Update with new table that shows USD-adjusted stock index performance.
Market observations and actions
- Thread starter Market_Observer
- Start date
Update with new table that shows USD-adjusted stock index performance.
this data might be useful to the investors from eliteinvestor.com.
It is of not much use to the traders.
You should also publish the cumulative day / week range.
Sorry, what does cumulative data / week range mean? Any examples?
Singapore's Straits Times Index has cemented its leading position among stock indices. 12Feb2022
2 weeks ago when I observed that STI has become the number one performer gaining 3.93% year-to-date, Straits Times Index(STI) ended this week gaining 9.6% year-to-date. STI has further strengthened its leading position among stock indices year-to-date for the past 2 weeks.
To check out the sentiments among Singapore investors regarding STI and the Singapore stock market, I started 2 threads on a popular financial forum among the locals. One about the wonderful performance of STI this year, the other about my optimism regarding Singapore's stock market in the coming years. These threads attracted intelligent comments, including from the naysayers. The amount of negative comments boosts my optimism. I'm not saying the naysayers are wrong but if the consensus is bull market ahead, then most likely it is not going to happen.
In financial markets, consensus opinion on a bull market is usually wrong because it means there's little money left to drive the market anymore.
Having nay-sayers is a good sign for an impending bull market in STI and Singapore's stock market.
This week was a good one for HK and China stock indices as well. Despite this, the broad market is weak. Most stocks are still trading below the key moving averages. Still not a good market for traders to get aggressively in.
Furthermore, the present U.S rally looks increasingly like a bear market sucker rally. The power rally is in the energy sector.
Mr Market is worried about rising interest rates and Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Let's observe how much Asian markets weaken next week in response to U.S market's weakness.
2 weeks ago when I observed that STI has become the number one performer gaining 3.93% year-to-date, Straits Times Index(STI) ended this week gaining 9.6% year-to-date. STI has further strengthened its leading position among stock indices year-to-date for the past 2 weeks.
To check out the sentiments among Singapore investors regarding STI and the Singapore stock market, I started 2 threads on a popular financial forum among the locals. One about the wonderful performance of STI this year, the other about my optimism regarding Singapore's stock market in the coming years. These threads attracted intelligent comments, including from the naysayers. The amount of negative comments boosts my optimism. I'm not saying the naysayers are wrong but if the consensus is bull market ahead, then most likely it is not going to happen.
In financial markets, consensus opinion on a bull market is usually wrong because it means there's little money left to drive the market anymore.
Having nay-sayers is a good sign for an impending bull market in STI and Singapore's stock market.
This week was a good one for HK and China stock indices as well. Despite this, the broad market is weak. Most stocks are still trading below the key moving averages. Still not a good market for traders to get aggressively in.
Furthermore, the present U.S rally looks increasingly like a bear market sucker rally. The power rally is in the energy sector.
Mr Market is worried about rising interest rates and Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Let's observe how much Asian markets weaken next week in response to U.S market's weakness.
Made a mistake in my calculations for USD-adjusted year gain for Straits Times Index(STI).
The correct year-to-date gain for STI is 9.94%, not at the lower 9.6%, thanks to the stronger Singapore dollar (SGD) against USD.
A stronger currency versus USD this year is exceptional performance since USD has been strengthening against most currencies this year, due to Federal Reserve's impending rate hikes.
In the table below, only SGD and THB (Thai Baht) managed to be stronger than USD year-to-date. THB weakened by 10% against USD last year, so a rebound is reasonable.
The correct year-to-date gain for STI is 9.94%, not at the lower 9.6%, thanks to the stronger Singapore dollar (SGD) against USD.
A stronger currency versus USD this year is exceptional performance since USD has been strengthening against most currencies this year, due to Federal Reserve's impending rate hikes.
In the table below, only SGD and THB (Thai Baht) managed to be stronger than USD year-to-date. THB weakened by 10% against USD last year, so a rebound is reasonable.
Singapore's Straits Times Index has cemented its leading position among stock indices. 12Feb2022
2 weeks ago when I observed that STI has become the number one performer gaining 3.93% year-to-date, Straits Times Index(STI) ended this week gaining 9.6% year-to-date. STI has further strengthened its leading position among stock indices year-to-date for the past 2 weeks.
To check out the sentiments among Singapore investors regarding STI and the Singapore stock market, I started 2 threads on a popular financial forum among the locals. One about the wonderful performance of STI this year, the other about my optimism regarding Singapore's stock market in the coming years. These threads attracted intelligent comments, including from the naysayers. The amount of negative comments boosts my optimism. I'm not saying the naysayers are wrong but if the consensus is bull market ahead, then most likely it is not going to happen.
