Market Wizards

[OddTrader]

Quote from Armo:

Seems to me that the type of trader like Paul Tudor Jones might just have the advantage over the system trader now - for him the market can be as non-stationary as the market likes because of the forward looking approack of reading the macro-environment.

Sam

Not sure how much Tudor Jones' trading was based on reading the macro trend. But who knows?

Quote from OddTrader:

20 cents:

It seems in general many hedge fund managers by nature would Not truly and fully disclose (for competition and commercial reasons, I guess) their proprietary methods/systems that are developed with long time reasearch, due to various reasons: Whether the methods/systems are truly good for long time, Whether any much better methods/systems can be found later with a completely different approach, etc.

Here is another news (The CMC Trader Review, Dec 2003) for Paul Tudor Jones:

Q

In the mid 1990's Jones established a software business to develop a black box version of his trading skills.

He later abandoned the idea after reportedly reconsidering the comparatively low rates of return, the long payouts and the steep development dollars that it would take to suceed.

The trading guru was apparently more comfortable with the fast returns of the markets and doubted the effectiveness of trying to get a computer to outsmart human trading instincts.

UQ

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=397436&highlight=tudor+jones#post397436

 

[waggie945]

And here we have Trend Fader, once again talking out of his ass about things that he has no freaking clue about!

For someone that has never even met Paul Jones, or known anyone on his staff, I find your analysis of his track record to be pretty bizarre. Who are you to say that he was "just lucky"??? You have no idea what his track record was during inflationary times, or deflationary times, for that matter.

As for your analysis of Warren Buffet . . .
More garbage. Buffet buys companies. Period.
He does not trade, and is not a trader. To try comparing Jones to Buffet is absolutely absurd. Apples and Oranges.

So far, your track record is PERFECT Trend Fader!
Not one intelligent comment made on this board.
Congratulations!

 

[axeman]

Only stupid system traders are vulnerable to this.
Good system traders have many objective measurements
for their system "behavior" and watch for changes in behavior
like a Hawk.

Markets dont "change" over night in a single day.
Edges take time to fade. If your stupid enough to keep trading
your "fixed" system, as the statistics get worse and worse
and worse, while re-tuning does not help, then what can
I say. Your clueless.

However... a good system trader will spot the market changes
with objective statistics backing him, and will know when to
take it offline before it really hurts him.

If markets start changing at such a fast pace that all systems
burn out very quickly, then the markets arent worth trading
any more.


peace

axeman

Quote from Armo:

It would seem to me that system traders are especially vunerable to this concept of non-stationary markets, emphasised by the fact that trading these systems neccessites a blind faith during draw down periods that the past market behaviour supporting the system's viability is still persisting.
[/B]

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Trend Fader:



Yea some of them made fortunes.. could of been pure luck.

--MIKE

nasim taleb from empirica capital would agree with you.

surfer

 

[VicTrader]

Quote from marketsurfer:

nasim taleb from empirica capital would agree with you.

surfer

IMHO Nassim Nicholas Taleb overemphasizes the importance of luck that plays a role in one's success.

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from VicTrader:

IMHO Nassim Nicholas Taleb overemphasizes the importance of luck that plays a role in one's success.

i heard a little rumour that empirica is having difficulties.

 

[Virtuoso]

Quote from marketsurfer:

i heard a little rumour that empirica is having difficulties.

It's just bad luck

 

[marketsurfer]

Quote from Virtuoso:

It's just bad luck

yes, bad luck.

 

[mikecully]

I'm no wizard but I have found 4 rules to the market. One of them was taught to a Indian man from AdvancedGet that later sold the technique to eSignal. I've found the market cancels it out now though. Like the market is a thing consuming ideas and rules.

My other three still work. I dont train because of fear that someone will take the idea. I trade it myslef and publish the results.

Maybe when I'm older I may write the book. But not now.

 

[waggie945]

Thanks for letting us know all about your impending book deal.
Please let us know when it will be coming out.

I'm sure that most of us can't wait!