"Marketsurfer is correct: There is no Trends!" --- There are only Turns!

hyperscalper said:
No I'm just saying that, assuming we can identify or define "timeframes", that the higher timeframe "trends" will have more durability and lower timeframes less temporal stability, in general.

Price movement should probably be considered like audio, where the overall waveform can be decomposed through Fourier-like analysis into sub-frequencies of sine waves. Just the common sense observation that "trend" cannot be defined without some reference to "timeframe" since an uptrend which lasts 4 hours, say, consists of lots of "lower timeframe" pullbacks, and we see this "sawtooth" fundamental form.

The way I see things is this: Market Makers trade against the entire market simultaneously. To retail Buyers, MM will Sell. From retail Sellers, MM will Buy. So I propose the concept of "trend" or "momentum" be better understood in terms of MM's "inventory". If MM gets too much Retail Buying, then MM's inventory is "short" and we are at the peak of the sawtooth, so MM will drop price to get Retail Selling, thus neutralizing or moving net inventory to "long".

In all cases, estimates of MM's inventory or long/short/neutral stance must also be referred to a specific timeframe. Over a longer timeframe MM may be Long, and experiencing excessive Retail Selling; but over shorter timeframes, MM can easily be Short, and experiencing excessive Retail Buying. Remember MM takes the opposite side of all Retail trading, as most traders know.

I used to do a lot of this "inventory analysis" from Market Maker's perspective in order to find pivot points or "trend reversals". MM becomes Long (and taking risk) and then moves price in the other direction to become Short (and take risk). This maximizes Market Maker's profit, through "playing" the sentiments of the entire Retail population. In Day Trading, at least. So it's one way of thinking about, or explaining persistence of trending; and anticipating reversals of those same trends.

In effect, "trending" continues because MM is moving overall inventory from a Long through neutral to a Short stance (or the reverse process). So a prolonged decline will attract many Retail Sellers, from whom MM will be Buying of course. This results in MM becoming "long" (too much buying and not enough selling). So then when MM gets "enough" on the Long side; the "trend" is reversed and the price is persistently driven upwards, which attracts Retail Buyers, to which MM is selling off its Long inventory through a neutral inventory and eventually to a Short inventory.

So MM is driving prices up and down for its own purposes. I realize this is a little bit off topic and I'm sticking my neck out, but the only reason prices "trend" is that MM wants that continued movement in order to "tempt" retail players to enter the market in a particular
direction for MM's purposes. BUT that's a long story probably best dealt with in a different thread...

HyperScalper
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Interesting ideas which seem accurate to me intuitively, thanks!!
 
marketsurfer said:
Hey bro,

How is your luck holding out? You making money today? How about posting dated or otherwise confirmed P/L statements on a daily basis? You were happy to post the lucky FB trades, no sarcasm, i was impressed---- but one day means nothing. Maybe you are a market savant--- i really don't know--- how about showing me? Can you do it?
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Yes surf - I made a profit today - little over $6,900.00 - call it luck if you wish (fact is I had to dig myself out of a hole - but dig out nonetheless I did)

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No I will not post daily PnLs - first it would be PnL's.., then tax returns.., as the PnLs must be photoshopped (Lord knows it impossible to be consistently profitable - they must be fake)

There are however two members who have cart blanche to see em anytime they wish


Convincing you or anyone else is the least of my concern

It about my ego..., and how I could easily become consumed by it..., then the only way is down..., and down hard


I will reserve the right to post em at my discretion - just to shut idiots up

Savant - no..., simply a simpleminded dumbass trader



Now..., have your fun.., make your comments - just know this - I am the one banking the money

cheerios

RN
 
Redneck said:
Yes surf - I made a profit today - little over $6,900.00 - call it luck if you wish (fact is I had to dig myself out of a hole - but dig out nonetheless I did)

======================

No I will not post daily PnLs - first it would be PnL's.., then tax returns.., as the PnLs must be photoshopped (Lord knows it impossible to be consistently profitable - they must be fake)

There are however two members who have cart blanche to see em anytime they wish


Convincing you or anyone else is the least of my concern

It about my ego..., and how I could easily become consumed by it..., then the only way is down..., and down hard


I will reserve the right to post em at my discretion - just to shut idiots up

Savant - no..., simply a simpleminded dumbass trader



Now..., have your fun.., make your comments - just know this - I am the one banking the money

cheerios

RN
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Ok, brother. I have no ill will toward you and wish you the best. There is some serious truth in your post. Heck, if you are banking coin, more power to you!! Ex-redneck surf
 
marketsurfer said:
I am sorry to hear that. and I am not here to fight.

