Market Cycles learned from experience...

Quote from Gubinec:

I recently started diving into astrological market analysis. That's where I got the 5* Uranus cycle from. Too bad it's not an intra-day cycle tho, then it would be priceless!

When Moon aspects Mars or Saturn, you know the market's going down.

Sun is like the big impotent guy sitting there on the ephemeris. No matter which planet or point aspects it, there's no effect on price action.

lol.

Apparently the solar eclipse is bullish.
 
Quote from jprad:

By forcing each bar to have the same number of contracts/shares you're pretty much guaranteeing that you will have to split a given tick in two.

Each tick, IMHO, should be treated atomically instead of being split in two because of some arbitrary bar size.

That same principle works in reverse. Data vendors or brokers who aggregate ticks are just as broken for merging atoms to reduce bandwidth utilization.

Tick = Transaction = varying number of contracts per transaction. There is nothing atomic about a transaction that is made up of a varying number of contracts or shares traded.

Ticks charts are as inconsistent as minute charts because it is giving as much weight to a single lot trader as it is a trader that moves 100 lots.

Again markets are traded in contracts and shares not transactions.

What is arbitrary is creating a chart where there is no symmetry in the natural flow of price. The only natural part of the process is the price paid for the instrument and the instument (share or contract) itself.
 
Quote from Gubinec:

I recently started diving into astrological market analysis. That's where I got the 5* Uranus cycle from. Too bad it's not an intra-day cycle tho, then it would be priceless!

When Moon aspects Mars or Saturn, you know the market's going down.

Sun is like the big impotent guy sitting there on the ephemeris. No matter which planet or point aspects it, there's no effect on price action.

That is too far out there for me.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

That is too far out there for me.

:)

Regarding your concern for an as natural as possible arrangement of a chart, what do you think about Gann's squaring of time and price?

In other words, Gann set a specific scale of a unit of price to a unit of time (or vice-versa), and constructed the price and time axes of the chart according to that scale. If the price of the instrument had an average range of 10 points a day, he would set the price/time axes at a scale of 10 to 1.

Supposedly, that reveals patterns and relationships in the chart that are otherwise not possible to be seen in a regular non-scaled chart.

However, if that was the case, then every pre-90s trader who used hand-drawn charts, which naturally require a scale, would be able to see these relationships and supposedly be profitable, which we know is not true.

IMHO, Gann made more money marketing and selling his courses and books than he actually made trading, and Wyckoff was his partner-in-crime, an "affiliate" of sort, to borrow from modern-day marketing concepts, who had a piece of that pie, for marketing Gann's supposed ability to predict the markets. $5000 a course was no peanuts back in the 1920's.

It doesn't help the fact that the time period that Gann's prime years fell on was the most fertile breeding ground of all sorts of mystical ideas and concepts.

To this day, not one person has been able to replicate Gann's results, and yet there's hundreds of Gann "experts" who every other day claim to have cracked the "secret" to Gann's method, and yet they need to sell a book or course on how they did it, rather than actually trade it and make money from it! LOL.
 
Quote from Bullverine:

I was wondering if anyone could share the market cycles that they have observed and learned from their own experience.

Volume

R2R 2B 2R and B2B 2R 2B

- Spydertrader
 
Quote from Gubinec:

:)
Regarding your concern for an as natural as possible arrangement of a chart, what do you think about Gann's squaring of time and price?
In other words, Gann set a specific scale of a unit of price to a unit of time (or vice-versa), and constructed the price and time axes of the chart according to that scale. If the price of the instrument had an average range of 10 points a day, he would set the price/time axes at a scale of 10 to 1.
Supposedly, that reveals patterns and relationships in the chart that are otherwise not possible to be seen in a regular non-scaled chart.
However, if that was the case, then every pre-90s trader who used hand-drawn charts, which naturally require a scale, would be able to see these relationships and supposedly be profitable, which we know is not true.
IMHO, Gann made more money marketing and selling his courses and books than he actually made trading, and Wyckoff was his partner-in-crime, an "affiliate" of sort, to borrow from modern-day marketing concepts, who had a piece of that pie, for marketing Gann's supposed ability to predict the markets. $5000 a course was no peanuts back in the 1920's.
It doesn't help the fact that the time period that Gann's prime years fell on was the most fertile breeding ground of all sorts of mystical ideas and concepts.
To this day, not one person has been able to replicate Gann's results, and yet there's hundreds of Gann "experts" who every other day claim to have cracked the "secret" to Gann's method, and yet they need to sell a book or course on how they did it, rather than actually trade it and make money from it! LOL.

I try to keep things as natural as possible and to me that is price and it's naturally created oscillations.
 
Not totally sure I want to get into this but I disagree. Hence probability theory, stochastic process, discreet time, Bernoulli process, Brownian motion, and on and on. Time interval might be the single most important factor in taking advantage of random process.


Quote from ProfLogic:

Markets are traded in contracts or shares not minutes so an accurate representation of price is a chart constructed without time being a factor.

Time is important for remembering when the market opens and closes, when reports are due to come out or what time Bernie is speaking but time isn't relevant to the normal flow of supply & demand. No one, including institutional traders ONLY place their orders at certain times of the day, they place there orders whenever they need to, whenever the markets will absorb the order.

The only things that are a constant in the market are price and volume. The amount of contracts or shares traded on any given minute of any given day is a variable. It is NEVER a constant. This is why you see drastic spikes on your charts immediately following reports and see narrow thin bars in the overnight. My charts do not show either of those abnormalities. Using constant volume bars allow you to see the natural cycles that minute charts will never let you view.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

There is nothing atomic about a transaction that is made up of a varying number of contracts or shares traded.

There isn't? Say you're hosting a party and need to go get some beer. Are you really going to patronize the store again if the clerk tells you that you need to make ten separate purchases for the 20 cases of beer you want?

The size of your purchase is immaterial, it's a single transaction.

It's atomic.

Same with a tick. If you're plugging those ticks into relational database how do you reference the same tick across two different rows because of some arbitrary size limit?

You don't, because the tick is atomic. It's a tuple consisting of three inviolate elements, time, price and quantity.

Ticks charts are as inconsistent as minute charts because it is giving as much weight to a single lot trader as it is a trader that moves 100 lots.

There's no way to know that each single lot transaction is a separate trader. They could all be coming from someone who's hiding size behind a show-only order.

What is arbitrary is creating a chart where there is no symmetry in the natural flow of price. The only natural part of the process is the price paid for the instrument and the instument (share or contract) itself.

No chart is better than any other. Any attempt to say otherwise is just a rationalization because any two dimensional chart will always be a visual approximation for the three vectors of price, volume and time.
 
Quote from ProfLogic:

Yes, and they were the first to offer capped volume bars but they had a problem with a trader monitoring many markets. It was a chart refresh problem. If they have fixed it, great. If they haven't I wouldn't use them.

Thanks :)
 
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