Markets are mid-range between Oct hi and Dec low... now what? KISS view.

[Scataphagos]

All through '18, I considered 2, most logical"wave counts". The drop into the Dec lows persuaded me to conclude that the October hi was IT, and we were now in a bear market.

But that all changed when the Fed shifted from (necessary-for-our-own-good) "hawkish on rates and liquidity" to "dovish as all get-out" at the behest of Trump and the markets.

Bottom Line.... with the Fed now dovish + once again ADDING TO ITS BALANCE SHEET!, seems most logical the markets might be headed higher (maybe a LOT higher)... regardless of fundamentals... because, "the only thing that matters is liquidity". Joe Granville described the "5th wave up" as "overbelief". In this case, overbelief in the Fed.

Nothing will be defined until either October hi or the December low is taken out. IOW... we are in a trading range for now... a big one. Trade accordingly.

KISS, as always.

FWIW...

 

[murray t turtle]

All through '18, I considered 2, most logical"wave counts". The drop into the Dec lows persuaded me to conclude that the October hi was IT, and we were now in a bear market.

But that all changed when the Fed shifted from (necessary-for-our-own-good) "hawkish on rates and liquidity" to "dovish as all get-out" at the behest of Trump and the markets.

Bottom Line.... with the Fed now dovish + once again ADDING TO ITS BALANCE SHEET!, seems most logical the markets might be headed higher (maybe a LOT higher)... regardless of fundamentals... because, "the only thing that matters is liquidity". Joe Granville described the "5th wave up" as "overbelief". In this case, overbelief in the Fed.

Nothing will be defined until either October hi or the December low is taken out. IOW... we are in a trading range for now... a big one. Trade accordingly.

KISS, as always.

FWIW...

%%
I never could make much use in his OBV, overbelief volume.AS far as pretending 30 stock are worth more/earn more than 500 or 100= LOL-LOL.QQQ has tended to trend better than SPY or DIA, 1st, last quarter, excep t2018 last quarter LOL.I track SDOW more than DOW/DIA

NO wonder IBD warned Dow 30 is easier to manipulate + seldom gave the WSJ 30/DOW much coverage.

 

[Scataphagos]

%%
I never could make much use in his OBV, overbelief volume.AS far as pretending 30 stock are worth more/earn more than 500 or 100= LOL-LOL.QQQ has tended to trend better than SPY or DIA, 1st, last quarter, excep t2018 last quarter LOL.I track SDOW more than DOW/DIA

NO wonder IBD warned Dow 30 is easier to manipulate + seldom gave the WSJ 30/DOW much coverage.

Joe must have found some correlation with his OBV, but the the time I heard of it and checked into, any correlation seemed to have vanished.

Joe clung to his OBV stuff right up to his end... even when it seemed to no longer work. Probably tarnished his legacy a bit.

But his notion of "5th wave up" (or 3rd upleg/downleg, same thing) being "overbelief"... I'm in agreement.

Let's assume for the sake of argument the hypothesis, "Dec low = 4th wave low from the March '16 bottom". If that turns out to be the case, we are now in the "5th Wave up". 5th waves can be whimpy, sloppy, fighting to advance but struggling. They can also be "blow-off", impulsive and large. And any size between. So... how could we have the blow-off type one here? Perhaps Fed gets even more dovish... rather than more hikes, a rate cut? More expansion of their balance sheet? That's all "kicking the can down the road" and will some day lead to even more dire consequences. But in the interim, FOMO could send the markets soaring in defiance of fundamental negatives. Personally, I'd like to see the "whimpy, struggling" kind... preferably failing to take out the W3 (October) highs. In EW parlance, that would be a "5th wave failure" and very bearish.

Lots of possible outcomes, of course. But if you want to make some money on this, you have to make a play on what you think/hope is correct. The important action will come if/when the Oct highs and/or Dec lows are tested.... though some have already gone "all in" with the bull notion.

