Marketsentiment right now - everyone is betting on a bull...

[retaildaytrader]

http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/2010/12/09/cboe-put-call-ratio-everyones-betting-on-the-bull/

"According to Rennie at MarketTells, 3 consecutive days of 2:1 call buying has only happened 7 times since 2001. In five of those instances, stocks (S&P 500) were down the next month."

"Jason at SentimenTrader looks at it a bit differently. He notes that the past 5 days consecutively placed the ratio above its 6 month moving average by 15% (or more). This has only occurred 8 times historically when the stock market has been near or at a high. Results going forward are mixed to down."

 

[galvinlee888]

Quote from retaildaytrader:

http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/2010/12/09/cboe-put-call-ratio-everyones-betting-on-the-bull/

"According to Rennie at MarketTells, 3 consecutive days of 2:1 call buying has only happened 7 times since 2001. In five of those instances, stocks (S&P 500) were down the next month."

"Jason at SentimenTrader looks at it a bit differently. He notes that the past 5 days consecutively placed the ratio above its 6 month moving average by 15% (or more). This has only occurred 8 times historically when the stock market has been near or at a high. Results going forward are mixed to down."

so you are shorting the market now ??

I just add my Long position, so as a average investor, I will loss my shirt next week ?


Go Long and LONG, why fight the trend ??

 

[007Arb]

Sentiment is indeed frothy and worrisome for the bulls. But we have never seen this type of backdrop before with the Fed trying to prop up equity prices and the stumuli from the forthcoming tax legislation. Last year the Fed wanted to prop up junk bond prices so corporations could refiance their debt and the result was the best year on record for junk bonds. So no telling what could happen to equities going forward. But please, we need a breather.

 

[brokenmarkets]

market manipulation either private entitiy or the fed always backfires

why do you think market manpulation is illegal

the market is always right. market manipulation end badly like major correction that nobody can stop..not even the fed..

the housing crash of 2008 fraud house of cards collapse
the 1999/2000 pump job crash.
the fed is doing a pump and dump job. like many pump jobs.

i would put new large positions in this market..this market is too thin and upside is limited..downside is risky..but charts is saying every resistance has become support.....

you need another black swan or change of policy of fed fro the market to correct. or free market again... longs keep talking p/e of 20 well p/e can change to no earnings..and you got pig you can't sell. or companies risk of bankrtupcy. wou would have thougth that citigroup in 2006 $50/share paying 5% dividend would risk bankrutpcy in 2009??????

and for gold and oil companies there fortunes or based on oil prices and most ofthe economy is still relying on the consumer spending.l......with inflation rising costo living ..consumers has less spending power...

the risk is stagflation...people are unemployed or making same salary but prices for things we need like food,gas,health,educdtion rise...and china would be increasing it's prices if the yuan was to appreciate....===resulting in lower standards of living...with falling dollar everythign is more expensive if you need to import. these macro pricing is result of money supply increase. but no jobs are inreased..tax revenue is same...stagflation...

Quote from 007Arb:

Sentiment is indeed frothy and worrisome for the bulls. But we have never seen this type of backdrop before with the Fed trying to prop up equity prices and the stumuli from the forthcoming tax legislation. Last year the Fed wanted to prop up junk bond prices so corporations could refiance their debt and the result was the best year on record for junk bonds. So no telling what could happen to equities going forward. But please, we need a breather.

 

[nutmeg]

I pretty much follow presidential cycles, this quarter and first quarter of next year are bullish (based on mid term election years).

In spite of the criticism of Bernanke I think he has a handle on the situation although I couldn't tell you why because I haven't a clue, just my gut.

 

[galvinlee888]

Quote from galvinlee888:

so you are shorting the market now ??

I just add my Long position, so as a average investor, I will loss my shirt next week ?


Go Long and LONG, why fight the trend ??

See what I am saying last Friday ? Market up again ..

I will LONG again ..

 

[i_c_fed_people]

Quote from galvinlee888:

See what I am saying last Friday ? Market up again ..

I will LONG again ..

Im the same as you, dude.
I swear, most of this site must love giving their money away!
Im about the only consitent long trader of the ES in the ESjournal.
Its easy easy money. Been posting longs everyday for ages now.

Come and post trades in the ES journal with me.
Be nice to have another person not fighting where the market MUST go over time....UP!!

 

[galvinlee888]

Quote from i_c_fed_people:

Im the same as you, dude.
I swear, most of this site must love giving their money away!
Im about the only consitent long trader of the ES in the ESjournal.
Its easy easy money. Been posting longs everyday for ages now.

Come and post trades in the ES journal with me.
Be nice to have another person not fighting where the market MUST go over time....UP!!

LOL - I am not LONG evertime, but this time, definitely LONG..

Anyone try to be smart and fight the trend ??

Adding my LONG position again ..

 

[galvinlee888]

Quote from galvinlee888:

LOL - I am not LONG evertime, but this time, definitely LONG..

Anyone try to be smart and fight the trend ??

Adding my LONG position again ..

The market seemed going UP again regardless what are the bad news. The bottom line is that we don't have any seller in this market (except those who claim to be smart traders that try to fight the trend and loss $$). All the big fat find managers will hold on their LONG position - who want to be look like stupid to sell now ?

Another good day, will keep my LONG positions overnight.

The market most likely will be flat or make small pull back in the open tomorrow, but i am thinking it will move higher again after that. My $0.001 cent