Markets are impossible to predict

tomorton said:
Markets are very hard to predict. But very easy to follow.

If the market is showing that it is currently hard to follow, stop trading until you pick up a clear trail again.

An example of a good time to stop trading might be when two significant military powers are hurling bombs, missiles, threats and taunts at each other in an unstable region ruled by autocratic regimes practically unfettered by western notions of democracy and complicated by deep-seated religious animosities.
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And in response to "easy to follow"...

You could say the trend is stocks are obviously up. But then you could say overbought compared to earnings so wait for a dip. You can't see the top until after the fact. You could have predicted we were at the top about 100 times this year. Can't predict when or if the reversal will happen.
 
tomorton said:
Markets are very hard to predict. But very easy to follow.

If the market is showing that it is currently hard to follow, stop trading until you pick up a clear trail again.

An example of a good time to stop trading might be when two significant military powers are hurling bombs, missiles, threats and taunts at each other in an unstable region ruled by autocratic regimes practically unfettered by western notions of democracy and complicated by deep-seated religious animosities.
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%%
I see your points;
except wars tend to be bullish. IF I lived in Iraq or Iran I would want to sell+move; but I don't. Buy when there is blood in the streets; but just don't buy a a 191% debt level co like TSLA,$40, 000,000 SEC fined co, unless you like to do stupid stuff.:caution::caution:,:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:Good follow point/trend follow points.................................................................................
 
Screen Shot 2020-01-08 at 5.52.56 PM.png
channels work on the NQ
 
murray t turtle said:
%%
I see your points;
except wars tend to be bullish. IF I lived in Iraq or Iran I would want to sell+move; but I don't. Buy when there is blood in the streets; but just don't buy a a 191% debt level co like TSLA,$40, 000,000 SEC fined co, unless you like to do stupid stuff.:caution::caution:,:cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool::cool:Good follow point/trend follow points.................................................................................
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Yea I was gonna say that...

Wars are good for the economy, unless you're country happens to be bombed to the ground.
 
Overnight said:
Gold is not an investment, because it offers no return. No dividends, no yields. Nothing.
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Same as fine art and collectible cars. Many stocks also don't pay a dividend or even produce a profit. Many gold stocks produce a dividend.

But if you compare where the prices were from last year on gold and equities to now, you can see that equities is the "investment", while GC is justa kinda' a boat anchor or something.
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Over the past year, gold stocks (GDX) have outperformed your "investment".
 
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farmerjohn1324 said:
And in response to "easy to follow"...

You could say the trend is stocks are obviously up. But then you could say overbought compared to earnings so wait for a dip. You can't see the top until after the fact. You could have predicted we were at the top about 100 times this year. Can't predict when or if the reversal will happen.
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Always wait for a dip in order to re-enter. Never wait for overbought to confirm before taking profits.

In an uptrend, be long: do not be short until we're in a downtrend.

If we're not in either an uptrend or a downtrend as defined by your individual strategy, either use an interim alternative strategy or just go and enjoy some time at the beach.
 
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