Market Crash

E

empee

Hi,

I know after 50 PTS up in the ES over the last 2 days it sounds ridiculous, but this market is looking more and more unstable. OTOH, maybe its a new regime and indicators I look @ don't work anymore.

Whats everyone else seeing. I'm curious what intraday ES traders are seeing/thinking, or anyone that trades anything other than daily indices.

Plus, with all the bad news being "priced in" Ie FB yesterday and +25 ES today, it looks like a bull market (ie when the market eats all bad news and moves up anyway). Yet, if it is a new bull its out of sync of a lot of my indicators, so perhaps times have changed.

So looking @ the indexes and how they respond to bad news looks very bullish, but the indicators I use look very bearish or/and don't confirm this rally (yet).

Thoughts
 
Corrective wave in a down trend, otherwise known as a "B" wave, where the advance has narrow breadth and the price action feels fake, because the fundamentals do not justify the behavior.

In other words, just like June 2011.....
 
Quote from empee:
----50 POINTS up in the ES over the last 2 days....
----market is looking more and more unstable.
----maybe its a new regime....
----What's everyone else seeing?
----bad news being "priced in"....
----a new bull that's out of sync....
----bad news....bullish....bearish....rally....
More...

1) ?....end of the month "window dressing"? :confused:
2) "Bad" ISM and NFP numbers can bring the market down next week. We'll see. :eek: :cool: :D
 
Quote from promagma:

May be, but when to get short? I am nowhere near to getting short .... thinking Sept. 2015
More...

Realistically, you can find similar chart patterns in the lost decade(s) of Japan, US in the 1930's, etc, etc...

It's also worth mentioning that a "bull market" doesn't double off the lows in 2+ years, especially with an angle of ascent such as that.

Of course, whenever one brings up these inconvenient facts, they are met with utter contempt, so be it. It's just the reality of this fiscal and monetary mess.
 
Quote from promagma:

May be, but when to get short? I am nowhere near to getting short .... thinking Sept. 2015
More...

Personally, I think about 20 times a day works.

In markets, the market change does not occur during RTH's as much as it changes in NON RTH's.

they interviewed a guy who got short (who knows how) on Facebook at the IPO. He said, then, he was going short. He's ahead, on paper about 50% so far. CNBC did not understand his explanation judging by the linkage of the Q's they asked. He has a very deep voice.
 
You have to just realize that a lot of the market action is manipulated through TARP/FED action.

The bias, no matter what news is out there, is up because of the Bernanke put which causes money managers to ignore normal risk metrics.

Normal measurements of risk are not being applied, normal analysis and investment decisions are not being applied.

Since Europe is having trouble too, money is flowing out of there and into the US - look at bond yields. This money flows into equities here also.

It will revert back to reality eventually - and it is likely to be very ugly when it does. However, there is no point in guessing when or how that might happen.
 
This is the start of the greatest worldwide disaster.......i would sell everything and, well, that won't work...your money will be worthless soon. if u sell 1000 ES contracts, it won't matter when the S&P trades 500 because your brokerage firm will go under with your cash. so, definitely try to buy like 5 farms worldwide, and a few really bad houses around the globe, cash. of course, you still need like a 4,000 point stop on the Dow if you go short, because I only talk of the bigger, more important picture. a few thousand points is nothing!!!

you can try to thank me later, but i will be in my underground location and the internet will be killed for everyone in the world.

good luck my fellow humans.

good thing i didn't give you my 'gloom-n-doom' scenario
 
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