Market Outlook

F

Fundamental

Hi Folks!

I have currently started my own blog which I use every morning to determine overall risk sentiment, how I should plan my trades etc. It its got slightly more of a fundamental as opposed to a technical bias & to date I have used it more as a personal guide than anything else.

I was wondering what the esteemed community at elitetrader thought of it & would appreciate any constructive feedback .... PS I am aware it needs more charts :p

the address is www.marketfutures.co.uk
 
I have included my outlook for tomorrow ..... should anyone disagree please let me know :)

"On Wednesday, we managed to maintain the morning's gains in the DAX, with some dip or back and fill in the FTSE, French CAC and Swiss SMI. American Stocks ended the day more neutrally with the S&P flat lining following yesterday's strong gains.

Although we might see yet further consolidation in the stocks today, the outlook remains bullish and we remain in "buy the dip" mode. Overall bullishness is likely to be further fuelled by reduced unemployment claims and higher Philly Fed in line with current expectations.

Interestingly, on Wednesday, we also experienced US dollar strength with particularly strong declines in the antipodean pairs AUD/USD and NZD/USD and rises in USD/JPY "

This is the type of scan I do before every session ....
 
With inflation down and the economy slowing, it will be interesting to see whether the Swiss National Bank raises its peg from the current 1.2 level.

Certain commentators have stated that any level above 1.20 in EUR/CHF would be a lot more difficult to defend .... I'm not convinced.
 
My view for tomorrow:

We remain confident of a good University of Michigan consumer sentiment figure, however, this is a Friday so we could see some late profit taking especially given current levels. We therefore remain firmly neutral for the day.

Currencies on Thursday reverted back to their previous pattern of US dollar weakness as risk appetite continued to strengthen .... we remain in a wait and see mode as far as these are concerned. Certainly in AUD/USD and NZD/USD we are back to range highs and could go in either direction from here on in
 
In anticipation of continued strong data and break above strong resistance levels, we remain firmly bullish for the week ahead.

www.marketfutures.co.uk

We ended the week in a strong positive note with all major indexes up through major resistance levels. This was helped in part by continuing strong US data which, on the whole, continued to beat expectations.

Next week, as well as the usual Unemployment claims, where we may see some up tick (above the expected 353K level), we have a whole sleuth of housing data. Building Permits, due out on Tuesday March 20, are expected to remain roughly unchanged from previous at 0.69 million. Housing Starts, also expected to remain similar to previous at 0.7 million. We have potentially based in both these measures so could potentially see better than expected results.

On Wednesday March 21, we have US Existing Home Sales to look forward to. Current expectations are for a continued consolidation slightly up from previous at 4.61 million. Finally, on Friday March 23, we have US New Home Sales figures with expectations also close to previous at 326 thousand. All these housing figures have potential for surprise to the upside.

Please feel free to comment, there seems to be a lack of debate as far as fundamental issues are concerned.
 
thanks for the insights, but your thread has the same title as another famous active thread, I accidentally clicked on yours hoping for some of Grand Super pooper's wisdom
 
Although I cannot profess to be a grand super pooper, I can however say that in spite of Euro zone's problems; today's current account surplus does highlight the region's overall competitiveness vis a vis the rest of the world.

Now obviously this is already priced into the markets .... so no real surprise there! But it is generally recommended that traders stay ahead of the game as far as these developments are concerned.

A good understanding of the markets and what drives them is IMHO essential for any aspiring professional
 
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