Markets top imminent, or "melt-up"?

comagnum said:
We need a massive rinse job on the VIX first before the market can take good hit. Way to many people betting on the market going down - this crowd has to capitulate first before we get a good some real volatility back in the mix.

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you misinterpreted this. People who "short VIX" do not bet "on the market going down". They are actually betting on the market NOT going down, at least not by a lot. They bet on a continuation of the "0-0.2pc up every day" trend, and an even more predictable, slow and steady rise.
 
comagnum said:
We need a massive rinse job on the VIX first before the market can take good hit. Way to many people betting on the market going down - this crowd has to capitulate first before we get a good some real volatility back in the mix.
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Ever think that could be a lot who are hedging?
 
comagnum said:
Way to many people betting on the market going down - this crowd has to capitulate first before we get a good some real volatility back in the mix.
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Out of curiosity, doesn't this completely contradict what @Robert Morse just said in this post here?

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...-vix-short-sellers.314207/page-3#post-4532348

So on the one hand, you're saying too many people are betting on the market going down, which would cause VIX to go up, and yet Robert is saying that he is seeing too many people betting that the VIX will always come back to the lows, and hence betting on not too much market volatility.

Unless I'm misunderstanding something, I see two different opinions from two respected posters. Are more people playing this market long or short, from the point of view of what the crowd is doing? Surely if you think its gonna drop you wouldn't be shorting the VIX.

I guess what I'm saying is that every time I come across a post that seems to indicate that one side is very heavy, there is just as much reliable info pointing to the opposite position.
 
Gotcha said:
I guess what I'm saying is that every time I come across a post that seems to indicate that one side is very heavy,

there is just as much reliable info pointing to the opposite position
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Welcome to the Market, Gotcha...Place your bets, Place your bets,
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What will it be, what will it be,
 
Isn't there usually a warning which is some large key player company(s) falling over?
Is there anything like that happening atm?
I can't think of any.
Are realestate companies going bust?
 
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