In financial markets, consensus opinion on a bull market is usually wrong because it means there's little money left to drive the market anymore.
Having nay-sayers is a good sign for an impending bull market in STI and Singapore's stock market.
This week was a good one for HK and China stock indices as well. Despite this, the broad market is weak. Most stocks are still trading below the key moving averages. Still not a good market for traders to get aggressively in.
Furthermore, the present U.S rally looks increasingly like a bear market sucker rally. The power rally is in the energy sector.
Mr Market is worried about rising interest rates and Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Let's observe how much Asian markets weaken next week in response to U.S market's weakness.
Straits Times Index resilient this week despite war jitters. Oil-producing countries have become global stock leaders. 18Feb2022
Singapore Straits Times Index(STI) remains resilient in a week rocked up and down by Russian-Ukraine war jitters. It is the market leader among Asian stock markets today. The USD-adjusted year-to-date gain for STI is 10.06% as of 19Feb2022.
Right at the top are the stock indices of the world's major oil-producing countries, Brazil and Saudi Arabia. The powerful rally in oil has propelled them to the top. The oil rally means inflation is likely to stay high. High inflation will cause central bankers to raise interest rates. Rising interest rates are going to be bad for stock markets, particularly this round since the strong stock market rally in the past decade was driven by record low interest rates.
Given the strong momentum in energy commodities, I will pay special attention to energy-related stocks this year. Unfortunately, many have already run up and is no longer safe to buy up.
2022 has been a terrible year for global tech stocks so far.
Right at the bottom are the technology stock indices of the world's 2 biggest economies. Nasdaq100 is near the bottom. At the very bottom is ChiNext index which is China's Nasdaq-style stock index.
Broad market statistics do not look good enough to go aggressive. My stock portfolio size remains small at the moment.
U.S stock indices did not rebound from last week's bad streak and followed up with another bad week.
In this market environment, it is safer to keep more cash on hand to wait for opportunities to emerge later. Entry criteria will remain stricter than normal.
Singapore Straits Times Index(STI) remains resilient in a week rocked up and down by Russian-Ukraine war jitters. It is the market leader among Asian stock markets today. The USD-adjusted year-to-date gain for STI is 10.06% as of 19Feb2022.
Right at the top are the stock indices of the world's major oil-producing countries, Brazil and Saudi Arabia. The powerful rally in oil has propelled them to the top. The oil rally means inflation is likely to stay high. High inflation will cause central bankers to raise interest rates. Rising interest rates are going to be bad for stock markets, particularly this round since the strong stock market rally in the past decade was driven by record low interest rates.
Given the strong momentum in energy commodities, I will pay special attention to energy-related stocks this year. Unfortunately, many have already run up and is no longer safe to buy up.
2022 has been a terrible year for global tech stocks so far.
Right at the bottom are the technology stock indices of the world's 2 biggest economies. Nasdaq100 is near the bottom. At the very bottom is ChiNext index which is China's Nasdaq-style stock index.
Broad market statistics do not look good enough to go aggressive. My stock portfolio size remains small at the moment.
U.S stock indices did not rebound from last week's bad streak and followed up with another bad week.
In this market environment, it is safer to keep more cash on hand to wait for opportunities to emerge later. Entry criteria will remain stricter than normal.
The highlight of this week has to be the Russian-Ukraine war which crashed global markets.
The stock market and forex market are telling us that the biggest loser in the Russian-Ukraine war is the war aggressor who started the war - Russia.
Year-to-date, the biggest stock index loser is Russia. Russia MOEX index is down 34.77% YTD. Year-to-date, the biggest currency loser is Russian Ruble(RUB). RUB is down 11.3% against USD YTD.
Despite the horrible Russian market performance, I started a small position in a Russian equity fund yesterday(24Feb2022) against my usual rules. I broke my rule of not buying stuff that is in a severe downtrend. Rules, especially time-tested ones, are meant to be followed most of the time but should not be followed all of the time. Uncompromising stubbornness in following rules will lead to stagnation.
Despite the horrible Russian market performance, I started a small position in a Russian equity fund yesterday(24Feb2022) against my usual rules. I broke my rule of not buying stuff that is in a severe downtrend. Rules, especially time-tested ones, are meant to be followed most of the time but should not be followed all of the time. Uncompromising stubbornness in following rules will lead to stagnation.
Here's why I broke the rule.
Russia MOEX index crashed 45% at one point on 24Feb2022, the day I took action to buy. A fall of this magnitude is very rare and is an obvious sign of panic dumping. The odds of a quick rebound and quick money to be made is high. Buying when others are panicking is an edge that never dies.
I am likely to take some profits off my position later, if an opportunity presents itself, and leave the remaining for longer-term investment.
