Market Direction INDU SPX OEX NDX RUT

Reply to GG12;
Looks fine and QQQQ while barely green [as of lunch];
is still not closing above 50 day moving average.Same as of year to date polar bear QQQQ trend.

Reply to nickname T-do;
Actually amoung the most helpful thongs i look for is things in William O Neil books. He dosent like long/stock for example above 50 day moving average some times.His short selling stock book shorts in that 50 day area some times:cool:

Some trading can takes years, like,
investors.com
free info/trading can be like lengthly medical education.

Derivatives traders can be shorter time frame;
glad i learned on stocks, they're more forgiving.
 
murray t turtle et all,

The Qs are very interesting! I played around with the moving averages. I have attached a graphics, where I applied the 60 SMA which satisfied me most. But, I am a big fan of market technique, which is more direct. May be the moving averages can be used as filters to the signals generated by the market technique I use.

As you see in the atached graphics, there have been 44 trades in a 2 years timeframe in the Qs. 44 trades/24 month is about 2 trades average per month. I used only end of day data. Trades would have been opened and closed only in the last minutes (at closings) every day, when Qs made a 1/2 point turn.

The result that system is a gain of 45*0.5 points = 22.5 points in 2 years (before costs and slippage). In comparison a 'buy and hold' strategy gave you 6 points for that time period. Please be aware that there is 'slippage', because closing prices will pass the trigger lines by a certain amount. I don't thing the slippage of 44 trades (43+1 because of No. 12) ate up the profits. Someone would need to do backtesting to confirm this. Is some under the readers of this thread who can do this?

No Win Total
1 8
2 2 10
3 -1 9
4 1 10
5 0 10
6 2 12
7 0 12
8 0 12
9 -1 11
10 6 17
11 -1 16
12 3 19 (corrected, because 12 is a combination of two trades resulting in a loss and in a win; -1 and +4)
13 0 19
14 0 19
15 0 19
16 4 23
17 -1 22
18 -1 21
19 5 26
20 1 27
21 4 31
22 1 32
23 0 32
24 0 32
25 0 32
26 2 34
27 1 35
28 -1 34
29 5 39
30 1 40
31 3 43
32 1 44
33 -1 43
34 1 44
35 0 44
36 -1 43
37 -1 42
38 -1 41
39 1 42
40 -1 41
41 -1 40
42 0 40
43 5 45

Please ask questions or provide comments, if you like.

Regards,

gg12

PS: I also made some addtional research about 'turning areas'. That are areas where the price will penetrate a range which is about 9 - 10 units (4.5 to 5 points) away from the last significant high or low.
A graphics to show the effect will follow.
 

Attachments

Attached the graphics including ideas about 'turning areas'.

QQQQ closed at 39.49. There is no long positon at the moment.
The latest turning area is just below at 38.5.
 

Attachments

Market Vote 05/26

Balance
----------
4 points = 4 x confirmations of right relative judgement.
DIA ok. 3 points gain since start
SPY ok. 1 points gain since start
QQQQ neutral; no gain - no loss
IWM neutral; no gain - no loss

Nr Name Trend; Change
-------------------------------
01 INDU UP; 11100
02 DIA UP; 111
03 SPX UP; 1270
04 SPY UP; 127
05 OEX UP; 580
06 NDX UP; 1580
07 QQQQ DN; 39.5
08 Nasdaq UP; 2180
09 RUT DN; 730
10 IWM UP; 71

# of UPs vs. DNs 8:2 => market is turning up. 80% Up (UP) bias!

11 VIX DN; 15.0
12 VXO DN; 14.0
13 VXN DN; 19.5
14 QQV DN; 17.5

# of UPs vs. DNs 0:4 => fear went out of the market; greed without a 100% confirmed market change. Qs and RUT are still in downtrend!

Signals
---------
New Re-Entry in DIA will be at 112 crossed to the upside confirmed by a daily closing. Done!
Re-Entry for SYP is still 128. Done! (Better Entry would have been 127, but since I didn't watch carefully during last week, I take 128 a entry)
New Re-Entry for QQQQ is 39.5; Not yet done! Intraday pass through has not been confirmed at closing!
Re-Entry for IWM is 73; Not yet done! IWM is already in an Uptrend. Normally 72 would have been the entry. Active traders need to follow the market daily and adjust the signal lines based on the recent closings.[color]

Positons
----------
DIA long since 112; stop loss 111
SPY long sinde 128; stop loss 127
QQQQ waiting for 39.5 to be crossed up to go long
IWM waiting for 73 to be crossed up to go long

Miscellaneous
-----------------
QQQQ graphics is attached to illustrate the status of the trend (still down), - and where a small loss occured yesterday.
 

Attachments

Happy new year to you all!

I will focus on INDU, SPX, NDX and Russel this year.

Ten day grids:

INDU HIGH 12570 LOW 12345 with 15 x 15 point steps
SPX HIGH 1428 LOW 1406 with 11 x 2 point steps
NDX HIGH 1795 LOW 1735 with 12 x 5 point steps
RUT HIGH 798 LOW 776 with 11 x 2 point steps

gg12
 

Attachments

RUT with UP and Down-Triggerline attached.

Stop is always one unit (step).
Also Positions are reversed on Stop levels.

Therefore Systems is always activ - vs. a buy and hold system, which is the benchmark.
 

Attachments

Dow seems to be bullish.

Long Signal was created yesterday intraday crossing 12390 up.
Trailing stop is currently at 12390 (started at 12375).
Target for taking profits is 12495.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Grid-unit is 15 points.
Calculation Frame for system was 10 days.

Long after Dow went 3 units (same applies for short)
Stop Trailing 3 units
Gain Target 10 units

Remark: System currently would also work with 1 unit triggers (depends on commission structure).

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - -
10 day waves (15 points grid):
1125121121,10112322412613113184214411211115614211223122121
 

Attachments

Attached you see the INDU with 100 point grids.

The System based on closings is

1) Stop 100 (on grid)
2) and Trail 100 (on grid)
3) Apply no Profit Target
4) @ at 100 point Closng Grid

short
1234) S100T100P-@100C
 

Attachments

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