Market gyrations

D

dealmaker

Market gyrations

How historic is the current market volatility? As Ritholz Wealth Management's Ben Carlson explains for Fortune, there have been 53 double-digit corrections in the stock market in the last nine decades or so, but the current one "feels different because there is the prospect of a looming pandemic and potential economic slowdown…Just remember that the fact that stocks have fallen so hard so fast doesn't necessarily make it any easier to predict what comes next." Fortune
 
It always feels and seems different for most people when they sit in the middle of the chaos. In hindsight, everything is nice and easy and can be explained.

When everybody around you is in panic, it is easy to join the hysteria. This time it has to be different ! Everything is falling ! Nobody knows what will happen...

It has been the same in 1987, 1998, 2001, 2008, 2010, and many other years. There is always a different cause, a new black swan. But the reaction of the crowd is always the same. Corona virus sucks, I agree. But so did the wars of the past, nuclear race or 9/11. Neither of these events resulted in the end of the world. It wont be any different this time.
 
This is why I don’t care to listen to, trade off from, or try to correlate market action with news. There is always a bearish and bullish interpretation of the news. I don't know which side will win until the market clearly shows it via the chart. I cannot anticipate it. But I can observe what price does. Trading decisions or rather making them prior to forthcoming news events is not my cup of of tea. I want the market to tip it’s hand and not bet upon some pundit’s interpretation of a news event.

Here a rate cut and market falls 100’s of points.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy...reserves-coronavirus-fueled-interest-rate-cut
 
volpri said:
This is why I don’t care to listen to, trade off from, or try to correlate market action with news. There is always a bearish and bullish interpretation of the news. I don't know which side will win until the market clearly shows it via the chart. I cannot anticipate it. But I can observe what price does. Trading decisions or rather making them prior to forthcoming news events is not my cup of of tea. I want the market to tip it’s hand and not bet upon some pundit’s interpretation of a news event.

Here a rate cut and market falls 100’s of points.

https://www.usnews.com/news/economy...reserves-coronavirus-fueled-interest-rate-cut
More...
Exactly;
+ so much of the news is nonsense. CNBC old pandemic/prediction of bird flu is so typical.
.52 week record sell volume can be a clue. Good thing for the bulls, most companies are run better than DALsector- that sector tends to be a downtrend looking for a place to happen...………………………………………………………………..NOT a prediction.
 
dealmaker said:
Just remember that the fact that stocks have fallen so hard so fast doesn't necessarily make it any easier to predict what comes next."
More...
are you kidding me?

the fastest moves in the market are counter trend- always.

why? because fear is always greater motivation than greed.

fear of losing a lot of money...……..

bear market rallies are also reverse crashes......because of the fear of losing [out of] a lot of money.

until market makes a lower high...…..
 
even if this virus wipes out all growth, recent experience with viruses has been that viruses are ,like Human Beings, their own worst enemy......recent viruses all have weakened over time.

maybe because our resistance to them increases.

so take zero growth for a year.

after that growth will rebound and because of small base will look damn good.

so since stock markets are forward looking ,it will continue to go up, during this zero growth year
 
in t4erms of % 5% daily is NOT normal and terms of point this NOT normal 1500 points in 7 days.. in terms of points its HUGE man!

when NQ was 1000 to double to 2000 it was 1000 points and took 1 year

now 8000 NQ it went to 9000 in ONE WEEK!!!! on contract of NQ is $20,000 in profits. in one week.

this is not a normal market. and it because of coronavirus fears and some traders don't trade these markets. too volatile...you don't sell puts at all. you want to buy puts there are no sellers. or the price is like 25% of the stock price for out of money puts..which is BS


dealmaker said:
Market gyrations

How historic is the current market volatility? As Ritholz Wealth Management's Ben Carlson explains for Fortune, there have been 53 double-digit corrections in the stock market in the last nine decades or so, but the current one "feels different because there is the prospect of a looming pandemic and potential economic slowdown…Just remember that the fact that stocks have fallen so hard so fast doesn't necessarily make it any easier to predict what comes next." Fortune
More...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top