail here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

The truth is that after every loss the probability of having a winning trade is exactly the same as the average win rate for the strategy/setup being traded.

If I'm trading a strategy with a 60% win rate and I just had 8 losses in a row, the 9th trade still has a 60% chance of reaching the profit target because:

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

+1

Unfortunately trading systems aren't as reliable as many gambling games which have set probabilities. We only know our winrate from empirical test results.

And if we suffer 8 losses in a row, it may just be chance given our historical winrate or it may be an actual deterioration in our edge. In either case, the Gambler's Fallacy still applies.

What I know for certain is this: my optimal trading fraction decreases a bit with every losing trade and it increases a bit with every winning trade. The logical conclusion is to increase size only when winning.

Martingaling in whatever mutant form the user cares to put it in says to increase size when losing. That "strategy" will inevitably end in failure.

 

[MarketAddict]

Quote from kut2k2:

LOL!

Priceless.

I nominate this for Most Useless Post of the Quarter.

P.S. Welcome to my ignore list.

Funny how people never answer my post with facts but only with vague answers.. I gave you facts.. The market will ALWAYS make double tops, a pull back, a breakout, and support & resistance.. I dear you show me one intraday day chart that doesnt have one of the four things I just mention.. I will personally give you 20k if you can show me.. It's not my fault that you cant build a system around that..

 

[MarketAddict]

Quote from NoDoji:

The only thing the market ALWAYS has to do is stop moving lower when it hits $0.

The market is a business.. A matter of fact, the biggest business in the world.. The same business the government profits from and you really think they would make it go to zero? or better yet, when was the last time you saw the market go to zero? Never... The market has to attract small fish so the big boys could profit from them.. And how do you attract the small fish? By giving them hope.. What is hope? Hope is double tops, support & resistance, breakouts, pullbacks etc.. None of these patterns work 100% of the time, but may work 40%, 50% or even 60% of the time .. And what does this give the small fish? Yup, you have guessed it right.. HOPE.. This is why the market HAS to work a certain way.. Don't believe me? Look at a intraday chart and show me some thing different.. I will personally give you 20k too

Quote from NoDoji:
This was the reasoning I expected in response to my post. This belief is known as the Gambler's Fallacy, which is explained in detail here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

It's not a belief it's a fact.. Let me give you an example.. If you have a intraday range that tried to break out three times.. soon of later that range has to break.. I don't care if that range doesn't break until overnight.. Why does it has to break? Again, the market HAS to work a certain way.. Don't believe me? Look at the charts.. The problem with "Gambler's Fallacy" is, it is only aimed at gamblers.. The market have patterns that work over and over.. How can you actually call this gambling? A matter of fact, I believe you said you trade for a living.. Are you gambling? Are you guessing and blinding buying and selling? I highly doubt that. I know you are to smarter than for that.

Quote from NoDoji:
If I'm trading a strategy win a 60% win rate and I just had 8 losses in a row, the 9th trade still has a 60% chance of reaching the profit target because:

There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

Yes, you are right..There is a random distribution between wins and losses.. but since the market has to work a certain way then you should be confident after a loss your possibility of having a winning trade is actually increased, not decreased.. This is a fact, not a belief.. I already proved this above..

There are people trading for a living without martingale.. So I don't know why it's so hard for people to believe a person can't trade with martingale.. I rather people say "you know what, martingale isn't for me"..

If you have a decent size account you can still be a profitable trader only winning once on every 10 trades.. But this is the worst case scenario… There are plenty of strategies that will give you less loses in the row.. people just have to do their research. Now if a person isn't able to win once out of every 10 trades then that person should go get a 9 to 5… Trading isn't for them..

 

[kid.fx.cross]

one out of every ten? I should be so lucky. I have four positions on right now, supposedly they are all spread, and every one of them is showing me a loss.

If the tooth fairy ever showed up and guaranteed me one out of ten, I'd be kissing her little ass and martingaling like crazy

 

[Redneck]

Quote from MarketAddict:

Funny how people never answer my post with facts but only with vague answers.. I gave you facts.. The market will ALWAYS make double tops, a pull back, a breakout, and support & resistance.. I dear you show me one intraday day chart that doesnt have one of the four things I just mention.. I will personally give you 20k if you can show me.. It's not my fault that you cant build a system around that..

