Someday oil is going to find its bottom and the news cycle will switch over to the Middle East, but I dont think it happens before the election.
Markets to print money into fed rate announcement Wednesday
- Thread starter S2007S
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Someday oil is going to find its bottom and the news cycle will switch over to the Middle East, but I dont think it happens before the election.
I think only a 50bps cut will move the market higher. The other 2 scenarios and the market goes lower initially and then probably comes back in a day or two.
I haven't seen any news except a pandemic, Chinese devaluation or blind Fed QT that really rocked the markets since the March 2009 lows.
Today they said that if the markets do not get a 50 basis point cut that small caps, homebuilders and the rest of the groups of stocks rallying on this possible news will sell off hard. I still don't think it matters either way, if we get any selling the markets will erase all losses by Friday aa the dow continues to break new high after new high....
The markets were promised rate cuts since March 2024 and look at what has happened since....its rallied through and through again.
Its still a bull market, the odd favour a upside move this week, but its no where near a 100% certain. The odds are closer to something like 60% than 100%.
Thinking in certainties is silly because the market prices things in. Even if the FOMC comes out with something bullish no one knows how much the market has already priced that in.
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Right IWM & XHB just shot up like a cannon on 50bps. They will get killed if it doesn't happen but the home builders will come back as they always do. The US simply refuses to built adequate housing units for the newer generations to buy starter homes so the home builders can only go higher.
This market, since the Yen carry trade unwind, is very defensive. XLU XLRE & XLP outperform almost on a daily basis. Even today they were up 60bps vs SPY's 12bps.
So Would this be the first time in US stock market history that the dow is at repeated constant historic highs while rates are being forced to be cut by wallstreet ?????
Have fed funds rates ever been cut at market historical highs???????
Homebulders and xlu and are trading irradicaly ...XLU up nearly 25% ytd??
Last month nearly 6%
I don't think the yen carry trade is done, I'm probably wrong since this trade has literally been in favor for decades because Everytime it does unwind it lasst a day or 3 and then winds back up for another decade or 2 of free money for those partaking in the yen carry trade.
As for homebuilding and supplies on the market, something has to break, housing prices are just absurb and add in taxes and insurance and I still have no clue how the consumer still does it.
I'm short Nail. Very small amount around 137-140 and will add more if it jumps above 175 this week.
Not the first time in history. It looks like rates were cut in sept and oct 2007 when the DJIA was very near all time highs.
Sept. 18, 2007 -50 4.75%
Oct. 31, 2007 -25 4.50%
Dec. 11, 2007 -25 4.25%
Jan. 22, 2008 -75 3.50%
Jan. 30, 2008 -50 3.00%
Mar. 18, 2008 -75 2.25%
Apr. 30, 2008 -25 2.00%
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The market is going to continue upward for the forseeable future. NASDAQ is just in its offseason.
Utilities and real estate are part of the AI trade.
Its either get onboard with the AI hypetrain or confront the 35 trillion dollar problem.....and don't nobody want to do that.
We are in a War Economy. This is a Tech War.
Utilities and real estate are part of the AI trade.
Its either get onboard with the AI hypetrain or confront the 35 trillion dollar problem.....and don't nobody want to do that.
We are in a War Economy. This is a Tech War.
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