Market Outlook

[N54_Fan]

Quote from GrandSupercycle:

N54_Fan,
I've just found your earlier reference to diamond patterns which was posted before mine.
But why do you continually refer to them as continuation patterns ie a continuation of the current uptrend.

In this context diamonds are REVERSAL patterns so it's a bearish warning.

Many would view them as continuation patterns...Yes a continuation of the current uptrend. We will have to agree to disagree then. If it is a reversal pattern then I think most would view it as a H&S type of pattern as the uptrend forms the Left Shoulder and the "diamond" forms the head and neck line and the downtrend reversal forms the right shoulder.

Notice on the chart below the 2 diamonds that were recent continuation patterns and how the current diamond pattern would look more like a H&S top if it breaks downward and like a diamond continuation if it breaks upward. I think we will see soon enough.

N54_Fan

 

[GrandSupercycle]

More USD selling which supports EURUSD and stocks.

 

[GrandSupercycle]

Quote from N54_Fan:
Many would view them as continuation patterns...Yes a continuation of the current uptrend.

N54_Fan
YOU ARE INCORRECT.
IF IT IS A DIAMOND --- THEN IT'S A DIAMOND TOP REVERSAL AS IT OCCURS IN AN UPTREND.
Google is your friend...
And the first 'diamond' on your chart is not a diamond.





USDJPY and EURAUD intra bullish warning.

 

[N54_Fan]

Quote from GrandSupercycle:

N54_Fan
YOU ARE INCORRECT.
IF IT IS A DIAMOND --- THEN IT'S A DIAMOND TOP REVERSAL AS IT OCCURS IN AN UPTREND.
Google is your friend...
And the first 'diamond' on your chart is not a diamond.





USDJPY and EURAUD intra bullish warning.

I'm not getting in a pissing match with you Unicycle. I'm telling you how I see it and many others I know see it. The people on ET can determine for themselves who has been right in this market and who has posted info that is actually productive to trading. I dont make my trade decisions solely off the patterns anyway. In fact my system just about ignores them completely. I only use them as warning signs.

Lastly I could care less how you classify diamond patterns as you have failed to provide any info that has ever amounted to a tradable piece of information. All of ET sees this as well.

 

[bone]

Quote from GrandSupercycle:

In this context diamonds are REVERSAL patterns so it's a bearish warning.

Umm, you've had a "bearish warning" for how many months now and how many pages of posts and how many points in your face during the current rally ?

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from GrandSupercycle:

N54_Fan,
I've just found your earlier reference to diamond patterns which was posted before mine.
But why do you continually refer to them as continuation patterns ie a continuation of the current uptrend.
You are mistaken.

In this context diamonds are REVERSAL patterns so it's a bearish warning.

So if it's going up it's a sign that it's over extended.
If it's going down it's a sign that the crash is iiminent.
If the signal is bearish, it's a bearish signal
If the signal is bullish, in this context it's bearish.

You're a tool.

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from N54_Fan:

I'm not getting in a pissing match with you Unicycle. I'm telling you how I see it and many others I know see it. The people on ET can determine for themselves who has been right in this market and who has posted info that is actually productive to trading. I dont make my trade decisions solely off the patterns anyway. In fact my system just about ignores them completely. I only use them as warning signs.

Lastly I could care less how you classify diamond patterns as you have failed to provide any info that has ever amounted to a tradable piece of information. All of ET sees this as well.

I wouldn't bother with him. He's a bozo. But I appreciate the color you are providing and I am learning a lot from it.
How do you determine if a pattern is a diamond pattern or not? Do you draw lines until something looks like it fits? Is it based on your experiences that you can see what type of pattern you may be seeing?

 

[GrandSupercycle]

USDJPY intra bullish signal confirmed ...

 

[N54_Fan]

Quote from newwurldmn:

I wouldn't bother with him. He's a bozo. But I appreciate the color you are providing and I am learning a lot from it.
How do you determine if a pattern is a diamond pattern or not? Do you draw lines until something looks like it fits? Is it based on your experiences that you can see what type of pattern you may be seeing?

I know he's trying to look smart by vocalizing every twist in the market and act like he knew what was going to happen.

Obviously I like to see higher highs and higher lows. But when i see higher high and then a lower low I think of 1 of 3 things.

1) trend line break
2) megaphone or H&S top
3) Diamond continuation or bull flag formation

The first 2 are bearish and the last one is bullish. I then will tighten my stops because it is possibly a top of some kind. I am also vigilant that if I get shaken out of my long position by triggering my stop then i look for the market to make me a fool and bounce higher. If it does I am more likely to get back in quickly and think of it as a continuation pattern like bull flag or diamond continuation pattern. I will lose a little in the market when I buy in at a higher price than I stopped out at...but so what. The times it is a top I am saving much more than I lose in these continuation patterns. A meaningfull short term top usually moves ~10% lower from the peak and I will usually save plenty of money and buy back in when the market reverses higher.

Also, I look at my MACD. I know many on here think indicators and MACD especially are useless but I tell you it works wonder for me. If MACD is pointing higher on weekly then this is usually a top that is a correction, especially if above the 0 line.

Bottom line is that it is very hard to trade the RIGHT edge of the chart. It is always obvious what you should have done in hind sight. Best case is to always think "what if I am wrong...."what am I going to do?" and then "how can i minimze risk and even profit if I am wrong?

Hope this helps

N54_Fan

 

[GrandSupercycle]

Reminder that SP500 monthly chart continues to give bearish warnings and USDX monthly chart continues to give bullish warnings. This big picture outlook will not change.