Marketsurfer's bold gold proclamation
- Thread starter marketsurfer
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Long term (several years out), it is true, the Dollar is in big trouble, and PM's will have their greatest gains at that time.
Medium term (next couple of years), there is still a large amount of deleveraging and deflation to go through, and as the equities, RE and commodities markets contract again, the Dollar will likely be seen as a "safe haven" (as crazy as that sounds). Therefore, during the next couple of years PM's will likely struggle or contract as well.
Short term, fears of deflation have subsided for many investors and even the Fed, who announced yesterday they will be terminating their Treasury purchasing shortly (or so they say). This will likely continue to give more fuel to the market rally, as well as commodities and a lower Dollar, all of which is short term bullish for PM's. This is why I believe new highs for gold are extremely likely this year before the next deflationary wave hits, and calls for gold to go down first are premature, and in particular any such attempts to put actual number caps on where gold will go in the short term is a fool's game.
That can be said of any call made by anyone, ever.
Making predictions doesn't bother me (although it's a mug's game, and the only way to trade is to trade what you see, not what you predict will happen sometime in the future). What bothers me is when these pikers call a top, see it blown away, call another top, see it blown away, call another top, see that one blown away, then finally call a 4th top and, when markets go down, start crowing about how they made the right call. Which is what surf has done several times, by my count (although those calls were in different instruments. Equally as wrong as this one, but not in gold).
No ofense meant, but trading what you see is a mistatement of fact at best, delusional at worst. Unless you can see the future, your making entries on what you "think" will happen. All you can see is what happened, so how are you trading what you see? Every trader speculates on what will happen in the future regardless of baseless platitudes like "trade what you see".
Gold 600 prior to 1000--- time frame indeterminate at this time.
best wishes,
surf
surf
Quote from marketsurfer:
Trading what you see is a mistatement of fact at best, delusional at worst. Unless you can see the future, your making entries on what you "think" will happen. All you can see is what happened, so how are you trading what you see? Every trader speculates on what will happen in the future regardless of baseless platitudes like "trade what you see".
Gold 600 prior to 1000--- time frame indeterminate at this time.
surf
surf
There is speculation, and then there is speculation. Yes, every trader not having a crystal ball cannot know for sure the outcome of a particular trade. But by analyzing all the indicators and factors in a particular setup, whether fundamental, technical or otherwise, one can give themselves a more favorable risk/reward ratio.
But there are some calls or predictions which simply seem to be completely without rhyme or reason. Your short on GS for instance, where you were convinced of an imminent "melt down". Why in the world would you hold short (or even long) a stock going into earnings, unless you had inside information on what those earnings would be? And even then, assuming you know how the market will react to the earnings? That's a high risk/reward trade if ever I saw one, no better than going to Vegas. Unsurprising that you got your head handed to you on that one, it was a trade that made no sense whatsoever, you might as well have bought lottery tickets.
Likewise, I do find it quite funny how you've made your gold predictions in such iron-clad fashion with hard numbers attached to it, while then admitting that it is impossible to see the future.
The rational trade would be to stick with the trend until it ends, and the trend in gold has been up for several years, and remains within striking distance of its all time high. Trying to get out in front of it and pick the top at this point in time is once again a dangerous game you're playing, my friend.
And more importantly, the best traders don't attempt to pick tops and bottoms or exact turning points. They wait for them to be established, then take advantage of the "meat" of the new trend. You are not attempting to do that, nor were you when you started this thread, you have been attempting to pick a top the whole time. Pure amateur hour, sorry to say.
He was way wrong, No ands, ifs or buts about it.
Up 90% overall YTD, here. It would have been a similar sized loss instead if he had been right. The difference to me was at least $600,000 because that was the gain.
Not sure if I should fade his ridiculous calls next time or not. Even broken clocks are right every once in a while.
Up 90% overall YTD, here. It would have been a similar sized loss instead if he had been right. The difference to me was at least $600,000 because that was the gain.
Not sure if I should fade his ridiculous calls next time or not. Even broken clocks are right every once in a while.
I wouldn't say golds trend is up for the last 18 months. Been going sideways. Is the trend bending?
I don't know.
One thing I do know is that a market call without a timeframe is pretty useless.
I don't know.
One thing I do know is that a market call without a timeframe is pretty useless.
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