Market has topped on 2019/11/07. Get the hell out now.

[bone]

Your argument has lukewarm merit - in many ways interest rates are less powerful these days than they were in the past.

The BoJ held negative interest rates for a decade and the Nikkei certainly wasn't setting records for the time - quite the opposite.

The EU equity markets have been consistently lagging US equity markets and the US TY yields are something like 2.25 points higher than the Bund - just off the highs for the spread set in late 2018. Compare US versus EU interest rate yields and then overlay the S&P 500 with the DJ EuroStoxx.

The main force behind this market advance is low interest rates. The ten years is coming back up but it was pretty low. Also factor in the talk of neg interests rates and stocks still look very cheap. Especially stocks that have an up side and pay dividends.

 

[Clubber Lang]

If the SPX drops to 1500s I'd mortgage my house to buy blue chip shares. Dividends alone would cover the interest.

In 2007-2008 how many people were saying “Nothing like the safety of blue chip stocks with solid dividends, like GM AIG GE FNMA etc etc”

 

[noddyboy]

If the S&P fell to 1500 in short order there probably won't be any banks around that would offer you a mortgage.

I don't think so. I think the world will be just fine. It was just overvalued but banks will still be around.

 

[Nine_Ender]

Make sure you have enough margin to still be short at 3300.

That approach in 1999 on the Nasdaq would have been a huge money loser. Some would argue the Nasdaq was hugely overvalued Jan 1, 1999. It went up 85% that year.

 

[LanceJ]

Top, right. The fed is keeping a lid on money market rates so the bears can borrow for margin calls at reasonable rates while the next leg continues up.

 

[SunTrader]

Thursday's Dow high was 58 calendar days from previous high - which was 58 calendar days from the one before that. Actually 58th day is today but close enough for gubmint work.

 

[maxinger]

And after u close your investment, market continue to go even higher

 

[tiddlywinks]

Thursday's Dow high was 58 calendar days from previous high - which was 58 calendar days from the one before that. Actually 58th day is today but close enough for gubmint work.

What is the significance of 58 days? A series of 1?
Seems like nothing but a speculation rather than a repeating pattern to me.

 

[SunTrader]

What is the significance of 58 days? A series of 1?
Seems like nothing but a speculation rather than a repeating pattern to me.

The prior two H-H swings were 57 and 84 (which is roughly 1.5 times).

Not calling a top like others, just pointing this out.

 

[ET180]

If the SPX drops to 1500s I'd mortgage my house to buy blue chip shares. Dividends alone would cover the interest.

What if the cause of that 1500 mark was the election of a politician that imposed 50% federal income tax bracket at $100k and 6% annual wealth tax on any wealth over $1M? I can think of situations that would change my investment outlook, even at 1500 S&P.