Market Delta by bolter

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5P,

Good to hear. As the originator of the "delta shift" concept could you find 5 minutes to describe it for us? It's a very novel and interesting approach and I'm sure we'd all gain something from it.

Thanks and regards,
bolter
 
As anybody reading this thread knows, I have been banging on about the order book - because MD, volume and the book are intimately connected.

Over the last few days the DAX book has been different - big size becoming visible quite often - more than had previously been the case.

Anyway, immediately prior to the jobless figures about 350 contracts were sitting on the inside ask. A typical figure would be in the range 1 - 30.
The market took them out easily on the news.

Now this makes no sense to me whatsoever. Is this just negligence ? Some ATS that the developers forgot to incorporate timing of news releases into ? Their computer clock a bit off ? I'd really like to know what game was going on because I surely can't figure it out.

Incidently, the 350 contracts were sitting about 1 tick just under VWAP.
 
Quote from bolter:

5P,

Good to hear. As the originator of the "delta shift" concept could you find 5 minutes to describe it for us? It's a very novel and interesting approach and I'm sure we'd all gain something from it.

Thanks and regards,
bolter
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Yes sir,

I look for market delta based divergences at or near key s/r levels that I use (HOD, LOD, MP levels). When I have a delta divergence at or very near these levels, I will always try and enter my position within 4 ticks from that most recent pivot that I will be going counter-trend to. Once the divergence has shown, I try to time my entry within 4 ticks of the most recent pivot in conjunction with the delta now "shifting" to the other side of the zero line (If the divergence is a SHORT, I am looking for the fist signs of "red" on my VB indicator after the green divergence peaks). It is the delta from my "Volume Breakdown" indicator, going from green to red or red to green after the divergence has shown that I call the "shift".

I am trying to enter the trade when the last gasp of momentum for that move has just played out and we get to a stall in volume conviction.....this is where opposite volume conviction is most likely to take place along with profit taking covering (traders thinking the move may be exhausted). My objective is to enter my position and then have this profit taking covering and new initiated countertrend entries to enable my position to be in the money 3 to 4 ticks very fast after entry (first target for 1/3'rd of my position is always at 1 pt from entry).

Just like a pendulum that swings in a grandfather clock, so does volume conviction during price moves. I am picking entries that are for me right when the pendulum has fully swung and then just hangs there for a millisecond before the new swing in an opposite direction. With my entries within 4 ticks of the most recent pivot, it does not take much covering or new initiated countertrend entry volume to put my position to the first profit target.....this I have found I can best achieve by entries using the "shift" of the delta as my final criteria for entry.
 
5P,
Thank you for that. Can you post one of your fancy charts to demonstrate the "delta shift" concept?
Much appreciated,
bolter
 
Very significant divergence between <500
trades and >500 traders on the bund today. v large size bought the move the smaller sold it

I am starting to think that maybe the very large trades are not a particularly good indicator
 

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jl12,
I am starting to think that maybe the very large trades are not a particularly good indicator.
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Indicator of what jl? Gotta think about what the data is telling you. If they just loaded the boat and then the market turns around what do you think is going to happen, and how can you take advantage of it?

bolter
 
Here is a LONG that I am in as I had a delta divergence with shift just above a newer MP level (formed in the last two days)..........

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/16/ES_317_VB_3.png

....also the 1401.50 level just below this entry is about where the news release buying started at 08:30 today.......there should be some additional support in this area as a result of this buying zone (at least good for one LONG down at these levels imo).

Additional the NYSE A/D lines had already started to "hook" as I entered this LONG......

http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/16/AD_Track_.png
 
Quote from bolter:

jl12,


Indicator of what jl? Gotta think about what the data is telling you. If they just loaded the boat and then the market turns around what do you think is going to happen, and how can you take advantage of it?

bolter
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That would'nt be "rat cunning" would it?
 
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