You want facts….how about I oblige you then

==============

Facts;

Yes the mkt always creates DT’s, PB’s, BO’s, S&R – even Trends..., RET's... and Reversals – on every TF imaginable

=============

More Facts;

The questions are;

When

Is this the time

Is this the one

Will this hold / work

How long will it /them/ this hold / work

How much must I risk finding out

================

Final Fact

You…, me…, everyone – will never know the answer(s) – till it’s happening / as its happening / and only after it has happened…, and even then – in as little as few ticks to eternity – the answer(s) may / likely will – change

Uncertainty can be a bitch

==============

Those are the irrefutable facts

Building a system around these facts is doable… but not nearly as easy as you are attempting to make it seem

==============

btw, one additional fact;

It is never your fault for another’s success – or failure…

==============

Now may I suggest you get the hell off your high horse and quit bullshitting

Feel free to prove me / the above facts incorrect

=============

After the fact bullshitter... or trader..... popcorn anyone

RN

 

[bighog]

Quote from MarketAddict:

First of all, people need to be reminded that you don’t need martingale to blow up an account .. Their is so much negativity with martingale. As if it is the main reason why a person will lose. The last time I checked 90% of traders are losing money and I will bet majority of them aren't using martingale at all.. That being said, martingale wont help a horrible system.. NO money management will help a horrible system..

Since we got that out of the way, hopefully you will understand martingale is just an add-on to a system.. Martingale will only work with a system that is average or above average.. I repeat, Martingale will only work with a system that is average or above average.. Holding on to loser hoping the market will come back is a horrible system.. You don't need martingale to blow up an account using that system.. No wonder why people using martingale are always losing.. You should never use martingale base on one trade.. It should base on strings of trades..

Martingale with a system which is even 46% accurate will cause you to be profitable.. But you have to make sure your system doesn't produce a lot of string of losers in a row.. How many losers? That's up to the amount of money in your account. But on average you better be able to handle 8-10 losers in the row.. Now that being said, there are systems out here on average that wont give you more than 4-5 losers in a row.. I know that's a bold statement, but if you understand how the market works then you will realize the market has to move a certain way.. ALWAYS.. The market will ALWAYS make double tops, the market will ALWAYS make a pull back, the market will ALWAYS have a breakout, the market will ALWAYS have some type of support & resistance.. Now it's up to you figure out which system you will use to trade this predictable market..

Martingale is only used to recover your string of losses much quicker.. It's not a method used on determining what direction the market will go.. If people would actually sit down and think... they would realize that after every loss your possibility of having a winning trade is actually increased, not decreased..

Most people still will be against martingale and bash everything I have said.. I'm cool with that.. But remember these two things.. One, your system is what will determine your probability of success or failure. Not simply doubling your lot size after a loss. And two, the market has to go up or down.. Until that doesn't happen anymore martingale will always work... ALWAYS..

P.S. Make sure you withdraw profit and pay yourself..

Forget martingale and take a few steps back and try to see "a market" and ask yourself: What makes a market? What drives it?

There is no mkt without the exchange of goods or services. Humans exchange items for their utility, money is a utility. Therefore without humans exchanging things there can be no so called mkt. Nature itself is a natural mkt, water, air, temps, dirt, etc, etc are exchanged for the utility of life itself.

The behavior of humans is what makes a mkt. Your contention that the mkt controls the players is all wet.

I repeat: Human behavior is what causes a double top, a double cross of the angel, a test of the moving average, a trend, a range....well you get the picture.

The players are the mkt, they trade their money for gain.

There is no market without human behavior causing price to change, price patterns are a reflection of the interaction among the players.......put yourself in a BUY that just got filled and out of the blue price goes up 20 ticks, was that caused by the mkt on its own or did another player send in a big BUY order at the mkt?

You said: Martingale with a system which is even 46% accurate will cause you to be profitable.. But you have to make sure your system doesn't produce a lot of string of losers in a row..

Really!! Is it really that easy...........

PS: I will also put this thread on DONE because you remind me of market surfer..........a cousin?

 

[Visaria]

Quote from kid.fx.cross:

one out of every ten? I should be so lucky. I have four positions on right now, supposedly they are all spread, and every one of them is showing me a loss.

If the tooth fairy ever showed up and guaranteed me one out of ten, I'd be kissing her little ass and martingaling like crazy

The win /loss rate thingy applies only when the trades are INDEPENDENT of each other.