Markets are not Random

MarkBrown · Sep 16, 2018

Markets are not random, just passengers "retail" are random as they come and go.

Underneath it all, peal away the "retail" and there is a market with exact intent.

You have to filter through outside "noise" to understand the structure beneath.

tommcginnis · Sep 16, 2018

If you really want to screw with one of the yutz/chuckleheads who preach this dreck, just ask them a single question:

"What's the single best estimator of today's market closing price?"

and when they respond, "Well, yesterday's closing price, duh."

You respond, "Bingo. Then I guess the market is not exactly random, is it." :banghead:

((Footnote for numbers nerds or for those who actually want to escape from the "Markets are random" idiocy.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_and_identically_distributed_random_variables

Market returns can be easily argued to be random.
Volatility, likewise: easy.
But to portray markets as random is to dance IID conditions right out the freakin' door.
"Just say no."))

Handle123 · Sep 16, 2018

MarkBrown said:

So if a small herd of cows(COMMERCIALS) gets into the path of this train, hundreds of these people(RETAIL) come crashing down but the cows(COMMERCIAL) profits again. That's about right and do it again.

Cool pic.

Palindrome · Sep 16, 2018

There are two places I love to visit... Key West Florida and Mumbai India. Something about that humid thick air in Mumbai that I just can't get enough of.

MarkBrown · Sep 16, 2018

Handle123 said:
So if a small herd of cows(COMMERCIALS) gets into the path of this train, hundreds of these people(RETAIL) come crashing down but the cows(COMMERCIAL) profits again. That's about right and do it again.

Cool pic.

actually the train is the "commercials" the people are "retail" the cows would be steaks for the members of the exchange.

SunTrader · Sep 16, 2018

Mmmm steak. Though I doubt you can order one in Mumbai.

themickey · Sep 16, 2018

Can you imagine the scene if that train had a head on with another obstacle. Not uncommon.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_rail_accidents

So can we assume retail hop on the trading train thinking its a gravvy train with big smiles on their faces and a chirpy disposition while blithely unaware of the risks?

Overnight · Sep 16, 2018

themickey said:
Can you imagine the scene if that train had a head on with another obstacle. Not uncommon.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Indian_rail_accidents

So can we assume retail hop on the trading train thinking its a gravvy train with big smiles on their faces and a chirpy disposition while blithely unaware of the risks?

Themickey wins the ET least-used-word-of-the-month award. Blithely. That is awesomeness.

MarkBrown · Sep 16, 2018

themickey said:
So can we assume retail hop on the trading train thinking its a gravvy train with big smiles on their faces and a chirpy disposition while blithely unaware of the risks?

exactly as we witness here on et lol ....

Turveyd · Sep 16, 2018

tommcginnis said:
If you really want to screw with one of the yutz/chuckleheads who preach this dreck, just ask them a single question:

"What's the single best estimator of today's market closing price?"

and when they respond, "Well, yesterday's closing price, duh."

You respond, "Bingo. Then I guess the market is not exactly random, is it."

((Footnote for numbers nerds or for those who actually want to escape from the "Markets are random" idiocy.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_and_identically_distributed_random_variables

Market returns can be easily argued to be random.
Volatility, likewise: easy.
But to portray markets as random is to dance IID conditions right out the freakin' door.
"Just say no."))

It's not Random, but it's also not predictable because there are a lot of variables which change frequently and you don't know pretty much any of them!