Markets are impossible to predict

[Laissez Faire]

Let's try a prediction, then. As often is - these predictions are conditional.

ES (e-mini S&P 500) today:

a. If the market holds above 3271 for the next 90 minutes - we will find today's High of Day near the Close. Should be around 3280 and a new High from here.

b. If 3271 fails to hold - we will trade down towards 3253 and find a bottom within 90 minutes of today's Close. With this scenario, we should see the market close unchanged on the day or negative.

I favour scenario b.

To trade that, you could short 3273,50 now and place a stop at 3275.

If not stopped - take a small profit and exit if we should bounce off 3271.

-

If not in a position - I would not initiate a long trade to trade scenario a at this point. But if 3271 acts as support - I could re-enter a long from there.

That's the prediction as of now (11:00). This can change based on market development, but this is what the data says now.

 

[Onra]

Does the chart show slowing momentum as we approach support on a sell off? If momentum is slowing then you know that others are buying into the same level that you are thinking about.

eug, do you only look at PA or volume as well?

 

[tommcginnis]

Markets are impossible to predict, but easy to follow. Take profits and move on

Now THAT is truth right there.

 

[_eug_]

eug, do you only look at PA or volume as well?

I tried using the constant volume bar charts before for intra day in the past. I am not good at day trading so I stopped. Time charts with no volume works fine for swings. Never ever looked at volume in the traditional sense.

IMO everything you need to read what other market participants are doing can be seen in a regular time based chart. That way you can follow the market

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Let's try a prediction, then. As often is - these predictions are conditional.

ES (e-mini S&P 500) today:

a. If the market holds above 3271 for the next 90 minutes - we will find today's High of Day near the Close. Should be around 3280 and a new High from here.

b. If 3271 fails to hold - we will trade down towards 3253 and find a bottom within 90 minutes of today's Close. With this scenario, we should see the market close unchanged on the day or negative.

I favour scenario b.

To trade that, you could short 3273,50 now and place a stop at 3275.

If not stopped - take a small profit and exit if we should bounce off 3271.

-

If not in a position - I would not initiate a long trade to trade scenario a at this point. But if 3271 acts as support - I could re-enter a long from there.

That's the prediction as of now (11:00). This can change based on market development, but this is what the data says now.

Ok. So it's "b." I'll keep watching.

Can you tell me why you chose 3271?

 

[ironchef]

As I said I trade charts basically 100%. I dont look for stupid patterns or indicators or anything like that. I'm more about picking out important price levels that have historical significance and seeing what happens in the now when we get there.

Interesting comments. For me, after staring at charts for a couple of years (thanks to MrScalper), I found indicators, price levels... not too useful. I did find patterns somewhat useful. In general, still more misses than hits but enough to keep me in the game with net-net profits.

 

[ironchef]

check my thread 'trading is easy', that's how I do it.... I daytraded many years ago... but now I spend 5 minutes a day.

Me too, and to pass time, hours on ET. %% NOT a prediction.

 

[Turveyd]

Well taking the average slope over a specified timeframe is elementary math. The problem to me is knowing what timeframe is useful.

And also knowing that it truly is fundamentals that move markets in the longer-term. You can quantify fundamentals necessarily.

All and None!!

M1 is great for sneaking in a few pts between news.

H4 with a large SL likely ideal for Swing trades with a large enough SL to not be worried about gaps and news spikes. Been a month long NQ up trend worth 600pts from a 150SL risk.

 

[Zodiac4u]

dude listen to me - just buy qqq blind and hold forever.

this trading game is not for you... no offense... 99% people can't make it.

Yes very interesting on the Buy QQQ Blind and hold forever? Its been in a 25$ range from 2000 to 2012, and here we are almost kissing 220$ after it left 2012 behind, Very nice for sure.
I did notice QQQ losing 25% of its gain in just 3 dayS in December of 2018, and of course correcting and regaining altitude since than. AAple on the other hand out performed QQQ by a good chunk since 2012.
I'm thinking that people who are counting on QQQ or other investment vehicles to continue there upward path until they retire may be in for a surprise? The Good or bad depends on when a person is retiring?
Markets don't go up forever, after all its all about economic cycles or another way of putting it burn and rebuild. A few months back Banks have come and said their customers are 100% fully invested, the other day i heard Morning-star investments come out with some research they've collected over the years on their self directed customers who try to time the markets and found that these customers always get out at bottoms and enter after markets have made big moves up. Another thing to consider is that the Trumps tweets can't last forever. A presidents office term does come to an end, sooner or later it will. But If you think Markets are trading great now, wait til Trumps 2nd term, should be even more very interesting for sure.

 

[ironchef]

But If you think Markets are trading great now, wait til Trumps 2nd term, should be even more very interesting for sure.

You seemed very sure there will be a 2nd term?