What's wrong with staring at a computer screen all day and what kind of crops are you farming?
Markets are impossible to predict
- Thread starter farmerjohn1324
- Start date
What's wrong with staring at a computer screen all day and what kind of crops are you farming?
Every time you hold them for more than a day successfully is an outlier event.
"Leveraged funds do not work like normal stocks or ETFs. They are only meant to track the leveraged return of a fund for the day, not for any period longer than that. Over extended periods of time they drift toward 0, due to a phenomenon known as volatility decay. This happens because a move down decreases an ETF by more than a move up. For example, if an ETF is at $100 and it loses 10% one day and gains 10% the next day, it is not back to $100 but rather at $99." above quote from mt2rules.
Well - I switched to a. on the spike up at 71 as I mentioned could happen and got a second buy signal at 11:37, but switched back to b. on the false breakout of the current HOD at the time.
As you can see - the prediction did not turn out right for either scenario. It's a matter of probabilities and they don't always pan out as expected, but I find that I usually can get a good read of where the day is head - roughly speaking. And often - quite accurate as well. But I don't trade blindly on my predictions either - I use technical signals, i.e., charts, to fine tune my entries and exits.
Note that both the high at 12:00 and the LOD at were false breakouts of the current HOD/LOD. These are common patterns on the ES.
The market is uber-bullish these days, so one needs to be cautious on the short side and ever wary of reversals when the market is trading lower. That said - I thought we would dip lower than this intraday and at least tag 3262.
Did you make out 3271 yet? I'll let you know if not.
[QUOTE="farmerjohn1324, post: 4992495, member: 515546"
If there's one thing that can be predicted, it's that index funds will go up over time.[/QUOTE
]The statement is not true of leveraged index funds. Even if do go up over time their performance will be less then their unleveraged cousins.
If there's one thing that can be predicted, it's that index funds will go up over time.[/QUOTE
]The statement is not true of leveraged index funds. Even if do go up over time their performance will be less then their unleveraged cousins.
Sellers see a slowdown in loans and leases, diesel fuel etc, so expect more pullbacks later on.
Maybe so, but the foot steps still show up in the charts, you just cant drive yourself crazy with all kinds of minuscule details, Not saying big surprises like Trumps tweets have no impact because they do. Some news is already figured in by smarter people than you and I.
Here is another example... Keep in mind this is hindsight and I dont trade Natural Gas but just to show that charts all work the same, doesn't matter the instrument.
Again weekly level from the past that has not been tested:
Your 4 hour chart showing a slowing of momentum, visible in your MACD:
Up to you what you want to believe...
Again weekly level from the past that has not been tested:
Your 4 hour chart showing a slowing of momentum, visible in your MACD:
Up to you what you want to believe...
Yes for sure, Octobers outside bullish bar, Novembers bullish bar and Decembers outside Bullish bar.