Market timing is unnecessary

Quote from gms:

Might I make a suggestion? I just read your post on another thread where you state you trade your brother's IRA and that he's "up 60% this year". Why don't you post similarly for yourself? That is to say, you're always with the '40 consecutive winners of 15% or better since jan 02', so why not calculate the value of the losing positions as of current value into the mix as well as the current wins, and present the results in a similar fashion for the year as you've done for your brother? How are you doing this year, beginning from a starting value around Jan 03, when you factor in all positions win or lose? There are people here doing worse than you, and people here doing better than you, and one of these groups won't be caring what you post anyway. But I tell you what, if you can present your returns in the manner I suggest, I think it may find more acceptance, and perhaps some respect, from both camps. Of course, references to meats and cheeses and biceps and belittling, arrogant posts will only undermine and trash anything of any value you may have, you know.
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Since you requested:

Of my last 50 trades, 45 have been winners:

Closed positions:

STOCK DATE IN DATE OUT PAID SOLD GAIN ANN GAIN
DHOM 1/8/2002 1/30/2002 15.30 17.75 16% 266%
GNWR 1/3/2002 4/9/2002 21.38 24.80 16% 61%
SAH 1/31/2002 4/9/2002 28.05 32.49 16% 85%
ANH 1/10/2002 4/22/2002 9.73 11.30 16% 58%
GAN 4/9/2002 5/1/2002 56.20 65.09 16% 262%
RYL 4/10/2002 5/3/2002 100.35 116.17 16% 250%
JOSB 5/8/2002 5/17/2002 20.58 24.11 17% 696%
MHK 2/20/2002 5/20/2002 60.00 69.66 16% 66%
TENT 5/14/2002 5/21/2002 13.67 15.88 16% 843%
HAMP 6/18/2002 7/9/2002 21.89 25.35 16% 275%
RATE 1/9/2003 1/13/2003 4.30 5.14 20% 1783%
LCI 1/24/2003 2/6/2003 20.00 23.40 17% 477%
ODFL 1/3/2003 4/3/2003 29.05 33.77 16% 66%
AVD 8/19/2002 4/14/2003 15.07 17.58 17% 26%
QSII 2/25/2003 5/6/2003 26.14 32.10 23% 119%
JFBC 1/2/2003 5/21/2003 50.90 59.46 17% 44%
LEND 5/19/2003 5/27/2003 13.75 16.47 20% 903%
PORT 2/7/2003 6/2/2003 46.85 53.67 15% 46%
NFI 5/27/2003 6/5/2003 51.45 59.45 16% 631%
DRL 4/7/2003 6/6/2003 37.70 44.02 17% 102%
HITK 5/7/2003 6/16/2003 37.16 45.60 23% 207%
OHB 5/21/2002 6/17/2003 9.92 12.01 21% 20%
FBC 6/6/2003 6/26/2003 20.85 24.24 16% 297%
MBT 5/2/2003 6/26/2003 48.50 57.04 18% 117%
VNBC 4/12/2003 6/30/2003 18.89 21.96 16% 75%
SSYS 6/19/2003 7/7/2003 33.35 38.90 17% 337%
ACMR 4/22/2002 7/14/2003 22.01 25.46 16% 13%
UTSI 7/3/2003 7/16/2003 36.28 41.95 16% 439%
FCFS 7/8/2003 7/21/2003 16.30 18.84 16% 438%
FRED 5/2/2002 8/1/2003 26.23 30.29 15% 12%
SFCC 7/30/2003 9/2/2003 26.01 31.00 19% 206%
ESI 8/7/2003 9/12/2003 39.59 46.38 17% 174%
MDC 7/10/2002 10/1/2003 46.59 54.25 16% 13%
COH 6/9/2003 10/14/2003 25.75 30.21 17% 50%
ARO 10/3/2003 10/14/2003 28.90 33.62 16% 542%
NARA 7/25/2003 10/16/2003 18.91 21.94 16% 70%
DKS 7/29/2003 10/29/2003 39.99 47.21 18% 72%
WRLD 6/3/2003 10/29/2003 14.43 18.63 29% 72%
WLS 10/16/2003 10/29/2003 54.10 62.76 16% 449%
GRMN 5/23/2003 10/29/2003 45.91 53.00 15% 35%


