You must be watching the dow more than the nasdaq, which had more premium to shed and has shed a lot more premium. It's been volatile but steady though, and a steady consistent decline is far worse than historic crash days, so it's likely going to be rough for both of them in the long run.
Markets need to CRASH
- Thread starter Rickshaw Man
- Start date
We get a lot of these stupid threads these days and people just seem to think markets crash because well they saw a chart of another crash under entirely different conditions. Versus actually looking at what companies are worth. The earnings reports in many non-IT companies are very, very healthy right now. Not exactly a reason to crash, yet we have posters on here assuming things certainly will crash. In fact, markets are diverging; money is flowing into successful companies with strong balance sheets. Many analysts underestimated how strong the earnings would be. The clues are there a soft landing of sorts is coming.
Sounds like you finally got fed up being the sucker in all these sucker rallies we have had this year.
This market feels like the 2000 collapse which was very steady with no real single day collapse unlike 1987 or even the post-Lehman market in September 2008. It took the NASDAQ like 3 years to really start to come back (March 2000 to June 2003).
I remember holding solid companies like SUNW, CSCO, LU, etc. but even they mostly collapsed in the end. That is probably the fate of this market -- AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, CRM, NVDA, etc. will all collapse at the end. Lower earnings and lower P/E.
There is no bailout coming from reckless politicians or former GS cronies. The problem in this market is too much optimism & recency bias of going back to the heady days of 2012-2021. Those days are over but the market participants still cling to the old ways. In many ways they are like the BOJ and their refusal to even acknowledge inflation which will ultimately lead to the collapse of the Yen.
The most telling day was the illogical reversal of the CPI print on Oct 13. Not one good shred of news and the markets reversed for the lulz.
I remember holding solid companies like SUNW, CSCO, LU, etc. but even they mostly collapsed in the end. That is probably the fate of this market -- AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, CRM, NVDA, etc. will all collapse at the end. Lower earnings and lower P/E.
There is no bailout coming from reckless politicians or former GS cronies. The problem in this market is too much optimism & recency bias of going back to the heady days of 2012-2021. Those days are over but the market participants still cling to the old ways. In many ways they are like the BOJ and their refusal to even acknowledge inflation which will ultimately lead to the collapse of the Yen.
The most telling day was the illogical reversal of the CPI print on Oct 13. Not one good shred of news and the markets reversed for the lulz.
Watching FOMC presser yesterday and the initial 100bps drop in FF rates and 50pts rally in SPX after the words "will consider the lag and cumulative effects of rate hikes" was kind of telling. The pivot crowd is still faithful and recency bias is strong. The 10Y3M crew (10Y2Y doesn't count! real men watch 10Y3M) went silent after the curve inverses. IMHO the market returns to end of 2019 trajectory to finish the contraction phase of the business cycle. It was interrupted by CBs' forceful money injection due to covid, but they can't overpower the boom/bust nature of economy.
so what does the 10Y3M tell you?
Fed at this point could not care less about the stock market. The market is hopelessly overvalued by dozens of multiples. They care about how they go into the history books taming one of the worst inflation environments.
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but aren't overall dividend yields low and market caps still too high? that is how I would value it as an investor in the overall market.