Market Sentiment

[Dollardogs]

General advice question. I'm still a rookie at Swing Trading and Technical Analysis. I'm trying to get better at integrating market sentiment into my trades, was kinda ignoring that initially, because I was so overwhelmed by everything else.

Books I've read on this so far have recommended things like watching the Put/Call ratio and Advance/Decline line along with the big Indexes. Just wondering if anyone had any wisdom on this for a beginner. What do you guys look for to gauge bullishness vs bearishness. Thanks!

 

[expiated]

I'm heavily criticized on this site for doing so, but I use baselines. I see no reason for over-complicating things. Remain bullish so long as the lines are gaining ground, and bearish so long as they are losing. All you have to do is find the right moving average or moving averages to make this clear. It's not all that difficult to see where one should have gotten in and where one should have gotten out...

Here's what I mean by baselines...

By the way, if I were looking for a baseline, it would look nothing like the one the guy in the video is using. It would look more like the hypothetical one I drew here in bold yellow...

 

[SanMiguel]

General advice question. I'm still a rookie at Swing Trading and Technical Analysis. I'm trying to get better at integrating market sentiment into my trades, was kinda ignoring that initially, because I was so overwhelmed by everything else.

Books I've read on this so far have recommended things like watching the Put/Call ratio and Advance/Decline line along with the big Indexes. Just wondering if anyone had any wisdom on this for a beginner. What do you guys look for to gauge bullishness vs bearishness. Thanks!

Are you day trading or long term/ swing?
For swings
Put call ratio is good as is using cycles.
Try https://sentimentrader.com/ for a combo of good analysis.
Be aware that sentiment can last a long time going against your trades

 

[qlai]

What do you guys look for to gauge bullishness vs bearishness.

Media, but only around extremes.

 

[tommcginnis]

Let your use of moving averages tell you how to play.
Remain detached, "10,000' up" and all that.

Let your assessment of market sentiment tell you when not to play.
When big events (FOMC announcments for short-term; key U.S. elections for longer-term) come up, let the excitement around the event ease you out of the market: go to cash.

As an empirical co-indicator, I pay close attention to the ATR, and have it tuned to match the VIX on day+ (or 'appropriate') candles. As a go/no-go indicator, the ATR is entirely codable, hey.

These are not absolutes, BTW -- just how I lean.
I'm no longer a nose-to-screen trader (for the most part), making the same or better money, at much-reduced variance. ("What's not to love?")

 

[Dollardogs]

I'm heavily criticized on this site for doing so, but I use baselines. I see no reason for over-complicating things. Remain bullish so long as the lines are gaining ground, and bearish so long as they are losing. All you have to do is find the right moving average or moving averages to make this clear. It's not all that difficult to see where one should have gotten in and where one should have gotten out...

View attachment 241291

Here's what I mean by baselines...

By the way, if I were looking for a baseline, it would look nothing like the one the guy in the video is using. It would look more like the hypothetical one I drew here in bold yellow...

View attachment 241293

Thanks, first I'm hearing of baselines, will check out the video in a bit!

 

[Dollardogs]

Are you day trading or long term/ swing?
For swings
Put call ratio is good as is using cycles.
Try https://sentimentrader.com/ for a combo of good analysis.
Be aware that sentiment can last a long time going against your trades

Def more swing trading so far. Day trading just moves too fast for me still.

Here's the sentiment page I've set up on Thinkorswim. I'm still at a point where something needs to be glaringly obvious for me to notice it, but just in case anyone thinks there's anything obvious I'm leaving out.

 

[murray t turtle]

Def more swing trading so far. Day trading just moves too fast for me still.

Here's the sentiment page I've set up on Thinkorswim. I'm still at a point where something needs to be glaringly obvious for me to notice it, but just in case anyone thinks there's anything obvious I'm leaving out.

%%
200 day moving average is a good gauge/measure
Bears live below 200 dma;bulls live above 200dma.
IBD places or puts, put call ratio below S&P ,500-fine if you like rube goldberg creations. I seldom look @ it much less use it......................................................................Wisdom is profitable to direct.Strong tech QQQ uptrend/above 200dma.

 

[SunTrader]

Ask about Sentiment and get a squiggly line?

Anyway here is a John Carter video (no connection whatsoever) where towards last of the 5 minutes he gets into TICK, VIX etc:-

https://www.thestreet.com/video/joh...futures-trading-and-market-sentiment-13266800

 

[formikatrading]

Hey -- just a few suggestions. Someone above suggested sentimentrader.com which is a good site -- you need a lot of stuff outside of Thinkorswim for using sentiment. If you google investor sentiment, you'll see some ideas.

Also, I see you're using 4 hour charts but you have them on the indexes. At least to me, 4 hour charts on futures makes sense but not on the indexes because they they trade 9:30-4 so the bars are going to be unequal. Just something to think about.

Best wishes to you.

Def more swing trading so far. Day trading just moves too fast for me still.

Here's the sentiment page I've set up on Thinkorswim. I'm still at a point where something needs to be glaringly obvious for me to notice it, but just in case anyone thinks there's anything obvious I'm leaving out.