Quote from mrmarket:
I still understand why you guys focus on the 6 losers vs. the 44 winners that I've had during the same period. Why does that matter so much. It's like a pitcher throwing a two hit shutout and reporters writing about the fact that his performance stunk because he gave up two hits.
Face the facts. Clearly my well documented trading record is much better than any others I've seen on the internet or on TV.
Now can we get back to to original topic?
This is an attempt to get back to the topic you introduced.
You need not reply, your most recent reason should continue to suffice.
Of your recent trades over a few years you knockeddown over 80 15% profitable trades. Occassionally you restart your record keeping. As you did a couple of months ago.
Now you have about 15 streams of money you invest.
Who cares how you got to 15 streams. I don't.
I recommend that people time their investments and keep their hold periods very small. Attached is the list that was made up over the weekend to fill the streams of capital people are trading.
Our objective is to invest for a short time and to time the investment. We bought SCHN and NTAP this am. URBN was rejected because it had not done 5 cycles of profit in the last 6 months.
We hold about half the time (3 to 4) you did for CLSR. That is why we make up a new list of 10 stocks every week. We do not have a strict profit target but 20% is the review standard we set to qualify.
We watch and select stocks as they come to the bottom of their cycle. They are very high quality stocks.
The timing for the buy is determined by a leading indicator of price, volume. Look at the "unusual" column which tabs the % of the 65 day av volume. As it ran up rapidly this morning we had buys on about half the list. Those whose daily % of increase in price drew our attention as the volume bursts started the up half cycle.
You, as you say, cannot understand what I write. the attached chart demonstrates how to get a list that will BO in price right after BO in volume. This is a timing approach.
You run your Bros portfolio not using timing. It looks like it makes 72% this year. This approach is doubling every 1 1/2 quarters in this type of market.
By reviewing that you cannot understand what I post and your statement that what you do is the best you have seen on TV and the intenet, I now understand why yours is best for you.
It looks like I may be an axample that you exclude because of the reason you give. It may be true that many many others are out there like or better than yours. I know mine is and I have seen others that do quite well (better) than yours. They have one thing in common. They use timing as a facet.
The last time your system got filled with holds that didn't make 15%, you started over here with a journal operated by a moderator whose name was phoenetically the same as your spouses. She said you started over for an assortment of reasons and that you would fill the 15 streams with investments as they came along.
In a timing apporach, people have a surplus of stocks at all times to enter as they sell ASAP at profit peaks.
Your example of CLRS doing xxx% a year is what it is like when, by timing, an investor turns over capital every 6 days.
Here is your optimum picture without timing. 15 streams each traded every 4 to 6 weeks for a year. An average of 10 turnovers a year. You have to trade 150 stocks to do this. So far you have done just over 80 or a half a year's requirement. It has taken you about 2 to 3 years to do this.
Your annual success will be about a ROI of 400% per year with the 150 transactions done. You now get 72% for your bro.
Currently the timing ROI is derived from 9 weeks making 39%. this is 9 into 52 to get 5.78. I raised 1.39 to the 5.78 power to get 671% ROI.
I believe you can easily come up with 150 stocks that will do 15% in 4 to 6 weeks. I have a lesser goal to reach. I need to select and trade 150 stocks just as you do, but I only need to hold them a few days and average the gains you see on the attached sheet.
I only need to do about 3 a week from a list of ten as you see. 24 trades did 39% on capital using just 4 streams instead of 15.as you have.
Timing seems to have merit compared to your approach. Our difference is timing to a large extent.
We both traded LEND it looks like. I settled for 13 and 14% on respective trades. Each was a few days because I timed it. you held it once and made 1 to 2% more (15%) after a long hold where you could have done additional trades.
Because of your statement that you can't read this stuff, you can hang onto the notion that you are doing better than anyone you have ever seen. Funny and sad.