Markets only trend............

T

tomorton

We've all heard it, usually preceded by "Yes, but....." -
"Yes, but markets only trend 20% of the time".

Googling how much of the time markets are said to trend gets the following ranges of percentages -
100 (yes, some people believe this!)
50
40
33
30
25
20
15 to 20
15
12
10-20
They can't all be right, everywhere, all the time.

Although most are sub-50%, there's a big difference between trading something that occurs 10% of the time and something that occurs 40% of the time.

But this trends thing -
It would be interesting to have it confirmed who started this pointless % game, what markets they're talking about, how long ago did they get their stats, whether we're just talking about US markets or all countries or just some countries, whether its the same % in all markets, whether uptrends and downtrends have the same occurrence (and persistence), what time-frames were considered in each market, how did they define a trend, how did they define when the trend started and ended.

Basically, who the hell do they think they are?

If anyone has seen original research on trend occurrence, this would be a great time to showcase how widely read you are and share it. Please.
 
I wrote about it in my early posts either.Good observation.Who even made up this crap about 80% chop!There`s perma-trend going on.
 
The "generalized figures" are all pretty much meaningless anyway, when you appreciate that a "trend" is something that exists only within and with reference to a specified time-frame.

It may be true that within a specified time-frame, most instruments are "trending" for about 20% of the time (and it's easy enough to produce a precise, objective definition of "trending" that will match that parameter - or indeed almost any other, to suit one's perspective!), but most instruments can be made out to be "trending" within some (i.e. unspecified) time-frame, most of the time ... so it's one of those trading-related subjects that begs accurate definitions, in order to be discussed at all meaningfully (though that usually doesn't stop people from discussing it, and sometimes even arguing about it until they're blue in the face
angry-smiley-004.gif
, without doing so!
cheeky-smiley-010.gif
).
 
tomorton said:
We've all heard it, usually preceded by "Yes, but....." -
"Yes, but markets only trend 20% of the time".

Googling how much of the time markets are said to trend gets the following ranges of percentages -
100 (yes, some people believe this!)
50
40
33
30
25
20
15 to 20
15
12
10-20
They can't all be right, everywhere, all the time.

Although most are sub-50%, there's a big difference between trading something that occurs 10% of the time and something that occurs 40% of the time.

But this trends thing -
It would be interesting to have it confirmed who started this pointless % game, what markets they're talking about, how long ago did they get their stats, whether we're just talking about US markets or all countries or just some countries, whether its the same % in all markets, whether uptrends and downtrends have the same occurrence (and persistence), what time-frames were considered in each market, how did they define a trend, how did they define when the trend started and ended.

Basically, who the hell do they think they are?

If anyone has seen original research on trend occurrence, this would be a great time to showcase how widely read you are and share it. Please.
More...
It really doesn’t matter for what is a range in one time frame is a trend in another. So, whatever TF I am trading i use the tools appropriate to the context of PA.

Here is another one. The market is always in a channel. You may not see the channel it is in but it is in a channel, at all times. “Guaranteed” to use some of marketsurfers lingo. LOL
 
Markets are always trending in some timeframe. But the importance is that you can make money out of it. So you need a trend in the "optimal" timeframe to make money. If you trade in seconds timeframes, the potential will be too small. If you trade in the 60 min timeframe the potential is much bigger as the "waves" are bigger. Just check the average difference between high and low in each barchart of each timeframe, you will see the difference in potential already a bit.

My experience is that, if you find a very good trend indicator, 75% of your job is done. The rest is timing entries and exits. If the trendindication is very good the timing is a piece of cake as their timing does not have to be so accurate.
 
The market only 'trends' to a certain degree or extent. -- I mean if it were that easy...as tracing a line in a coloring book...everybody would be millionaires.
Just look at the Journals section of this site...you have people who think they are scientists beating their heads against the wall trying to find the cure for cancer, or a so-called trading Holy Grail. They might as well replace that stuff with their interpersonal feelings and thoughts for the day. A year from now, all those Joes will be gone. To be replaced with a new bunch of random Joes.

You have to truly understand your game...what time frame chart you're trading, and the dynamic and fixed variables along that path that may potentially make the chart move and dance the way it chooses to. It won't always be on your clock.
And will you be open-minded and malleable enough to realize it?
You need to establish initial reasonable, logical expectations...and wait for the subtle or not so subtle cues to verify that.

All I see on this site are a dime-a-dozen, million words. -- I wish I had X-Ray vision to peer into people's trading accounts and see their real-world performance o_O, :caution:
I assume everyone on this site are relatively small people. People who are not ultra successful multi-millionaires and corporate CEO's and the similar like. The upper echelons of society.
So with our tiny accounts...we truly need performance to make this little venture escapade of ours worth our time.

The Magic spot for traders is usually somewhere between Year 5 to 10. That's when the true fruitfulness of their labor truly pours out. You have to pay your initial dues and grind.
That's what I generally picked up from reading/learning about the true, ultra rare and really profitable traders out there.
Kind of like Professional Star Athletes. they don't initially Dominate the Big Leagues...till a little time later at their Prime.

as for you old hound dogs still lingering around here, if you haven't succeeded yet by year 10....chances are you will never....you may have better luck in life opening a coffee cart. or cafe. or candy store. or a cat grooming business.
 
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It's a meaningless discussion and one which completely depends on how trend is defined. When is it a pullback in an up trend and when is it a new down trend? Which time frame? Daily? Monthly? A fast tick chart?

It's better to simply perceive price moving up or down.
 
Laissez Faire said:
It's a meaningless discussion and one which completely depends on how trend is defined. When is it a pullback in an up trend and when is it a new down trend? Which time frame? Daily? Monthly? A fast tick chart?

It's better to simply perceive price moving up or down.
More...

It will always be a meaningless discussion for the simple reason that each person has other knowledge and lack of knowledge. To have an objective discussion everybody should have the same knowledge and have the same lack of knowledge and the same personality, character, brain.... They should be 2 identical copies of each other.

How can somebody who is good in watching prices discuss with a trendfollower? They both have their own experience and both miss what the other person is good in.
The one who is good in price watching will say price watching works best, and the one who is good in trendfollowing will say trendfollowing works best.

You said:When is it a pullback in an up trend and when is it a new down trend? Which time frame? Daily? Monthly? A fast tick chart?

I can reply: how much should the price go down to get a buy signal? And at what price should you sell and go short? Which time frame? Should the prices be going up last ticks? Seconds? Minutes? Hours?
More or less the same questions will pop up.

You are good in watching prices, so use that. You have no clue how trends work, so stay out.
I am good in trendfollowing, so I use that. I have no clue how price watching works, so I stay out of that.
You should do what works for you, no matter what works for other people.
 
Laissez Faire said:
It's a meaningless discussion and one which completely depends on how trend is defined. When is it a pullback in an up trend and when is it a new down trend? Which time frame? Daily? Monthly? A fast tick chart?

It's better to simply perceive price moving up or down.
More...


Yes, thank you, this is just my point.

I am making money from trend-following and people constantly tell me that I can't make money from trend-following because markets only trend 20% of the time. And they don't even know my time-frame or what markets I'm trading. Making money has not stopped me being very angry at them. Grrrrrrr.
 
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