Interesting candle on the indicies on fri.. Key reveral day I wonder? Or only profit taking...
Market Direction INDU SPX OEX NDX RUT
- Thread starter gg12
- Start date
Li Ka Shing
I find it extremly interesting that the lowest correlation of SPX and SPY last year has been only 71%!!!
SPX and OEX are highly correlated, but the magic full numbers and intervals work in a way that you can have a long signal on SPX and simultaneously a short signal on OEX.
In summing -1 and +1 up I count that as a neutral direction signal.
Target is to vote all the individual signals and create a filter. The filter can tell you not to trade against the 'vote'.
I didn't do any backtesting on that, but let's see.
Regards,
gg12
PS: SPX and SPY are short since they lost 10 and 1 point. OEX was in uptrend. Today the 585 line has been crossed to the downside on intrady base. If that will be the case on the closing we will have the OEX also pointing south, creating a dangerous 'south' trend.
I find it extremly interesting that the lowest correlation of SPX and SPY last year has been only 71%!!!
SPX and OEX are highly correlated, but the magic full numbers and intervals work in a way that you can have a long signal on SPX and simultaneously a short signal on OEX.
In summing -1 and +1 up I count that as a neutral direction signal.
Target is to vote all the individual signals and create a filter. The filter can tell you not to trade against the 'vote'.
I didn't do any backtesting on that, but let's see.
Regards,
gg12
PS: SPX and SPY are short since they lost 10 and 1 point. OEX was in uptrend. Today the 585 line has been crossed to the downside on intrady base. If that will be the case on the closing we will have the OEX also pointing south, creating a dangerous 'south' trend.
I like it, gg12, you got guts, awesome. The only thing is that I trade actively, and so I don't want to skew, or be biased to my vote.
So I would rather trade, because if I vote down, then I will have my shorts hat on, and visa versa. Thing is I have a good idea as to what the exact index price is going to be over the next few days.
1000,
sometimes a bias is the right thing. If the vote of the major indexes is down, why should we go long immediately?
The best thing from my opinion is to wait until 'magig' lines are crossed to the upside. That will reduce the overall profit, but will avoid multible expensive whipsaws.
Is that correct from your opinion?
sometimes a bias is the right thing. If the vote of the major indexes is down, why should we go long immediately?
The best thing from my opinion is to wait until 'magig' lines are crossed to the upside. That will reduce the overall profit, but will avoid multible expensive whipsaws.
Is that correct from your opinion?
Market Vote 04/13
01 INDU DN; 11200
02 DIA DN; 112
03 SPX DN; 1300
04 SPY DN; 130
05 OEX DN; 590
06 NDX UP; 1700
07 QQQQ DN; 42.5
08 Nasdaq DN; 2340
09 RUT DN; 760
10 IWM DN; 75
# of UPs vs. DNs 9:1 => market is bearish. 90% down bias!
11 VIX UP; 12.0
12 VXO DN; 12.5
13 VXN DN; 17.0
14 QQV UP; 15.0
# of UPs vs. DNs 2:2 => no greed, no fear.
Watch the breaklevels based on daily closing prices (... ; xxx.x).
To better verify the results, I will track DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM which are tradeable instruments.
Buy DIA Stop 113; Stop Loss 112
Buy SPY Stop 130; Stop Loss 129
Buy Qs Stop 42.5; Stop Loss 42.0
Buy IWM Stop 75; Stop Loss 74
If the stopp level is not confirmed at the close, I will close the trade and take the loss at the same day's closing.
01 INDU DN; 11200
02 DIA DN; 112
03 SPX DN; 1300
04 SPY DN; 130
05 OEX DN; 590
06 NDX UP; 1700
07 QQQQ DN; 42.5
08 Nasdaq DN; 2340
09 RUT DN; 760
10 IWM DN; 75
# of UPs vs. DNs 9:1 => market is bearish. 90% down bias!
11 VIX UP; 12.0
12 VXO DN; 12.5
13 VXN DN; 17.0
14 QQV UP; 15.0
# of UPs vs. DNs 2:2 => no greed, no fear.
Watch the breaklevels based on daily closing prices (... ; xxx.x).
To better verify the results, I will track DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM which are tradeable instruments.
Buy DIA Stop 113; Stop Loss 112
Buy SPY Stop 130; Stop Loss 129
Buy Qs Stop 42.5; Stop Loss 42.0
Buy IWM Stop 75; Stop Loss 74
If the stopp level is not confirmed at the close, I will close the trade and take the loss at the same day's closing.
=======================
GG12
Looks like some good probability trades , especially since long term trends like DIA,YM,ES,SPY are up, 200 & 50 day moving averages are up; however rallys have been weak.
XLE looks even stronger; supply & demand may help uptrend more.
Looks like however market may hit your QQQQ sell stop, not a prediction.
And while weekly lows have held on ES,SPY,YM,DIA;
and may even have an uptrend day next week,????? .Weak rally
ES,SPY weekly trends are down,& 20 days =down
YM,DIA weekly trends are down, & 20 days = down
