"Marketsurfer is correct: There is no Trends!" --- There are only Turns!
- Thread starter OddTrader
- Start date
4 profitable days in a row, +$1400 since the 15th, no hoper for sure
That's called minced meat walking, nothing to be excited about.
Trends are real all right, but when they start and when they end is random, in all time frames.
There are multiple threads that marketsurfer started regarding the existence of stock trends.
If you get 9 heads in a row when flipping a coin, are you in a heads trend?
For those of you who are stat inclined--- Any trend that exists can be quantified and its departure from randomness can be measured with the usual statistical procedures, such as confidence intervals and likelihoods. Serial correlation coefficients, regression coefficients of current changes versus past changes, and magnitudes of the impact of past moving averages on the future, distributions of the length of runs, the correllelogram, the expected waiting times between peaks and valleys, survival statistics. All these techniques are very good at discovering any non-random elements.
None of these indicate trending behavior in the stock market. Trends do exist in other markets but not stocks.
surf
They're not random in the NQ, but perhaps you trade something else.
Well, a hundred years ago, the Dow was around 60. Now it's at 17,370.
Sure looks like a trend to me.
That's an upward drift, different from a trend. If theres a trend, you can quantify it. How many upmoves increase the chances that the next move will be up?
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You have been fooled by randomness. Remember, just because its random does not mean you cant make money from it.
The next move is always up if the direction of those people who matter don't change. There maybe intermittent counter-trend interludes. But these don't change the trend.
