Correctamundo! As traders, we'd all LOVE to get a read on cycles... the "when" of lows and highs. However, any "cyclical" considerations are HIGHLY UNRELIABLE in general... though there appear to be, from time to time, correlations.
Market Cycles learned from experience...
- Thread starter Bullverine
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Correctamundo! As traders, we'd all LOVE to get a read on cycles... the "when" of lows and highs. However, any "cyclical" considerations are HIGHLY UNRELIABLE in general... though there appear to be, from time to time, correlations.
No, no, no. You misunderstand my friend. Trading Linear Cycles is no different than using 20/80 signals on an indicator.
Only an idiot backtests 20/80 and draws the conclusion that it doesn't work (I am referring to the uni. studies earlier). As if hundreds of guys are going to develop indicators and give them free with software, and all we need to do is buy through 20 to make billions.
But linear cycles are no different. Or linear Fib cycles. You don't get this on a plate. But if you have wised up to the fact that there is a problem, then you are faced with a decision.
You can throw it all out and say time is the problem and discover constant volume is the key. And it is.
Or you can discover the answer is one of the other two vectors. And it is.
Or you can discover all three vectors are different aspects of the same thing.
Or you can do as most do and conclude it is a worthless pursuit.
But doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the innate desire of most traders. As you rightly point out, there is the random success, and there is the snare because it fuels the dream of the simple.
While that particular case is impossible it doesn't prove your logic sound unless this requirement holds true for the entire set of possibilities, which it doesn't.
Proving you wrong is as simple as visiting a candy store and buying a handful of unwrapped hard candies and popping them all in my mouth at once.
It certainly is a single order and I expect to be charged per contract according to their discount schedule based on the quantity of contracts I want to buy.
I already agreed with you for the specific case of data providers that aggregate multiple ticks on time and/or price.
But, your argument doesn't hold for providers that don't aggregate ticks. In that case the ticks are indeed atomic.
I never said a single tick can't be a one lot trader. What I said was that given the information provided in the tick stream; time, price and quantity, there is simply no way to possibly determine that it was a single lot or a partial fill that's part of a larger order.
Good to know that your ability to leap to a conclusion without any supporting data isn't limited to a stream of ticks...
"Cyclical oscillations" appear to be somewhat regular for a period... then they change and become unreliable.
Years ago when my work was tracked by Steve Shellins of MoniResearch Newsletter, he said... "The style described as following the cyclical nature of the markets was DEAD LAST in performance off all the tracked"...
I'm not going to argue with you.
The candy is per piece & the contracts are charged per contract. This is exactly what I'm referring to.
I agree with you that ticks are atomic but not the market.
Time is irrelevant to price and quantity. Please give me one single trader, hedger, investor or speculator (institutional or otherwise) that will only place their transactions at specific times of the day? Not that it matter but you won't find that person unless they are autistic.
The last thing a I ever so is leap to a conclusion. Please explain the focus of your personal research and how long you have been doing it.
I'm not sure what to call this exchange but, calling it an "argument" would be near the bottom of the list of possibilities.
No, that's not what you were referring to, not even close. But, since you're not going to argue with me...
If a tick is atomic then you can't fracture one of it's elements.
Time is irrelevant? Aside from the mundane use of providing order, how else would you measure the velocity and acceleration of a stream of ticks without using time?
Similarly, have you never heard of time-relative constructs like time-based stops?
As for time-specific trading, how can you be so certain that there isn't some subset of people out there who only place MOO and/or MOC orders?
What about the Casual Joe, workin' for the Man who can only punch an order in during his lunch break?
What about time-bounded trading; regular versus after-market?
Tell you what, turn this current discussion into a productive dialog and I'll indulge you.