Market crash on monday?

technically, drop is inavoidable.

last two weeks are consolidations.

it is under 50day ema. take NQ as an example, last resistance is 2560~2575 (qqq 63.3), the first dip to 50ema support. this consolidation range is 2464~2570 (qqq 60.5~63.3), now it is under 2464 (qqq60.50. so it means it is a breakdown. and confirmed the continuing trend down.

my take is NQ will hit 2330~2360 (qqq 58~59), then consolidate there between 2330~2460, jump up/down with no obvious trend.

qqq/nq may not be like that, always need consider AAPL. if AAPL has news out, may change this analysis. or FED may release some manipulation. all will render this analysis useless.


I bought some qqq 61/60 put this friday. I strongly believe more drop is down the road. do not take my analysis seriously. analysis is just for amusement.

bear market is more difficult to trade than a bull market.

bear market creates huge quick rebound, creates illusions of "market reverse", sell there needs steel nerve. particularly early phase bear market. late stage bear market is easier to trade just like trade a stable gradual bull market.
 
Quote from trader198:



bear market is more difficult to trade than a bull market.

bear market creates huge quick rebound, creates illusions of "market reverse", sell there needs steel nerve. particularly early phase bear market. late stage bear market is easier to trade just like trade a stable gradual bull market.
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I always trade better during bear markets. You get a lot more volatility and faster moves. Trading bull markets puts me to sleep.
 
90% of DAYtraders lose because they care about this stuff.

daytraders could care less.

markets open, you analyze, and trade.

you don't do guessing games about flash crashes, gap opens, AAPL buying out RIMM, and what and when QE3 means to the baht/yen spread. it doesn't matter.

if you care, write newsletters and don't trade

or become an economist.

haha
 
Maybe. Who knows.

From reading trading blogs and forums this morning, everyone is looking quite a long way into the future talking about buying the ES when it gets to the 666 level!

I don't know. It doesn't look very well, though!
 
Quote from trader198:

technically, drop is inavoidable.

last two weeks are consolidations.

it is under 50day ema. take NQ as an example, last resistance is 2560~2575 (qqq 63.3), the first dip to 50ema support. this consolidation range is 2464~2570 (qqq 60.5~63.3), now it is under 2464 (qqq60.50. so it means it is a breakdown. and confirmed the continuing trend down.
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God, no, not the 50day EMA!!!! Ahhh, run for the hills!!!!!

I know you said your analysis was for entertainment only, but seriously, do you think the market cares about EMAs? There have been like a million studies showing that crap doesn't work. Do you think hedge funds would need to hire Ph.Ds from MIT to figure out something as simple as a 50day EMA-based strategy? Yes, you can cherry-pick past data to find examples where this kind of thing works, but is it consistent? No way.
 
Quote from logic_man:

God, no, not the 50day EMA!!!! Ahhh, run for the hills!!!!!

I know you said your analysis was for entertainment only, but seriously, do you think the market cares about EMAs? There have been like a million studies showing that crap doesn't work. Do you think hedge funds would need to hire Ph.Ds from MIT to figure out something as simple as a 50day EMA-based strategy? Yes, you can cherry-pick past data to find examples where this kind of thing works, but is it consistent? No way.
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I agree; However, there has been times when I've made money using this knowledge (not strategy).

Say the 50 crosses under the 200....fine, whatever, u sell you are probably a moron. But then, after it gets ENOUGH people all bearish, I wait for it to cross back up...then i've taken longs as people get trapped.

in bull markets, fading H&S's work pretty well.

i think most of TA is horrible, simplistic, and won't make you money, but fading what the new trader will do sometimes works.
 
Quote from BlueTurtle:

90% of DAYtraders lose because they care about this stuff.

daytraders could care less.

markets open, you analyze, and trade.

you don't do guessing games about flash crashes, gap opens, AAPL buying out RIMM, and what and when QE3 means to the baht/yen spread. it doesn't matter.

if you care, write newsletters and don't trade

or become an economist.

haha
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There is a time and place for thinking about events that could drive major moves. That time and place is after you are already in a trade based on price action. I would love it if once I was already short, there was a flash crash or if I were already long, the Fed announced a QE3 program and the market spiked up. I also worry to some extent that if I were on the other side of those events, would I be able to get out at the price I wanted. I only trade the most liquid contracts, but if I've got a stop limit exit price set 5 ES points away and the ES gaps down 6 points instantaneously in a flash crash scenario, my order doesn't fill and the market continues down, I've got a problem. I've never seen that, but doesn't mean it can't happen and that I shouldn't worry about it.

Other than that, I agree that those things are just noise.
 
Quote from atticus:

ESM to announce 2.3T bailout fund. Shock and awe to induce massive short covering.
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You have a link to that or is this something you are speculating will happen? Not trying to be lazy, but don't want to go looking for a story if this is just your speculation.
 
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