Market is churning...

[MacroEvent]

Quote from patoo:

R U trying to rain on my rally??

you just had a 12 day run --- what more do you want!!! LOL!!!

fear and GREED!

 

[WolfVector]

“I am betting on a swift reversal to the downside coming soon.”

With options expirations this week, there should be some volatile moves. We are approaching overhead resistance in the SP-500:

1243: Sep05 High
1246: Aug05 High
1254: 0.618 Fib Retracement from Oct02 Low to Mar00 High

The following scenarios assume that it’s more likely that “they” will test overhead resistance (i.e., stay in the direction of the current trend) before they take it down.

1. A test of 1246, a slight pullback, then a test of 1254, and then a major reversal.

2. A test of 1246, a slight pullback, then a test of 1254, a slight pullback, and then a major breakout.

3. A test of 1246 and then a major reversal to test the bottom of the current range.

 

[reno4nook]

fwiw...It's obvious that the markets have risen sharply and are TECHNICALLY oversold.

but I am somewhat cautious about shorting now.

There has been a lot of FUNDAMENTALLY excellent news recently.

GDP up to 3.8%
Unemployment is excellent
last 10year treasury auction turned away lenders
New Fed boss Bernacke well received
Us Dollar up big recently
Last months deficit less than expected
Oil prices falling
Corporate profits still good
World wide markets rising

And of course, we are in a period of great Bullish seasonality.

 

[DeepFried]

Quote from reno4nook:

fwiw...It's obvious that the markets have risen sharply and are TECHNICALLY oversold.

Do you mean technically overbought?

I agree on your points. Even though we've had an extended rally I'm nervous about shorting this market.

"Don't fight the tape." Or, as one trader always used to yell at a coworker of mine, "You're not bigger than the market!!!!"

 

[reno4nook]

Quote from DeepFried:
Do you mean technically overbought?

yes we are over-BOUGHT

doh!!

 

[Trend Fader]

Quote from reno4nook:

fwiw...It's obvious that the markets have risen sharply and are TECHNICALLY oversold.

but I am somewhat cautious about shorting now.

There has been a lot of FUNDAMENTALLY excellent news recently.

GDP up to 3.8%
Unemployment is excellent
last 10year treasury auction turned away lenders
New Fed boss Bernacke well received
Us Dollar up big recently
Last months deficit less than expected
Oil prices falling
Corporate profits still good
World wide markets rising

And of course, we are in a period of great Bullish seasonality.

Thats why the S&P is up 60 points off the lows in the past few weeks.

Everything u mentioned is baked in to the cake.. now lets look forward..

 

[jficquette]

Quote from Trend Fader:

Decliners are leading advancers yet up volume is > than down volume.. classic signs of a market churning higher with the broader indices posting gains..

I am betting on a swift reversal to the downside coming soon.


--MIKE

When that happens it means big caps are being bought. Advance decline line has many more non big caps then big caps. When non big caps are sold this will affect the decline line like a big cap but the volume is much lower on most of these and it does not come out of volume same way.

etc.

John

 

[Enfinity]

Announcing your bearish/bullish sentiment without a time horizon makes a discussion virtually worthless...

 

[Trend Fader]

Quote from Enfinity:

Announcing your bearish/bullish sentiment without a time horizon makes a discussion virtually worthless...

No it doesnt.. i posted my trades... options are expiring friday.

 

[coolweb]

Quote from jficquette:

When that happens it means big caps are being bought. Advance decline line has many more non big caps then big caps. When non big caps are sold this will affect the decline line like a big cap but the volume is much lower on most of these and it does not come out of volume same way.

etc.

John

cool explanation , thanks for the info