Markets top imminent, or "melt-up"?

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

Top pickers so far have been wrong.

Advocates of "market melt-up" still looking good.

Chart guy that I am... and while not "pounding the table" with any prediction... I can envision this rally continuing for perhaps another year. IOW... it could be that we are not even "all that close" to the ultimate top.

The $DAX chart is as good as any for revealing "where we are".
 
Last edited:
Just last week I commented that the long term charts look a bit more like 1994, 2006, and 1986...being the 'pivot' from ordinary growth into the bubble. Not very useful for the short term--at lots of potential geopolitical (and domestic) catalysts to end the orgy. But nothing to suggest the end is nigh...and least IMHO.
 
I think the equity market will continue to move up and perhaps accelerate with perhaps the surprise duo outcome of an increase in volatility (normally vol decreases as markets move up)
 
We need a massive rinse job on the VIX first before the market can take good hit. Way to many people betting on the market going down - this crowd has to capitulate first before we get a good some real volatility back in the mix.

upload_2017-10-16_16-8-36.png
 
You need to look at the net spec position as a percentage of open interest. If you do that, you'll see that the trade is NOT crowded at all.
 
Scataphagos said:
I can envision this rally continuing for perhaps another year. IOW... it could be that we are not even "all that close" to the ultimate top.
More...
For sure, even if we are close to the top, we will have months and months to sell / short the market. It is never a buying or selling opportunity but rather periods of buying or selling opportunity.
On a ST basis, right now I think there are nice short opportunities, you just have to wait supports to break. And again, rebounds will be strong too.

CM
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top