Markets are impossible to predict

[farmerjohn1324]

Read your first post.

You could have dumped your ETF AH yesterday. GLD was up almost 3% AH. So 3x and you're there. I don't know what the liquidity is like, but yeah, you got caught in a reversal that occurred after hours.

Get over it if you can or find another line of work.

It was not at a price in AH that I would have wanted to sell it. If you look at it (Nugt), you'll see a large gain since the end of December. Today alone took out about half that. I'm hoping the uptrend will continue from December.

Luckily, I don't need the money for living expenses, so I can afford to wait for it. And I don't have anything else I could put it in that I also wouldn't consider gambling.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Then buy far dated otm options

Using vertical spreads?

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Although that's not the reason to avoid shorting the market. How come those 7B could not stop the market from going down in 2008? Fundamentals will ultimately matter.

Because those 7B will also take out as many loans as they possibly can.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Using vertical spreads?

If you like

 

[murray t turtle]

Nugt 52 weeks >100%?

Are you referring to ttm?

%%
1[one] year chart[52 weeks]
$17to 34/yesterdays close /100% gains ,NUGT; Valley to peak much better%, but cant get that bottom/ Valley to peak/top.
UPRO about the same 100% but UPRO or SPXL; Keeping much more of its 52 week profits............................................................................................................

 

[farmerjohn1324]

If you like

By the time they expired, I would forget I had them lol. That's the recurring theme on my practice options account.

I talked to my brokerage about options on index funds. Apparently, you cannot exercise them before expiration. But a positive aspect is they don't suffer from Dividend Harvesting risk.

 

[Overnight]

Gold is never a good investment? Despite the fact that this very same fund is up 78% on the year?

What algorithms?

And, okay, you can predict that index funds will rise over time. That's about it.

Gold is not an investment, because it offers no return. No dividends, no yields. Nothing. Think of it as a hedge against a portfolio of other bits. Like if you're 100% in equities, and you smell a possible downturn, you shift some of your equity monies to a gold fund. When the equities tank and the gold rises, you take the gold profits while they are there to offset the equity loss. You then re-invest those GC profits into the now-lower-cost equities, and you watch that extra profit go up again?

The way my simple mind works is that when stocks go down, GC goes up. In a perfect world. But we are not in such a world because of algos and whatnot, so the shit moves fast.

This happened last year when Iran hit the Saudi production facility. GC went from the 1400s to about 1550. It started settling back over time to 1500ish.

Last night the shit spiked to 1600 and equities tanked on the Iran news (again), and with Trump's speech, gold tanked back to that midpoint of 1550ish, while equities spiked.

But if you compare where the prices were from last year on gold and equities to now, you can see that equities is the "investment", while GC is justa kinda' a boat anchor or something.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Gold is not an investment, because it offers no return. No dividends, no yields. Nothing. Think of it as a hedge against a portfolio of other bits. Like if you're 100% in equities, and you smell a possible downturn, you shift some of your equity monies to a gold fund. When the equities tank and the gold rises, you take the gold profits while they are there to offset the equity loss. You then re-invest those GC profits into the lower-cost equities, and you watch that extra profit go up again?

The way my simple mind works is that when stocks go down, GC goes up. In a perfect world. But we are not in such a world because of algos and whatnot, so the shit moves fast.

This happened last year when Iran hit the Saudi production facility. GC went from the 1400s to about 1550. It started settling back over time to 1500ish.

Last night the shit spiked to 1600 and equities tanked on the Iran news (again), and with Trump's speech, gold tanked back to that midpoint of 1550ish, while equities spiked.

But if you compare where the prices were from last year on gold and equities to now, you can see that equities is the "investment", while GC is justa kinda' a boat anchor or something.

It's a speculation at best. I agree with your entire philosophy.

Funny story about that Saudi oil strike. That was one of the only planned out trades that I won. It was just paper money. But I saw that the Norweigian Kroner ( NOK) spiked along with price of oil. I bet against it, betting that it was an overreaction. I would have been right.

 

[tomorton]

Markets are very hard to predict. But very easy to follow.

If the market is showing that it is currently hard to follow, stop trading until you pick up a clear trail again.

An example of a good time to stop trading might be when two significant military powers are hurling bombs, missiles, threats and taunts at each other in an unstable region ruled by autocratic regimes practically unfettered by western notions of democracy and complicated by deep-seated religious animosities.

 

[farmerjohn1324]

Markets are very hard to predict. But very easy to follow.

If the market is showing that it is currently hard to follow, stop trading until you pick up a clear trail again.

An example of a good time to stop trading might be when two significant military powers are hurling bombs, missiles, threats and taunts at each other in an unstable region ruled by autocratic regimes practically unfettered by western notions of democracy and complicated by deep-seated religious animosities.

Ok so I'll just wait for the Middle East to settle down. I might be waiting a while.