We share our research, so I take your response to mean that you really don't have any. No, I don't have a PhD or any high level degrees-- I am a law school drop out. However, I know how to identify and differentiate BS and intelligence--- not to mention being married to an ex central banker micro-structure PhD who helps myself and my highly pedigreed associates on these issues. Therefore, I trust our research rather than anonymous names on the internet. You know who I am , who are you? surf[/]
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So if i don't share my research, that must mean that i don't have any. Ok. So if say, Goldman, Sachs or Jim Simons or Pfizer or Google or the CIA refuses to share their research, that accordingly, must mean they don't have any either. Lol. (btw i'm not comparing myself to these august bodies, just illustrating the principle).

I'm glad you are intelligent and happily married to an ex central banker and that you trust your own research. This is how it should be.

Having said that, i did point out that the master himself, Mr Soros, declares there to be trends in the stock market. Surely that would at least lead you to question the possibility that there might be. Could it be that your research, conducted by VN himself, could be wrong? Is there even a slight possibility? After all, VN is not known publicly as someone who admits to mistakes.
 
Cant talk about trends without defining what trend means to you *and* on which chart type and setting, not doing so, opens a world of ambiguity in a profession riddled with it.

How the experienced participants of the thread allow this to continue is simply outstanding.

A big pile of shit of discussion that leads to a waste of time.
 
Visaria said:
So if i don't share my research, that must mean that i don't have any. Ok. So if say, Goldman, Sachs or Jim Simons or Pfizer or Google or the CIA refuses to share their research, that accordingly, must mean they don't have any either. Lol. (btw i'm not comparing myself to these august bodies, just illustrating the principle).

I'm glad you are intelligent and happily married to an ex central banker and that you trust your own research. This is how it should be.

Having said that, i did point out that the master himself, Mr Soros, declares there to be trends in the stock market. Surely that would at least lead you to question the possibility that there might be. Could it be that your research, conducted by VN himself, could be wrong? Is there even a slight possibility? After all, VN is not known publicly as someone who admits to mistakes.
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No disrespect meant. I enjoy your postings on here. Sure, not revealing propritary research that contains an actionable edge is a must. But I fail to see how proving a trend exists would be propritary.

As far as VN goes-- i have never seen evidence that what he says regarding stock market trends is not accurate. even you will not demonstrate the opposite claiming its propritary. Regardless of the reasoning why not --- i am open to admit the error in what i have seen over and over. Just show me. Surf
 
Scaleout.Scalper said:
Cant talk about trends without defining what trend means to you *and* on which chart type and setting, not doing so, opens a world of ambiguity in a profession riddled with it.

How the experienced participants of the thread allow this to continue is simply outstanding.

A big pile of shit of discussion that leads to a waste of time.
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scaleout scalper has pretty much summed up how one would begin. Definition is the 1st step.

I leave it now surf, if ok, best of luck.
 
In a practical sense, i would define a trend by being able to quantify how many down or up price steps plus whatever will increase the chances that the next step or series of steps will be in the same direction.

That is impossible


therefore the concept of trends is meaningless prior to the entry of the trade. Obviously, once you enter a directional trade, the trend becomes "real" to you and the trade must be managed. surf


Ps an example

6 - 5 minute bars move higher-- the volume is increasing. Does this increase or decrease the odds that the next bar or series be in the same direction? Obviously, there is no way to know. This is why thinking about trends is just dumb and trends only exist in hindsight. Peace
 
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Problem is---Stock indices trend and trend well especially on the higher time frames. If you deny this , then that is your problem. To dispute that trends exist shows the lower level of market understanding that one possesses. Do not trust someone who indicates that stock indices do not trend. That individual is not capable of carrying on meaningful discussions concerning markets and market timing. --No matter how many meet and greets they present at. ----Thank you for your time----
 
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