Markets are not Random

[_eug_]

Markets move from areas of demand to supply, testing and retesting until zones are exhausted then break out and on to the next zones of supply and demand. All can be found by looking left. Call it accumulation/ distribution or what ever.

 

[hobothedestroyer]

in the short term markets may "not be random" but fat tails appear randomly, so overall being a trader means facing randomness; in my opinion the 'best methods' are ones which stop trying to see meaning in what is essentially meaningless data

 

[SunTrader]

There is nothing like grilling a steak in the humid heat of Mumbai.

Ahh the smell of open sewers in the morning.

 

[tomorton]

i agree with this......though if a trend exists then it is predictable

Yes. Trend is the base pattern of all markets. The most probable next action by price in a trend is continuation.

 

[El OchoCinco]

You guys realize the amount of time wasted just trying to define random words...

 

[tomorton]

You guys realize the amount of time wasted just trying to define random words...

Happily, I have produced a categoric definition of a trend - a trend is a trend if its a trend which I can trade using my trend-following strategy. Makes every chart clear. I sleep well.

 

[kiwi_trader]

Yes. I like that definition tomorton. I would add that a higher time-frame trend is a higher time-frame trend if it results in the trades taken using my trading trend having higher expectancy. And, closing when the market closes, I sleep well every night.

 

[Overnight]

The trend of the "market" is up. It always has been, and always will be. How many centuries must pass before this point is driven home?

Someone show me the downtrend in this chart. Hmmm?

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

 

[tiddlywinks]

The trend of the "market" is up. It always has been, and always will be.

With that logic, as long as the "market", which ever market it is, remains above it's initial opening print, it's trend is up.

 

[Overnight]

With that logic, as long as the "market", which ever market it is, remains above it's initial opening print, it's trend is up.

BAM! YOU GOT IT! OMFG, SOMEONE UNDERSTANDS!

Name a market that has ever done the opposite. In my limited knowledge, the only one that ever has is the XIV, which bet against the idea of a market getting volatile? The point here is, is that equity markets go up, and HAVE been going up, since the beginning of time. That is the nature of a planet that keeps expanding in both population and output growth.

Why bet against that?