Market has topped on 2019/11/07. Get the hell out now.

[maxinger]

No, Powell's mouth alone had the biggest impact on his very first day on the job, Feb 5th 2018. The day after his 65th birthday, I came to learn later. It was an uncanny two weeks after that. Huge drop during his first week, and then a week later? Poof, back up to where it was.

The Q4 2018 drop was more a gang-bang of the interest rate hikes IMHO. I did not see it coming, for sure, but it wasn't specifically anything Powell said on his own. More of a consensus as the rates started rising.

Mreh. I miss Yellen and her easy-going *yawning* on rates, lol!

actually all the US Fed chief did a great job.
They moved the market tremendously and provided hugh trading opportunity.


There are other country Fed chief who hardly move the market (eg Japan)

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

No, Powell's mouth alone had the biggest impact on his very first day on the job, Feb 5th 2018. The day after his 65th birthday, I came to learn later. It was an uncanny two weeks after that. Huge drop during his first week, and then a week later? Poof, back up to where it was.

The Q4 2018 drop was more a gang-bang of the interest rate hikes IMHO. I did not see it coming, for sure, but it wasn't specifically anything Powell said on his own. More of a consensus as the rates started rising.

Mreh. I miss Yellen and her easy-going *yawning* on rates, lol!

The October 2018 drop was him talking about interest rates. But the point is still valid: news events do change things on a dime and then the thing you have to do is guess at the sentiment.

Is it a permanent thing? Or is the market being a little b*tch? Hiking interest rates -> new regime. New Fed Chairman -> probably showing him who is boss, nothing has actually changed. Of course, this is with the benefit of hindsight.

Market did a little dance for Yellen too:

And the beard (Bernanke):

 

[schizo]

You sound like someone who operates on emotions and can't focus on data driven facts that put some doubt into your theories. You can come up with REAL reasons why markets may correct within two months, but comparing them to the end of the dot com isn't valid.

If you want to talk about posted forecasts, in July last year I forecast the SPX would touch 3200 by end of year.

Au contraire. If you lived through the dot.com bubble, you would surely know about the following quote. Rampant greed was what crippled the economy in 2000 and 2008. It's no different this time either.

 

[Overnight]

...The October 2018 drop was him talking about interest rates. But the point is still valid: news events do change things on a dime and then the thing you have to do is guess at the sentiment....

Mmmm, indeed, I started following the markets with charts in earnest since only mid-summer 2015, and at that point not putting 2 and 2 together as much as I do now. Relatively speaking, after the drop in Jan 2016, things just seemed all calm cool and collected until Powell's first day.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Mmmm, indeed, I started following the markets with charts in earnest since only mid-summer 2015, and at that point not putting 2 and 2 together as much as I do now. Relatively speaking, after the drop in Jan 2016, things just seemed all calm cool and collected until Powell's first day.

Yeah that's why I have tried to lock down the ways I analyze charts. Step 1 is to have a very limited set of things I look at for myself, step 2 is to listen to people smarter than myself on the topic about what they think. Of the two YT channels I posted above, one is basically a permabear looking for the top, the other thinks more long term (and played Q4 2018 fucking beautifully). When they both start agreeing, I know something's up. God protect them.

 

[themickey]

See this is what I don't understand. Why predict at all? Who gives a !@#$?......
I won't really predict the turn because I'm not that good. Even Dalio has to hedge against a turn. Why do you guys think calling a turn is useful at all?

Anyone who calls themselves a trader is highly likely to be mulling over 'what next' especially after the recent strong market run up.
Myself, I'm heavily invested in nearly 40 different positions, no fear, just mildly keen on reading the signs. Currently the market is very bullish, a little bit too much so, but this is the Santa Rally.
I reckon the market could turn very quickly, quicker than normal, that's basically what I'm saying.
It's a well known phenomena that the markets are like elastic, the harder they stretch one way, the harder they retrace.
As for predicting, I'm not good at that and doubt many people are, reaction is what I trade and after this Santa Rally, it may be the goblin's opportunity to come down the chimney.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Anyone who calls themselves a trader is highly likely to be mulling over 'what next' especially after the recent strong market run up.
Myself, I'm heavily invested in nearly 40 different positions, no fear, just mildly keen on reading the signs. Currently the market is very bullish, a little bit too much so, but this is the Santa Rally.
I reckon the market could turn very quickly, quicker than normal, that's basically what I'm saying.
It's a well known phenomena that the markets are like elastic, the harder they stretch one way, the harder they retrace.
As for predicting, I'm not good at that and doubt many people are, reaction is what I trade and after this Santa Rally, it may be the goblin's opportunity to come down the chimney.

Of course, being reasonably cautious is a good thing. Your heavily invested may just be 0.1% of volume for the day for each position, right? Unless you are 10% of the market? Is it really a concern to just hit the "SELL EVERY FUCKING THING" button?

Edit: unless it's penny stocks in which case God be with ye.

Double edit: I guess I'm asking: are you doing anything to prepare or are you just worrying with no action?

 

[themickey]

Of course, being reasonably cautious is a good thing. Your heavily invested may just be 0.1% of volume for the day for each position, right? Unless you are 10% of the market? Is it really a concern to just hit the "SELL EVERY FUCKING THING" button?

Edit: unless it's penny stocks in which case God be with ye.

Double edit: I guess I'm asking: are you doing anything to prepare or are you just worrying with no action?

Reasonably diversified with maybe 25% gold.
As for pennys, yeah got a few of them (small positions) as I was experimenting with a new trading method, which although not a disaster, more like the positions are doing fuc* all. Every time the market rallies strong, the pennys fall, everytime market pulls back, pennys rally. But once I sell my pennys my new trading system can go the hell.
So market tanking will largely be good, my gold and pennys will take up the slack.
Still got plenty of cash sidelined, not gonna buy anything atm.

 

[nooby_mcnoob]

Reasonably diversified with maybe 25% gold.
As for pennys, yeah got a few of them (small positions) as I was experimenting with a new trading method, which although not a disaster, more like the positions are doing fuc* all. Every time the market rallies strong, the pennys fall, everytime market pulls back, pennys rally. But once I sell my pennys my new trading system can go the hell.
So market tanking will largely be good, my gold and pennys will take up the slack.
Still got plenty of cash sidelined, not gonna buy anything atm.

Ah so you have taken action and are just waiting to see what happens. The worst is people who worry, do nothing, and then as a result keep worrying.

 

[themickey]

Ah so you have taken action and are just waiting to see what happens. The worst is people who worry, do nothing, and then as a result keep worrying.

A number of people on ET have commented over the years they fear holding overnight and fear holding stocks due to a wipeout. All I know is stocks, and the way my mind thinks, there are good surprises and bad surprises. With careful selection good surprises should outweigh the bad. If quality is bought, most often if it has a bad surprise it will rally back quick enough given a bit of time.