Marketsurfer's bold gold proclamation

[thriftybob]

Quote from syswizard:

Once this temporary commodity bubble bursts, we're in for wicked bout of DEFLATION.....not good for gold prices.

And yes, your house will continue to be worth less and less over time. No one in our neighborhood can sells theirs, so they're trying to rent them. Problem is: everyone is doing it.

Deflation doesn't affect gold. Look at the 1930's. There was a terrible deflation, and the solution was to devalue the dollar and increase the value of gold as measured in dollars.

Gold is real wealth, paper dollars are just promises, and if my guess is correct, they will be promises not kept.

If you want to talk about what affects gold, its panic. Panic over Russia invading Afganistan caused gold to spike to $850 back in 1980. But that panic caused gold to be "overdone" as I see it. When the panic subsided, gold fell back to $500's. The run from $500's down to $250 was caused by central Bank manipulation, and going back to $1200 or so will get the price back to normal as compared to the cost to mine it.

Longer term, like 3 to 5 years out, I expect gold to be $3000 to $5000 anyway, as the value of the dollar collapses under the weight of the rising debt and structural deficits. Its not a function of gold as per se, but rather a distrust of paper promises that will move it there.

 

[marketsurfer]

let me ask a very basic question--why does gold have value?

scarcity? there are far rarer metals.


seems to me it's simply perception, like any other currency.


what am i missing??


surf

 

[jem]

ah the old question - what is value?
Gold make nice grills, has good properties for a/v equipment. Apparently it has some industrial uses. but when there is is blood on the streets won't you want - food water and ammo?

I saw a post by an et guy suggesting really real need enough land to be self sufficient and feed our families. That concept is haunting me. Where can I buy some cheap land like that close to san diego?

 

[thriftybob]

What is different is that unlike your digital confetti money, it takes a lot of cost and effort to dilute the supply of gold.

EVERY paper currency ever tried in the history of the earth has failed to hold its value.

What makes you think the US Dollar is immune to the weaknesses of men? They just can't resist creating more of them. Pretty soon we'll ALL be millionaires.

 

[Daal]

Quote from marketsurfer:

let me ask a very basic question--why does gold have value?
surf

who cares, why try to fade a multi century trend

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Daal:

who cares, why try to fade a multi century trend

its a cyclical product driven by hype.

In december 2006, gold was <600--- as it will be again by april 1 2009.

stocks have a long term upward drift too, better be careful shorting them.
surf

 

[thriftybob]

IMO, in the next year, you will learn just how valuable your digital confetti is NOT.

The only way it can hold its value is if they stop printing more of it, and that's not going to happen because they don't want a depression on their hands. The alternative is inflation, be is admitted or not, and that's what we're getting.

 

[Daal]

Quote from marketsurfer:

its a cyclical product driven by hype.

In december 2006, gold was <600--- as it will be again by april 1 2009.

stocks have a long term upward drift too, better be careful shorting them.
surf

in 80 Saturday night live was talking about gold. we are no where near a 1980 type collapse

 

[daddyeaux]

Quote from marketsurfer:

let me ask a very basic question--why does gold have value?

scarcity? there are far rarer metals.


seems to me it's simply perception, like any other currency.


what am i missing??


surf

it is store of value, in 1920, a oz. of gold would buy you a custom 3 piece suit...

and today, an oz. of gold would buy you the same suit

a dollar held in the bank would have suffered a massive devaluation

as seen in attachment

the Fed. is thusly screwing people who save money in low yielding garbage, namely their own paper

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from Biog:

Welcome aboard 0 zero respect for marketsurfer train

Oh I don't know about that.

Surf called the top in CROX long before it even thought about taking the eagle's dive that it's been on, hell look where is is now ... in this shitter, just where he said it would be.