billp,
1.) vola: yes, it´s volatility
2.) I said, the odds are high, that this is fake size. there is only one thing, causing the price go higher: buying at the ask.
So when the buying stops, there can be size on the bid for two reasons: on the one hand there might someone try to scare some more shorties into the asks (to sell at the higher price) on the other hand ( an this happens more often) the market maker might just higher his bids, because thinks of lower volatility.
3.) perhaps there is some missunderstanding in terms of the market condition I´m talking about here.
I´m not bottom/top picking so this setup doesn´t have anything to do with the situation described above. yes there must be size, before I short. I will cut the trade when the size disappears.
As a general advice I should say, that there are no general "if-->then" rules to trade. I could write a whole book on setups, but it would not help anyone to make profits.
You should just try to understand the motives that are diving the market participants to place limit orders so you get a better understanding how the DOM behaves in certain market conditions.
I found out for my own trading, that it´s quite useless to search for setups and watch the dom, until that setup shows up, because this won´t happen exactly the same way.
It´s more like watching the DOM to figure out the current market condition. You will know how it should look like, when everthing is efficient so when there is some odd behaviour, it jumps right into the eye.
Before I trade, I have to have the feeling that the market has no other chance then to move into this or that direction and I´m right about 90% of the time.
We were talking about profits all the time, so what about the loosers??
Thing is, that market conditions change within seconds and inefficiencies are mostly linked, so you also have to trade that way.
Example: Market is ranging, that means, the spread of the sizes is large and only small size is around the inside. we are trading at the highs of the range and size appears in the second best bid, but no size in the correlated market.
That would make me think of a squeeze or fake and I will offer at the inside ask.
I get a fill, the pusher disappears and wait for the move down one/two ticks. suddently size shows up in the correlated market, too and a large bid is posted in my market two ticks above the previous inside ask, which was my entry. I now have a looser and although I was right in the beginning, I have no chance to make this trade a profitable one.
I now will reverse my position, knowing, that there is agressive buying going on, perhaps someone tries to force the breakout.
Now it´s getting interesting: on the one hand, when the breakout really happens, the DOM should look like in an uptrending market. Bid´s that are hit should immediatly be replaced. A very strong indication for a real breakout is the small selling at the bids and no buying at the ask.
Sounds weird but here´s why: some minor participants try to sell the range top at market but the bid sucks up all the liquidity, noone really believes in the break. then the selling stops and for a millisecond nothing happens. This is the time, when the sellers realize, that they are on the wrong track, so guess, what´s next

. The catalyst for the move is usually a larger bid showing up at the inside...then the herd beginns to run.
So ok, I reversed my position waiting for the upmove, but suddenly a large sell eats away two bids ( perhaps a MM pushed to the high´s, another one sells into the breakout for profits, because he bought the range bottom and takes the opportunity to sell into liquidity). The market stalls and tanks back into the range. I have a looser again
So perhaps you now understand, that there are also no safe profits by using the DOM. You should not try to predict, but only react to the action. The situation I described above happens in a few seconds, so you have to be really fast.
Most important rule for me is: Only enter, when you know what´s going on and when everything fits together. Exit, when the opportunity is over or when you loose the grip. That means, that I will step aside, when something surprises me.
When you really try to learn trading with the DOM, you should not use any chart. you will be surprised, how the chart is in your head after two hours.