It is dangerous to buy in a downtrend because what goes down tends to go down more. This is particularly so for individual stocks. Companies can go bankrupt. Stocks can go to zero. However, it is almost impossible for stock indices which are essentially a diversified portfolio of big-cap stocks to go to zero. Can you imagine blue-chip companies declaring bankruptcy all at the same time?
I bought an equity fund benchmarked to the Russian RTS index. I have no experience with Russian stocks, so buying an equity fund and relying on professional fund managers with expertise investing in that country is more sensible than DIY.
I liked what I saw on the price chart. When price crashes after a period of an uptrend, it is a signal to get ready to sell. On the other hand, when the price crashes huge after a period of a downtrend, it is a signal to start buying some. Hence, I bought an equity fund to gain exposure to Russia on the day when the Russian stock index crashed 45%.
Commodities are on a strong uptrend in 2022. Stock indices of commodity-dependent countries like Saudi and Brazil stock indices are the top 2 performers year-to-date. Yet, Russia is down right at the bottom by a wide margin. Minus the geopolitics, economic fundamentals for Russia is strong.
The fund bought was JPMorgan Russian Securities(JRS) listed on the London Stock Exchange.
The fund is currently trading at a discount of 13.3% from its net asset value at this point of writing. The dividend yield based on current price is 10.45%. This is why I bought a fund from the London Stock Exchange(LSE) and not at U.S exchanges to avoid the 30% dividend withholding fees imposed on Singaporeans for U.S securities, though there is an expensive 0.5% stamp fee on LSE.
The stock market and forex market are telling us that the biggest loser in the Russian-Ukraine war is the war aggressor who started the war - Russia.
Year-to-date, the biggest stock index loser is Russia. Russia MOEX index is down 34.77% YTD. Year-to-date, the biggest currency loser is Russian Ruble(RUB). RUB is down 11.3% against USD YTD.
Despite the horrible Russian market performance, I started a small position in a Russian equity fund yesterday(24Feb2022) against my usual rules. I broke my rule of not buying stuff that is in a severe downtrend. Rules, especially time-tested ones, are meant to be followed most of the time but should not be followed all of the time. Uncompromising stubbornness in following rules will lead to stagnation.
Despite the horrible Russian market performance, I started a small position in a Russian equity fund yesterday(24Feb2022) against my usual rules. I broke my rule of not buying stuff that is in a severe downtrend. Rules, especially time-tested ones, are meant to be followed most of the time but should not be followed all of the time. Uncompromising stubbornness in following rules will lead to stagnation.
Here's why I broke the rule.
Russia MOEX index crashed 45% at one point on 24Feb2022, the day I took action to buy. A fall of this magnitude is very rare and is an obvious sign of panic dumping. The odds of a quick rebound and quick money to be made is high. Buying when others are panicking is an edge that never dies.
I am likely to take some profits off my position later, if an opportunity presents itself, and leave the remaining for longer-term investment.
It is dangerous to buy in a downtrend because what goes down tends to go down more. This is particularly so for individual stocks. Companies can go bankrupt. Stocks can go to zero. However, it is almost impossible for stock indices which are essentially a diversified portfolio of big-cap stocks to go to zero. Can you imagine blue-chip companies declaring bankruptcy all at the same time?
I bought an equity fund benchmarked to the Russian RTS index. I have no experience with Russian stocks, so buying an equity fund and relying on professional fund managers with expertise investing in that country is more sensible than DIY.
I liked what I saw on the price chart. When price crashes after a period of an uptrend, it is a signal to get ready to sell. On the other hand, when the price crashes huge after a period of a downtrend, it is a signal to start buying some. Hence, I bought an equity fund to gain exposure to Russia on the day when the Russian stock index crashed 45%.
Commodities are on a strong uptrend in 2022. Stock indices of commodity-dependent countries like Saudi and Brazil stock indices are the top 2 performers year-to-date. Yet, Russia is down right at the bottom by a wide margin. Minus the geopolitics, economic fundamentals for Russia is strong.
The fund bought was JPMorgan Russian Securities(JRS) listed on the London Stock Exchange.
The fund is currently trading at a discount of 13.3% from its net asset value at this point of writing. The dividend yield based on current price is 10.45%. This is why I bought a fund from the London Stock Exchange(LSE) and not at U.S exchanges to avoid the 30% dividend withholding fees imposed on Singaporeans for U.S securities, though there is an expensive 0.5% stamp fee on LSE.
Straits Times Index resilient this week despite war jitters. Oil-producing countries have become global stock leaders. 18Feb2022
Singapore Straits Times Index(STI) remains resilient in a week rocked up and down by Russian-Ukraine war jitters. It is the market leader among Asian stock markets today. The USD-adjusted year-to-date gain for STI is 10.06% as of 19Feb2022.
