PERSONALLY i have never found a marketing timing system that ever performed great in real time , every system always made backtested fortunes going back to the beginning of the world... but going foward their performance was usually marginally profitable... excuse my ignorance but is this the nature of backtested market timing systems????
Market Timing Signals
- Thread starter larrybf
- Start date
...in what trading timeframes have you found market timing systems to be inadequate?
I have found backtesting to be usefull in telling me if a trading system or idea was worth spending more time on. My realtime results always were different. Backtesting is just step 1. Also, to system trade you need more than one system. One system will not always make money for you. Systems have flat periods and markets have flat periods. You will never get a momentum system to work in a flat market and you do not want to use a counter trend system in a strong market.
...thanks for setting the context. My experience is that the daily timeframe is worse than random, if that is possible. Longer term (monthly) or shorter (intraday) works.
I disagree. A robust system should work in all timeframes.
Example: ABC System buys the breakout ten bar high. Lets assume the system has a 70% accuracy rate. The same theory should still hold true regardless of timeframe. Daily, weekly, monthly bars shouldnt matter.
I have programed a system that performs just that!
... since I utterly failed in the daily time frame and found refuge intraday, I am not in a position to argue with you. As the risk of sounding stupid, why would you want something that was robust over all time frames? My initial reaction to that is that "robustness" must be achieved at the expense of optimized expectancy for a particular issue in a particular timeframe. My perspective is that of having wrestled NQ for nearly two years intraday before making it my bitch.
Can you comment on your achievement as to whether it is support/resistance, breakout, trend following, retracement, etc., without getting proprietary? (I assume that the breakout was just an example) Thanks.
Can you comment on your achievement as to whether it is support/resistance, breakout, trend following, retracement, etc., without getting proprietary? (I assume that the breakout was just an example) Thanks.
Love your post. I always enjoy your reading your comments.
Yes. I was using an example. For me I like being able to pull some dough out of the market any time I want to regardless of market conditions. ie sideways, trending nontrending breakouts, etc.etc.
Yes I too have pimped the NQ & ES & YM . But I have to admit I dont always like working for my money. Trading the longerterm can yield BIG bucks but dont sleep on the intraday ATM machine either. At the risk of sounding like an arogant TERD I must say that after being the biggest loser on earth in the markets I now enjoy having the "DOPE-EST" SYSTEM ON EARTH.
...thank you for your kind words. I always read your posts carefully because there is so much good experience behind them. Not to get proprietary, but do you extract money from mother market with a "system of systems"? Your suggestion of robustness over all conditions confuses me. I think of sideways, breakout, trending and nontrending as being requiring exploitation by different approaches. If you tell me you use a one-size-fits-all system with one rule I am going to send you my highest limit credit card number. My idea of a simple system is one which has no more than five rules from entry to exit whether the trade is a winner, a loser, or a fat nothing. Best regards. - Mike