Marketsurfer says short shake shack

At the same time monthly chart isn't bearish at all, you told Surf shorting SHAK into an uptrend was silly, yet you want to do a similar thing with AAPL. Why not simply buy pullbacks via signals on shorter time frame until the time monthly chart registers at least one bearish bar?


Screenshot_2015-05-30-11-56-10~2.jpg
 
why would you want to try and pick a top or pick a bottom in any market? There is no need to. I just dont understand WHY traders want to do that. If anyone knows the answer please let me know.
 
romik said:
At the same time monthly chart isn't bearish at all, you told Surf shorting SHAK into an uptrend was silly, yet you want to do a similar thing with AAPL. Why not simply buy pullbacks via signals on shorter time frame until the time monthly chart registers at least one bearish bar?


View attachment 153260
More...

Apple is not anymore in bull market because you got now a new high lower from one month ago. I like Apple RSI which could be an orange flag.
But I admit Apple is not in a bear market too for the moment. It shows weakness, to be confirmed.
129 may hold or not.
Wait and see.

CM
 
londonkid said:
why would you want to try and pick a top or pick a bottom in any market? There is no need to. I just dont understand WHY traders want to do that. If anyone knows the answer please let me know.
More...

Well, maybe because it makes lot of money, maybe because I did it by the past (2012 top in Apple for example, bottom in Alcatel, Peugeot in 2013 etc), I do it now (top in Airbus, Dax, bottom in oil WTI 43 dollars) and will make it for the future?
I will quote Vic Sperandeo, 70% annual performance on average during 15 years :
"the fastest and most risk free way to make money in the markets is to identify a change of trend in a market as early as possible, take your position (long or short), ride the trend, and close your position before or shortly after the trend reverses again. Any market professional will tell you that it is impossible to buy at the lows and sell at the highs consistently; but with practice, it is very possible to catch 60 to 80% of many intermediate-term and long-term market movements."
But of course, you are free to believe I and Vic Sperandeo are liars or mytho.
Or work harder and learn.

CM
 
Last edited:
londonkid said:
This is contraversial but when I trade flat directional price on a timescale of a few hours to a couple of weeks I do not pay attention to fundamentals. I am much more concerned with what the institutions are doing in that instrument and how they leave tell tale signs in the chart (even though many of them dont look at charts).

If institutions are going to buy they will look to load up when price is going down they need that liquidity. Looking at the daily chart of SHAK it is very clear to me that instituions are very likely long from $72-$80 right when the retail minded shorts were getting juiced up and shorting. It's easy and reliable money for them.

Humans are hard wired to buy when its going up and sell when its going down. Institutions do the opposite.
More...

Not controversial at all. Fundamentals don't matter when you're trading over a couple of hours because whatever fundamentals you buy (sell) at the start will be the same fundamentals that you sell (buy) at the end.
 
Picking tops and bottoms might seem to have great reward but it is alsovery low accuracy, therefore, in the end, it all balances out.

Great reward and high accuracy only exists in your dreams.
 
Chris Mac said:
Well, maybe because it makes lot of money, maybe because I did it by the past (2012 top in Apple for example, bottom in Alcatel, Peugeot in 2013 etc), I do it now (top in Airbus, Dax, bottom in oil WTI 43 dollars) and will make it for the future?
I will quote Vic Sperandeo, 70% annual performance on average during 15 years :
"the fastest and most risk free way to make money in the markets is to identify a change of trend in a market as early as possible, take your position (long or short), ride the trend, and close your position before or shortly after the trend reverses again. Any market professional will tell you that it is impossible to buy at the lows and sell at the highs consistently; but with practice, it is very possible to catch 60 to 80% of many intermediate-term and long-term market movements."
But of course, you are free to believe I and Vic Sperandeo are liars or mytho.
Or work harder and learn.

CM
More...

I think wires are crossed here. I am happy to look for shorts once a trend reversal has been made and structure has broken down. I would then naturally look to sell when price has moved up quickly in an inefficient manner perhaps collecting early shorts buy stops. What I never try to do is to call the actual top.

if you can consistently call actual tops and bottoms thats great for you. I have no reason to not believe you, all your posts seem intelligent and grounded. I have been fortunate to meet 3 traders (seperately) who are very profitable and talented so I know what is possible in this business.

GL
 
Chris Mac said:
Well, I agree Surf. Apple is a good short candidate.
Sure, shorting Shake Shack was a mistake. But don't think someone is enough stupid to do only mistakes in his trading. I made tons but I am still here.
Reminder :
In 2000, Microsoft was the strongest company in the world. -66%
In 2012, Apple was the strongest company in the world. -45%.
In 2015, Apple is the strongest company in the world. - ... ? At least back to 100 dollars.
Good fundamentals don't mean good price action.
And ugly fundamentals don't mean bad price action.

CM
More...
Please direct us to the postings with entry , exit and stop . Thank you
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top