Right at the top are the stock indices of the world's major oil-producing countries, Brazil and Saudi Arabia. The powerful rally in oil has propelled them to the top. The oil rally means inflation is likely to stay high. High inflation will cause central bankers to raise interest rates. Rising interest rates are going to be bad for stock markets, particularly this round since the strong stock market rally in the past decade was driven by record low interest rates.
Given the strong momentum in energy commodities, I will pay special attention to energy-related stocks this year. Unfortunately, many have already run up and is no longer safe to buy up.
2022 has been a terrible year for global tech stocks so far.
Right at the bottom are the technology stock indices of the world's 2 biggest economies. Nasdaq100 is near the bottom. At the very bottom is ChiNext index which is China's Nasdaq-style stock index.
Broad market statistics do not look good enough to go aggressive. My stock portfolio size remains small at the moment.
U.S stock indices did not rebound from last week's bad streak and followed up with another bad week.
In this market environment, it is safer to keep more cash on hand to wait for opportunities to emerge later. Entry criteria will remain stricter than normal.
straits times index (or rather MSCI Singapore futures)
is one of the worst futures in this world to trade.
Its volatility is far far too low.
For those with a weaker heart, lower volatility may not be a bad thing. If a trader could master S&P500 futures, that would be ideal but I think it is too competitive. The lesser known ones may be easier to trade, thanks to fewer elitetraders taking the lunch away.
Time to add and hunt for more Singapore stocks (19Mar2022)
After taking painful batterings for the past few weeks since the outbreak in the Russia-Ukraine war, this week was a strong week for stock markets all over the world.
What I like about the momentum is how the market rallied despite bad news with the U.S raising interest rates, lockdowns in China and Hong Kong due to worsening Covid-19 conditions and the ongoing war in Europe. The turning point in China/HK came when Beijing voiced support for the markets. Unfortunately, I do not feel that China/HK stock markets have recovered enough to resume buying their stocks, given how badly they were beaten down. I will wait a little longer. On the other hand, the Singapore stock market has shown resilience during the downturn in recent weeks. As a momentum trader, I will add more Singapore stocks going forward.
Best stock indices year-to-date
Straits Times Index has again taken the crown as the leading Asian stock index performer of 2022 after losing to Indonesia Jakarta composite index for a period of time during the recent downturn.
Worst stock indices year-to-date
China/HK stock indices appear among the worst stock indices year-to-date.
Broad market statistics for China/HK markets are still weak.
From the numbers, I will adopt a wait-and-see approach on the China/HK markets.
Another reason I am confident in the Singapore market is the resilience of my Singapore stock portfolio during the recent downdraft. Some of the palm-oil counters like Bumitama-Agri and Golden-Agri did fine. The biggest winner was RH Petrogas but it is no longer safe to chase this stock after the run-up.
This week, I added positions to the ex blue-chips like Sembcorp Marine, Keppel Corp, Jardine Cycle and Carriage.
If the momentum continues, I will be buying more Singapore stocks.
After taking painful batterings for the past few weeks since the outbreak in the Russia-Ukraine war, this week was a strong week for stock markets all over the world.
What I like about the momentum is how the market rallied despite bad news with the U.S raising interest rates, lockdowns in China and Hong Kong due to worsening Covid-19 conditions and the ongoing war in Europe. The turning point in China/HK came when Beijing voiced support for the markets. Unfortunately, I do not feel that China/HK stock markets have recovered enough to resume buying their stocks, given how badly they were beaten down. I will wait a little longer. On the other hand, the Singapore stock market has shown resilience during the downturn in recent weeks. As a momentum trader, I will add more Singapore stocks going forward.
Best stock indices year-to-date
Straits Times Index has again taken the crown as the leading Asian stock index performer of 2022 after losing to Indonesia Jakarta composite index for a period of time during the recent downturn.
Worst stock indices year-to-date
China/HK stock indices appear among the worst stock indices year-to-date.
Broad market statistics for China/HK markets are still weak.
From the numbers, I will adopt a wait-and-see approach on the China/HK markets.
Another reason I am confident in the Singapore market is the resilience of my Singapore stock portfolio during the recent downdraft. Some of the palm-oil counters like Bumitama-Agri and Golden-Agri did fine. The biggest winner was RH Petrogas but it is no longer safe to chase this stock after the run-up.
This week, I added positions to the ex blue-chips like Sembcorp Marine, Keppel Corp, Jardine Cycle and Carriage.
If the momentum continues, I will be buying more Singapore stocks.