Markets are not Random

tommcginnis said:
If you really want to screw with one of the yutz/chuckleheads who preach this dreck, just ask them a single question:

"What's the single best estimator of today's market closing price?"

and when they respond, "Well, yesterday's closing price, duh."

You respond, "Bingo. Then I guess the market is not exactly random, is it." :banghead:


((Footnote for numbers nerds or for those who actually want to escape from the "Markets are random" idiocy.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_and_identically_distributed_random_variables

Market returns can be easily argued to be random.
Volatility, likewise: easy.
But to portray markets as random is to dance IID conditions right out the freakin' door.
"Just say no."))
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Well it's the "best" estimator but it doesn't mean it's a good estimator and majority of the times, it isn't. The best estimator nowdays is Trump or Kim Jong Un at one point. LOL
 
MarkBrown said:
actually the train is the "commercials" the people are "retail" the cows would be steaks for the members of the exchange.
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I was under the impression if a sacred cow was struck, you couldn't eat the thin beef or jail-able offense? Might be wrong, but wouldn't take long to gut, have to take care and not hit all the bones with little meat on them. I am guessing though you wouldn't want to eat it, water is polluted and so much trashed. Have quart of Pepto right after.
 
Turveyd said:
It's not Random, but it's also not predictable because there are a lot of variables which change frequently and you don't know pretty much any of them!
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"Lots"??? You'd have quite a hard time to name half-a-dozen.

However, securing data on them in a timely fashion... wow. THAT would be an assignment.
 
1. Sometimes market appears to be random but actually there is pattern.
And that's where we need to be alert.

2. Sometimes market is random, and appears to have pattern.
And that's where we lost money trading such market.

3. Sometimes market is truly random.
Very easy to trade because we wouldn't be trading
 
MarkBrown said:
Markets are not random, just passengers "retail" are random as they come and go.
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the passengers are not just retail but institutional as well, they also have no clue

the picture is wrong since its assumes that there is somebody (instututionals) who drives the train , there are not ...:)

instead of the train i would show it as the ship of fools, which is in the hands of the elements of the sea waves and wind gusts

and the elements are not random but predictable, but who knows the filed of the meteorology? :)
 
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