Markets in turmoil: Watch CNBC special report sunday night....absolutely hilarious...

[der_kommissar]

I can't imagine many buy and hold types having done badly in almost any scenario these days, regardless of this correction. Only way somebody did badly is liquidate in a panic in 2008/2009, or this correction goes 30-50% and holds lower ( not going to happen, P/E's are way too solid for that, US economy is not really weak ). I don't even think there are many new investors piling money into equities the last few years ( like in the Nasdaq bubble ), because the housing market suggests otherwise.

A lot of posts on here seem to be less about reality and more about emotional responses to missing a good chunk of the run up in US equities since 2009. Emotional because the points being made aren't logical and certainly aren't justified by how everyday people think of the stock market.

Most long term investors have money in their home and their 401Ks, and the 401Ks are a mixture of equities/bonds/money market. The asset mix on the 401K gets adjusted maybe yearly as markets move. It seems to me reading posts on here, that most short term traders are fairly young and don't relate to investing at all. They haven't been through several cycles in asset classes and tend to think that market crashes occur far more often then they do, because the 2008/2009 crash is still fresh in their memory ( after all, it was a big event in their life ).

Certainly if someone is single, renting their place, and trading short term, it's understandable that they can't relate to many investors. But the over the top snarky commentaries that ratchet up on any corrective phase don't make you any money.

You do understand that P/E's are not static..IOW, P/E's at market tops look solid and then a recession hits (or look at energy companies for comparison sake) and then the market might be 10-20-30% off its highs and earnings crumble. The better P/E's have been distorted by corporate buybacks and ZIRP (7 years and running).

You also seem to conveniently ignore 2000-01 and the destruction of the tech sector. Many of those component stocks were loved at the top, hated at the bottom (no longer existed by 2003).

Truth be told, there's been very little negativity, proportionally speaking, to what has been occurring in equity markets worldwide. Most people have been buying the dips, per usual, and figuring that the central banks will step in any day now and resume the rally into the stratosphere.

 

[i960]

One thing I seem to be noticing with quite a bit of those who I'd characterize as "millennials" is strange sense of optimism about the market and economy. I believe there been conditioned to a 2009-forward environment and think this is the norm of how things work.

Myself been through 2000 (not explicitly trading during that time though) and 2008, am not a millennial, and consider myself to have a pretty active bullshit detector.

 

[der_kommissar]

One thing I seem to be noticing with quite a bit of those who I'd characterize as "millennials" is strange sense of optimism about the market and economy. I believe there been conditioned to a 2009-forward environment and think this is the norm of how things work.

Myself been through 2000 (not explicitly trading during that time though) and 2008, am not a millennial, and consider myself to have a pretty active bullshit detector.

Great points. That's what I consider all of the "conditioning" that takes place that makes even the most hardened cynics and skeptics re-consider their negativity and almost believe "hey, it's different this time". It's also why having CB's actively speculate and manage market levels obscene...If risk is suppressed long enough, then the unwinding is magnitudes more violent and chaotic.

Just an example, I heard mentioned that this past week was the largest percentage change in VIX ever...(hard to believe, but it started at what 12.50 or so?), and why was that? Because no downside could last more than a few days before it was gunned back near all-time highs while the fundamentals deteriorated, emerging economies were in the tank and everything in the world screamed sell (except for the managed "levels" of the major indicies)...

 

[i960]

Indeed! So coupled with this artificial
CB meddling (which builds up a coiled spring), you've got a whole new round of investors added to the mix who haven't had their own portfolio head through a meltdown yet. These doe-eyed types aren't exactly hardened seafarers if you will and I seriously doubt they've got a strong uncle point.

Could be a classic music stops circa March 2000 type environment but I just can't trust that the government won't pull out the stops to start screwing with any downturn. Their reputation has been artificially connected to the stock market (they helped with that!) and a 30% selloff probably isn't going to sit too well with them.

 

[Nanook]

Markets in turmoil: Watch CNBC special report

Cramer must be taking HUGE losses: He cannot stop chattering this morning! ...its just non stop... way more than usual.

 

[S2007S]

cnbc is doing another special tonight at 7pm


Gotta love it....ahhh been waiting years for this and its finally happening....cnbc now trying to calm the markets by doing these pathetic specials....




GO
CNBC Special
Market meltdown
Live 7 PM ET