Markets face a toxic future as inflation fears grow

[d08]

For sure you are right. And innovation can never be black or white. I guess I was thinking of basic research and innovation in technology rather than improvements and domestic governance. Agree with everything you said. And even basic research is not just strictly delineated among country borders. After all the best covid vaccine comes straight out of Germany. And there are certain research areas such as robotics where the US definitely lacks behind. But looking at the big picture I think most innovation is driven out of the US. Certainly not just by "natives" but to a huge degree by temporary residents or immigrants that perform research in the US.

Research in US had a golden age from 50s to late 70s. I cannot exactly say about research in physics or chemistry but Europe does have CERN which seems to be leading the world in particle physics. I've looked a lot of open source software (from which the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon and others greatly benefit) and it's not dominated by Americans, even if Americans probably represent about 30-50% of the key people. Even among products and projects supposedly American, there are key developers based in Europe and Asia yet all the credit goes to America from what I've seen. This can be easily verified by looking at the devs on websites like GitHub.
Anecdotally I could mention Google Maps (originally developed in Denmark, purchased by Google) and VirtualBox (developed in Germany, purchased by Oracle).
Europeans need to brush up on salesmanship as that has been the key for American success stories. And like you said, it's not a black and white story whatsoever. But Europe is underappreciated while US seems to be overappreciated.

 

[comagnum]

The equipment used for Telecom/ISP networks & enterprise businesses. China has burst way ahead of the pack.

The U.S. is a big consumer of high tech but not always a market leader in it anymore.

China: Huawei & ZTE
Nokia: Finland
Ericsson: Sweden
Cisco: USA

 

[DiceAreCast]

I agree with you regarding where credit is due. It's hugely skewed to the US despite the credit often belonging elsewhere. Look at the "Pfizer vaccine" ;-)

Regarding CERN, Fermilab has made equally groundbreaking discoveries during the same time.

But you know what, you made me think deeper on this issue and I think you have a pretty valid point and I stand corrected, Europeans do contribute but just don't get much credit for it.

Regardless, I believe the US will pull through this valley because of their entrepreneurial spirit and willingness to take risks more so than many other cultures. I am a staunch believer in a stronger USD and in the USD remaining the leading global settlement currency in the foreseeable future.

Research in US had a golden age from 50s to late 70s. I cannot exactly say about research in physics or chemistry but Europe does have CERN which seems to be leading the world in particle physics. I've looked a lot of open source software (from which the likes of Google, Facebook, Amazon and others greatly benefit) and it's not dominated by Americans, even if Americans probably represent about 30-50% of the key people. Even among products and projects supposedly American, there are key developers based in Europe and Asia yet all the credit goes to America from what I've seen. This can be easily verified by looking at the devs on websites like GitHub.
Anecdotally I could mention Google Maps (originally developed in Denmark, purchased by Google) and VirtualBox (developed in Germany, purchased by Oracle).
Europeans need to brush up on salesmanship as that has been the key for American success stories. And like you said, it's not a black and white story whatsoever. But Europe is underappreciated while US seems to be overappreciated.

 

[murray t turtle]

The USD will reign supreme, perhaps not as early as tomorrow but soon enough. Nobody but Americans or those who lived in the US understand Jewish power combined with entrepreneurial ingenuity and the willingness to take on risk and play with new ideas and concepts. Nobody should worry about whether the old guard in the US will come up with an ingenious idea how to do away with this pile of government debt. But in the end it all comes down to this: comparative advantage. America will always have shit to sell, stuff they convince the rest of the world that it needs.

%%
Good points DAC;
but Japan sure took leadership in auto excellence\beat US good.. LIKE Allison the auto mechanic said[PBS] ''in Japan they have such a culture of excellence/making things last+ shame if a company does not make things last'' Allison, auto mechanic, is right. Accurate paraphrase, not a direct quote.
Japan was also wise enough to put auto[American] factories here, like Beretta did.

PS ''Toxic markets ''/HUH?? IF it does summer slump,i would not assume that is toxic/LOL. [Inverse ETFs, dividends off longs hardly ''toxic''Thanks Mickey,

 

[d08]

Regardless, I believe the US will pull through this valley because of their entrepreneurial spirit and willingness to take risks more so than many other cultures. I am a staunch believer in a stronger USD and in the USD remaining the leading global settlement currency in the foreseeable future.

I agree but entrepreneurial spirit is strong in some European countries as well, in other ones it's there but often subdued by regulations - when your business will be taxed to death and you have to deal with insane amounts of paperwork, it will not be worth it, especially when raising money will not be easy.
I'd also suggest looking at China, risk taking mentality is much stronger there right now evidenced by the gigantic number of startups.

 

[DiceAreCast]

Re China, I take a very critical approach, to Asia ex Japan actually, when it comes to innovation and research. I find it hard to compare the few inventions and progress that really originated in China over the past 100 years. Most technology is stolen/copied/improved rather than invented in China. Most of the Chinese knowledge to perform research, be it medical, biological, chemical, computer science, automotive, robotics, genetics, has been obtained abroad. Very little truly originated in China.