 

[murray t turtle]

Joe must have found some correlation with his OBV, but the the time I heard of it and checked into, any correlation seemed to have vanished.

Joe clung to his OBV stuff right up to his end... even when it seemed to no longer work. Probably tarnished his legacy a bit.

But his notion of "5th wave up" (or 3rd upleg/downleg, same thing) being "overbelief"... I'm in agreement.

Let's assume for the sake of argument the hypothesis, "Dec low = 4th wave low from the March '16 bottom". If that turns out to be the case, we are now in the "5th Wave up". 5th waves can be whimpy, sloppy, fighting to advance but struggling. They can also be "blow-off", impulsive and large. And any size between. So... how could we have the blow-off type one here? Perhaps Fed gets even more dovish... rather than more hikes, a rate cut? More expansion of their balance sheet? That's all "kicking the can down the road" and will some day lead to even more dire consequences. But in the interim, FOMO could send the markets soaring in defiance of fundamental negatives. Personally, I'd like to see the "whimpy, struggling" kind... preferably failing to take out the W3 (October) highs. In EW parlance, that would be a "5th wave failure" and very bearish.

Lots of possible outcomes, of course. But if you want to make some money on this, you have to make a play on what you think/hope is correct. The important action will come if/when the Oct highs and/or Dec lows are tested.... though some have already gone "all in" with the bull notion.

%% I think he may right for FEB, how so?????,????
''IF BUYING equities seems the most hazardous+foolish thing you could;you are near the bottom that will end of the bear market''-Joe Granville I'm not buying equities; i like Etfs+ related like QQQ.But i cant really say that subjective stuff like that + IBD cup/handel has helped much.LOL
One exception to OBV[OverBelief volume], Wall Street City charts went out of business; but i loved the way thier signals of OBV like a 50 day moving average ,was near price .

I can tell plenty of people thought 50 dma was going to turn bearish, me also ; JAN20-26 with the gaps down..........So that another reason for the uptrend, failure to take out /close below 50 dma.
Looks like the WSJ is shameless in trying to promote the evil empire management PCG; bearish on weekly charts, bearish 10 minute charts, which i seldom use. Their shameless promotion of GE never worked well, went down from $60 area to $6.66, so bears simply did the best; any trash/turkey can fly up, in a storm.

I seldom pay attention to post market unless its elephant volume, trend. They faked move a liquid ETF, best not to mention which one, past 50 days ,down 10% in one irregular hours session, still going up reg market hours.LOL

 

[heavenskrow]

I'm leaning heavily short at these levels in the market. Very good risk/reward scenario IMO.

The only thing that concerns me is Europe, China, and Japan all look fairly strong in terms of a bullish case whereas America is the opposite.

 

[Overnight]

I'm leaning heavily short at these levels in the market. Very good risk/reward scenario IMO.

The only thing that concerns me is Europe, China, and Japan all look fairly strong in terms of a bullish case whereas America is the opposite.

If Trump and Xi announce a concrete trade deal, you better not be short. That is the one coiled-spring waiting to pop.

Currently though, the new US gubmint shutdown looming is gonna' keep a cap on it all, IMHO.

 

[Stockolio]

 

[Stockolio]

If you need more proof of what is coming... https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/re...mae-freddie-mac-to-be-private-companies-again

 

[sle]

Bottom Line.... with the Fed now dovish + once again ADDING TO ITS BALANCE SHEET!

Where do you read that?

The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details for completing balance sheet normalization in light of economic and financial developments.

"completing", which to me means "we are still reducing, but we are going to keep an eye on the markets".

 

[heavenskrow]

If Trump and Xi announce a concrete trade deal, you better not be short. That is the one coiled-spring waiting to pop.

Currently though, the new US gubmint shutdown looming is gonna' keep a cap on it all, IMHO.

When that happens, I'm sure it will break my risk level and I will cover.
All I know is my edge, and it;s telling me to short. I don't know if I will be right, but I need to take every trade I see. If market takes out my risk level, I will accept the loss and move on to the next trade.