Market crash? The sky is falling?

[v-shape-0DTE]

Ultimately, either TLT goes back down or the markets will be pressured lower because a higher & higher TLT means 10-yr rates going towards 3% which means a recession is coming.

Employment is slowly collapsing towards a NFP print < 0. It could be there by the September 4th report.

Market being pressured is just an lol at this point. Yeah you might eventually get a repeat of last Friday and then 3 or 4 days later magical V. None of that stuff matters in the land of algos and nonstop V recoveries to everything.

 

[v-shape-0DTE]

Again, you said that back in April just before it sold off 10%. Then, yes, like a broken record, you said the same thing in July, only it was even worse than April because you were hollering "V" every single day as the market plunged more than 10%.

Let me guess, today was also expected. Heck 4 straight green days that completely erased the entire move of last week. And now we are back to a market that can't be stopped.

Look, the occasional random drops happen, but there is never a scenario where it won't just V very soon after. Those drops you mentioned happened, but they were gifts as the V happened every time. You have to accept that worst case scenario is a few weeks for the V to happen and if you are a skilled trader, you can really make the V work. There will never be a scenario where we are ever in any sustained downtrend. This market will never allow it. So if we ever get another 2% red day, then take it for what it is and plan ahead for the V.

 

[schizo]

Let me guess, today was also expected. Heck 4 straight green days that completely erased the entire move of last week. And now we are back to a market that can't be stopped.

Look, the occasional random drops happen, but there is never a scenario where it won't just V very soon after. Those drops you mentioned happened, but they were gifts as the V happened every time. You have to accept that worst case scenario is a few weeks for the V to happen and if you are a skilled trader, you can really make the V work. There will never be a scenario where we are ever in any sustained downtrend. This market will never allow it. So if we ever get another 2% red day, then take it for what it is and plan ahead for the V.

LOL And you always pop your head up when the market is trading at the high. Supreme opportunist you.

Look, let me repeat what I said previously. This market, for the time being, is poised to go up. But to say it will NEVER go down is a flat out exaggeration. And you've been caught with your pants down twice already (or is that 3 times?).

Anyway, here's what I believe will happen. Next Wednesday is the scheduled FOMC. The market is rallying this week because it fully expects a rate cut by as much as 50 bps. Now, once we get that rate cut, I assume the market will drop like a brick.

 

[nitrene]

I guess its a push pull between falling employment and lower cost of capital, however lowering rates won't help most companies for a while. If banks reduce credit card rates it will help retail customers immediately.

I think the bottom line is US can't afford to have recessions anymore since the debt is so high. That's also why it makes sense for rates to come down to 3% eventually. In that sense the Fed is already behind. Gundlach has stated for a while that the FF rate get to 3-3.25%.

The best trade is still long 2, 5 & 10-yr bonds.

edit:

The trailing 1 month performance of offensive (MAGS+SMH) vs. defensive (XLP+XLU+XLRE) is -1.5% vs. +6%. I assume lower rates will only magnify that problem. Lower rates don't help large cap tech, but they do help money losing tech.