Market Direction INDU SPX OEX NDX RUT

murray t turtle,

I agree with you. Things are locking bad! All indexes are pointing south now.

I.e. NDX joined today. We have a 100% vote for down now!!!!

Only if the NDX level of 1720 is crossed to the upside we can think of a rebound. QQQQ is in an established downtrend. Only above 42.5 there are signs of hope.

Also the volatility is picking up. We have a 3:1 vote for volas going up. There is coming some fear into the markets.

gg12
 

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Quote from gg12:

murray t turtle,

I agree with you. Things are locking bad! All indexes are pointing south now.

I.e. NDX joined today. We have a 100% vote for down now!!!!

Only if the NDX level of 1720 is crossed to the upside we can think of a rebound. QQQQ is in an established downtrend. Only above 42.5 there are signs of hope.

Also the volatility is picking up. We have a 3:1 vote for volas going up. There is coming some fear into the markets.

gg12
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gg12;
It doesnt happen every time, but its strange,
how when many of them [SPY, ES,YM, DIA QQQQ ,NQ] go south;
XLE [oil gas sector] trends north, trends up.:cool:
 
murray t turtle,

you are right. XLE is trending up and possibliy will make new highs. But if 56 is crossed to the downside on a closing XLE will enter in a short term downmove.

gg12

PS: 8 of 10 indexes/ETFs might have buy signal today at closing.
 
Market Vote 04/18

01 INDU UP; 11100
02 DIA UP; 111
03 SPX UP; 1290
04 SPY UP; 129
05 OEX UP; 585
06 NDX UP; 1700
07 QQQQ DN; 42.5
08 Nasdaq UP; 2320
09 RUT UP; 750
10 IWM UP; 75

# of UPs vs. DNs 9:1 => market is bullishh. 90% UP bias!

11 VIX DN; 12.0
12 VXO DN; 12.0
13 VXN DN; 17.0
14 QQV DN; 17.0

# of UPs vs. DNs 0:4 => at lot of greed, no fear.

DIA bought at 112; Stop Loss 111
SPY bought at 130; Stop Loss 129
Buy Qs Stop 42.5; Stop Loss 42.0
IWM bought at 75; Stop Loss 75

If the stopp level is not confirmed at the close, I will close the trade and take the loss at the same day's closing.

XLE closed above 58! Next level down is 75.
 
gg12, you have to check if a direction is held. i.e. today's reversal could be an anomaly. The afternoon move had no justification, as the news was already priced in.

Sometimes you may want to fade the volatility. i.e. if it suggests greed read it as fear.
 
1000,

you are right. I need to check if a direction is held. But I think yesterday's reversal was not an anomaly. The thing which concerns me is that all my signals were so extrem bearish and a change happend so quickly. But I am now long with SPYs, QQQQs and IWMs until I get counter signals.

Volatility is a very special thing. Greed can be read as fear and vice versa. At the moment I think it's greed, because of the trend down of all volas.

gg12

PS: Let 's see what happens to my trades.

QQQQ bought at 42.5 today; Stop loss is 42
 
The sharp move up may have been because of expiration week for apr06, this friday.

So far Jun06 for ES, SPX, INDU, YM hasn't held above close of Mar06. Likely to have backing and filling. Also oil now at $74. Someone's bound to throw in the towel.
 
1000,

I stick to my positions:

DIA bought at 112; Stop Loss 111
SPY bought at 130; Stop Loss 129
Buy Qs bought at 42.5; Stop Loss 42.0
IWM bought at 75; Stop Loss 75

Let's see what happens the next days. I am bullish so far.

Vola is slightly going up, but no concern! No fear, little bit less greed...

Also XLE uptrend; Signal down at 58.
If 58 is crossed intraday go short. But if closing is then above 58 liquidate immediately. Stopp Loss and reverse point to go long is 59.

gg12
 
1000,

thank you for your positive feedback about my calls. Please also let me know, what I can do better.

DIA bought at 112; Stop Loss 112; NEW!
SPY bought at 130; Stop Loss 130; NEW!
Buy Qs bought at 42.5; Stop Loss 42.0 hit intraday!
IWM bought at 75; Stop Loss 76; NEW!

For DIA and SPY stop loss points are moved up to break even level.
For IWM stop loss level is already one point above entry!
Qs have been stopped out with a loss of 0.5 points.
I will go long if 42.5 will be surpassed intraday. If the closing will not hold the level, I will immediately close the position.

XLE closed at 59.74 yesterday. Nice uptrend. Signal down is at 58 and will be moved up to 59, if an XLE closing is above 60.

gg12

PS: Sorry, it's all very short term, but you can expext worst case a counter signal every day. Aim is to catch long term trends, which last some days to some weeks. Until then I will be whippsawed many times with small losses. The only way it doesn't hurt is to have very small steaks in the game i.e. 1-5% total risk per trade of your portfolio.
 
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