OPen Positions:
STOCK DATE IN PAID NOW GAIN TARGET
PTSI 4/15/2002 24.84 19.07 -23.2% 28.9
AXL 5/20/2002 34.73 34.45 -0.8% 40.2
CHKE 5/22/2002 21.50 19.25 -10.5% 24.9
WSB 6/30/2003 10.67 9.21 -13.7% 12.4
AMHC 7/14/2003 41.00 43.13 5.2% 47.6
HELE 9/2/2003 24.13 20.61 -14.6% 27.9
PRX 9/18/2003 72.40 73.55 1.6% 83.7
FINL 9/29/2003 27.13 30.16 11.2% 31.4
CBK 10/20/2003 29.38 29.89 1.7% 33.9
JBSS 10/24/2003 28.37 32.30 13.9% 32.9
 
Quote from mrmarket:

Since the market is upwardly biased in the long run, there is no need to try to be a market timer. The only skill you need is being able to identify stocks that will outperform the market. If you have this skill, in the long run you will make money.
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What do you mean by "market timing" anyway? And what is the idea behind your statement? I would really like to understand your point...
 
Quote from mrmarket:

Since you requested:

Of my last 50 trades, 45 have been winners:

Closed positions:

STOCK DATE IN DATE OUT PAID SOLD GAIN ANN GAIN
DHOM 1/8/2002 1/30/2002 15.30 17.75 16% 266%
<snip>
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I didn't request a thing. I suggested. And you didn't follow my suggestion anyway, instead used it as an excuse to post in the same vein I was suggesting you didn't.
 
partial Quote from'' More''Options:

Yes, timing is a must. Sell and buy decision is not random. So there are timing whether or you want to admit it or not.
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==========================
Partial truth =''timing is unnecessary'';
but like an elite trader wrote years ago ''you better get more than that.''

:cool:

=========
The simple believe every word- More from Solomon,trader king
 
I think MM has had some good investor success....most of his picks DO work out....that is undeniable...the only thing i see that is problematic is that in almost every case, he picks a stock that has already run up 40% or more over the last 12 months and they almost always have a High P-E ratio....He is playing of the last step or tow of the latter and the result has been overall positive, but eventually he's going to miscalculate the top and get burned on a free fall, especially in light of the fact that he will not sell a losing trade mostly because of his ego and as we all know, that is the undoing of many a trader. but hey, 40 for 45 is a nice run...even if you take the 5 and write them off as a 100% loss
 
Quote from TM_Direct:

I think MM has had some good investor success....most of his picks DO work out....that is undeniable...the only thing i see that is problematic is that in almost every case, he picks a stock that has already run up 40% or more over the last 12 months and they almost always have a High P-E ratio....He is playing of the last step or tow of the latter and the result has been overall positive, but eventually he's going to miscalculate the top and get burned on a free fall, especially in light of the fact that he will not sell a losing trade mostly because of his ego and as we all know, that is the undoing of many a trader. but hey, 40 for 45 is a nice run...even if you take the 5 and write them off as a 100% loss
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Actually, it's 45 for 50...but who's counting....

Since I only hold for 15% gain, it doesn't really matter if I'm in a stock early or in a stock late, the key is to get in when the stock is moving up its fastest. That's what my quantitative model uncovers.

Do you like my new website? Much better than Yahoo, in my opinion.
 
Quote from mrmarket:



Actually, it's 45 for 50...but who's counting....

Since I only hold for 15% gain, it doesn't really matter if I'm in a stock early or in a stock late, the key is to get in when the stock is moving up its fastest. That's what my quantitative model uncovers.

Do you like my new website? Much better than Yahoo, in my opinion.
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You are not getting in when its moving its fastest...like you often note, most of these picks are already up 50-60-80% on the year...you are actually over paying...

ex: a 20.00 stock moves to 60.00...then you buy at 60.00 and look to sell it at 65....You have taken on a lot of downside risk.....but hey, your system is working for you ..just be carful and look out below....did you ever sell the cov.call like ive been telling you?? i told you this about 12 trades ago....do you know how much $$ you would have made ontop of that???
 
Quote from mrmarket:

Since I only hold for 15% gain, it doesn't really matter if I'm in a stock early or in a stock late, the key is to get in when the stock is moving up its fastest. That's what my quantitative model uncovers.
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I wouldn't say it does. If your model was adapt at coming in just when the price was moving up, and at it's fastest pace to boot, you wouldn't be waiting so long to see 15% moves, and you wouldn't have the losses at all. Maybe you meant to write, "that's what my quantitative model tries to uncover." And it does matter if you're early or late regarding where in the move you come in. If you're late, the upside potential is potentially more exhausted than if you're in early.
 
Making 10 million dollars is unnecessary, that doesn't mean it isn't a good idea.

The question isn't whether market timing is unnecessary, but whether you can make more money doing that or by adopting a buy and hold approach.
 
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