Quote from commanderco:
Most people devote almost 100% of their energy to the charts, leaving next to nothing to the other 80% to which they attach little importance ... in other words, they are seduced by the clever charts.
Take a look at the books on trading ie "you only need to be correct 40 - 50% of the time. Are they nuts!!
How the hell are you ever going to crank up your lot size on say the ES if you are on a coin toss ... give me a break.
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I was agreeing with almost everything you said until the last part. Win rate is but just ONE piece of the trading puzzle.
The math behind making money trading is as follows.
(Number of Trades * Win % * Avg $Win ) minus
(Number of Trades * (Losing %) * Avg $Loss )
There are THREE ways to become profitable and increase how much you make.
1) Increase your Win %
2) Increase your Avg Win ie make $200 vs $150 on winning trades.
3) DECREASE your Avg Loss ie lose $100 instead of $200 on losing trades.
Would you rather out of 100 trades be right 70% of the time and make $50 on avg wins and lose $200 on avg loss
OR
Win 30% of the time but make $300 on your avg win but lose $50 on your avg loss?
Clearly Trader B is better as Trader A loses $2,500 and Trader B makes $5,500 !
Now I agree with you in terms that I try harder to find systems and strategies that have high win % as I could never trade a 30% winning system with size! I do agree with you on that. Emotions come into place and I have a high ego and like to be right. It's also nice to trade while calm and with no stress. Once you make money trading and have a system you believe in, trading is a low stress activity as you know you'll make money most days.