Market Crash

[Eliot Hosewater]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

Please explain. How can one man crash a market?

Jeez, I forgot to add the most important quote from Wiki. (Note to self - brain rot getting worse.)


He continued to make money in the bull markets of the Roaring 20's. In 1929, he noticed market conditions similar to that of the 1907 market. He began shorting various stocks and adding to his positions and they kept declining in price. When just about everyone in the markets lost money in the crash of 1929, Livermore was worth $100 million after his short-selling profits.
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[Soon2BTrader]

Quote from naz9403:

i see stocktraders point, there will be no major influx of speculator funds. To say never again is a stretch. Take a look at the roaring 20's, i guarantee back then no one thought a market would be so robust ever again. And look what happened the tech bubble was many times bigger.

Two key reasons for those two major booms was revolution.

Industrial for the roaring 20's
Technological for late 90's

The next major boom will need a new revolution and what it is i don't think anyone knows. We had to wait 60 years from the roaring 20's to even develop the technology which would spur the next revolution, and had to wait another 15 for the boom.
So for the next revolution the technology may not even be thought of yet.

How long will a new revolution take???


Which makes me think, today's speculator will have to adapt and make money with leverage and catch small moves in a combination of futures, currencies, and maybe some emerging markets.

But it can be done.

Be careful.

No major influx of spec funds? The market is full os spec funds i.e. hedge funds. Have you missed the huge capital flows into and out of emerging markets recently? India, Iceland, Turkey, etc... Globally commodities realized a correction after huge bull run (said not to be over). Vol is returning to the market, more vol = better for speculators.

You don't need a revolution or historical event to move a market. The current global imbalances will definitely precipitate major market changes over the next 1 - 2 years. Whether that be a dollar crash or beginning of the "agricultural commodity bull run", or an oil crisis/resolution. There is so much opportunity to make so much money in the coming few years it isn't even funny. You should check your sources or you may miss out...

oh, and as far as revolutions - globalization may very well prove to be our current revolution. It's initial effects are only just beginning to pass through markets and the MAJOR effects have not begun to price in yet...

Be careful.

 

[naz9403]

Quote from Soon2BTrader:

Be careful.

No major influx of spec funds? The market is full os spec funds i.e. hedge funds. Have you missed the huge capital flows into and out of emerging markets recently? India, Iceland, Turkey, etc... Globally commodities realized a correction after huge bull run (said not to be over). Vol is returning to the market, more vol = better for speculators.

You don't need a revolution or historical event to move a market. The current global imbalances will definitely precipitate major market changes over the next 1 - 2 years. Whether that be a dollar crash or beginning of the "agricultural commodity bull run", or an oil crisis/resolution. There is so much opportunity to make so much money in the coming few years it isn't even funny. You should check your sources or you may miss out...

oh, and as far as revolutions - globalization may very well prove to be our current revolution. It's initial effects are only just beginning to pass through markets and the MAJOR effects have not begun to price in yet...

Be careful.

As far as what you are talking about, it applies to the savvy speculator who can make money in any market.

What i was talking about was the fact that these "revolutions" eventually create a boom in the Equity market. Which is the only market where the major influx of speculation capital is allocated. During the roaring 20's and tech boom, grandma was investing, the car wash guy was investing. These people are not going to put their money into commodities, emerging markets, or futures to speculate. These vehicles are reserved for the wanna be's and the professionals.

Just like the railroad stocks fell out of favor, autos, and now tech. They will be replaced in the new revolution with the new great stocks which will again follow the same path.

"the game never changes, the pockets change, the suckers change, the stocks change, but wall street never changes, because human nature never changes."
-Livermore-

 

[verynewboy]

Quote from WmWaster:

Are you afraid of market crash (ie the deadly bear )?

No. I dream of crashes every night. Crashes increase volatility, and volatility increases opportunities.

 

[flyingiguana]

Quote from cashmoney69:

You dont think there will ever be another bubble in our lifetime?

there's a liquidity bubble now...

 

[Quark]

Quote from naz9403:

...Two key reasons for those two major booms was revolution.

Industrial for the roaring 20's
Technological for late 90's

The 20's had a tech component too - radio, which was seen as a technology revolution at the time.

The common theme that permitted both booms was a massive expansion of easy credit. The current real estate boom (now fading) was the result of continuing easy credit availability.

The other common theme was "it CAN'T go down because (insert the reasons given by your favorite "experts" here)!" In other words, an almost universal belief that the existing trend could not possibly change.

Of course, now we're being told by the "experts" that real estate can't go down. Whew - that's a relief.

 

[gupiao]

Quote from stock_trad3r:

there wont be a market crash in a l000ng time..maybe never again

the speculation phase of the US economy is over...it ended in 2000 after 200+ years of progress beginning with the industrial revolution

I've been a stockbroker for over thirty years and I've been a student of the market longer than I've been a stocbroker. If there's anything I've learned ALL THESE YEARS IS THIS: "NEVER SAY NEVER!

 

[vital-analitix]

Quote from gupiao:

I've been a stockbroker for over thirty years and I've been a student of the market longer than I've been a stocbroker. If there's anything I've learned ALL THESE YEARS IS THIS: "NEVER SAY NEVER!

Oh yeah but this time it is different :eek:

(yeah right! don't you believe it. If there is one thing I have learned from history is that people do not learn from history)


vital analitics

 

[stock_trad3r]

history is continuous, therefore the rules can change.

 

[WmWaster]

Quote from vital-analitix:

Oh yeah but this time it is different :eek:

(yeah right! don't you believe it. If there is one thing I have learned from history is that people do not learn from history)


vital analitics

Yes, people do not learn from history!

That's why history keeps repeating itself.