Why then do we see so many startups and profitable companies in China? Why is there so much competitive pressure coming out of China? I believe it is because of a combination of factors: Government mandate to dominate certain industries at any cost (and that includes government sanctioned theft of information from abroad); loser regulations; a mentality to let powerful people and their scions off the hook easily as long as violations do not constitute a broadside against the communist party; a get-rich-quick mentality; an unlimited gambling addiction; a huge market of consumers; the ability to manufacture at very low cost; protection from outside competition due to government protection/regulations, ....

So, just looking at Chinese companies and how profitable they are, only tells one side of the story. A lot of this is garnered from unfair competition, cheating on an international trade level, theft of intellectual property, gunslinger mentality (for each successful startup there are thousands of unsuccessful ones, we only hear of the lottery winners). You can see what is currently going on in the US or Europe with our easy money policies and people throwing cheap money after bad investments. Multiply this by 5-7 and you understand why in a place with 1.4 billion consumers there are so many startups. The large quantity does not correlate with quality and hardly any of the innovation originates in China.

I agree but entrepreneurial spirit is strong in some European countries as well, in other ones it's there but often subdued by regulations - when your business will be taxed to death and you have to deal with insane amounts of paperwork, it will not be worth it, especially when raising money will not be easy.
I'd also suggest looking at China, risk taking mentality is much stronger there right now evidenced by the gigantic number of startups.

 

[d08]

Re China, I take a very critical approach, to Asia ex Japan actually, when it comes to innovation and research. I find it hard to compare the few inventions and progress that really originated in China over the past 100 years. Most technology is stolen/copied/improved rather than invented in China. Most of the Chinese knowledge to perform research, be it medical, biological, chemical, computer science, automotive, robotics, genetics, has been obtained abroad. Very little truly originated in China.

Why then do we see so many startups and profitable companies in China? Why is there so much competitive pressure coming out of China? I believe it is because of a combination of factors: Government mandate to dominate certain industries at any cost (and that includes government sanctioned theft of information from abroad); loser regulations; a mentality to let powerful people and their scions off the hook easily as long as violations do not constitute a broadside against the communist party; a get-rich-quick mentality; an unlimited gambling addiction; a huge market of consumers; the ability to manufacture at very low cost; protection from outside competition due to government protection/regulations, ....

So, just looking at Chinese companies and how profitable they are, only tells one side of the story. A lot of this is garnered from unfair competition, cheating on an international trade level, theft of intellectual property, gunslinger mentality (for each successful startup there are thousands of unsuccessful ones, we only hear of the lottery winners). You can see what is currently going on in the US or Europe with our easy money policies and people throwing cheap money after bad investments. Multiply this by 5-7 and you understand why in a place with 1.4 billion consumers there are so many startups. The large quantity does not correlate with quality and hardly any of the innovation originates in China.

I agree. I never claimed in the field of research Chinese are at the top, only entrepreneurship. They take an idea that worked in US or Europe and try to replicate it in China. Or adapt the idea for the average Chinese consumer. Nearly no creative flair is required and nothing new requires invention.
This is true all over Asia (also Philippines), when you put up a business and it makes money, your neighbor will launch the same business and attempt to undercut you or if he can't, might threaten you or use other methods of sabotage. Like one lawsuit here, an event-based retail business was sued basically because "they will compete with the locals" and I believe they won the suit. But it's the Philippines, ruled by emotion and corruption, not logic and common sense.

 

[taojaxx]

Perennial Euro-Hater retarded article triggered a quality US/Europe debate. All is not lost...

 

[DiceAreCast]

And guess who all benefits from that corruption all over Southern Asia. And the beneficiaries are masterminds in this corruption: all Chinese. Virtually all large businesses and conglomerates in the Philippines are ruled by local Chinese. Same in Vietnam, Cambodia,...one might argue its because of hard work. I do not agree. It's mostly because they play a reckless and corruptive game. Not sure that is praiseworthy. Surely keeps everyone else poor. Of course I don't only lay blame at the smart "entrepreneur" (=smartest thief or best liar, or bribing business men, in many cases), only. But in the end of the day one can ask a fair question especially about the Philippines (which you brought up) : without the infiltration of ethnic Chinese in the Philippines, would locals perhaps have been better off, even if everyone would have remained a fisherman? Because all those glitzy shopping malls and condos and high rises in cities certainly don't benefit hardly any locals. Same in China, it's just that it only involves Han Chinese by majority. A few make their way to the top and everyone is priced out and left with pennies on the dollar. Never in history did anything good come out of such wealth gaps, ever. Especially when the wealthy did not earn an honest dollar. My major point is that when wealth is earned dishonestly then you lose the respect of those left behind. And that is the classic material of revolutions and major conflict

I agree. I never claimed in the field of research Chinese are at the top, only entrepreneurship. They take an idea that worked in US or Europe and try to replicate it in China. Or adapt the idea for the average Chinese consumer. Nearly no creative flair is required and nothing new requires invention.
This is true all over Asia (also Philippines), when you put up a business and it makes money, your neighbor will launch the same business and attempt to undercut you or if he can't, might threaten you or use other methods of sabotage. Like one lawsuit here, an event-based retail business was sued basically because "they will compete with the locals" and I believe they won the suit. But it's the Philippines, ruled by emotion and corruption, not logic and common sense.

 

[DiceAreCast]

Ah, I am not the only one who recognized AEP then? Gosh, does this guy hate Europe with all his gut. Almost comical.

Perennial Euro-Hater retarded article triggered a quality US/Europe debate. All is not lost...