Market crash on monday?

Quote from logic_man:

I would have to guess that the people making these predictions are discretionary traders because systematic traders only care about their rules and following them. A systematic trader might say that the market is configured in such a way as to make a crash more likely than it is at other times, but, if their system is a good one, I doubt that it would ever put a crash at a high probability, precisely because they are so rare. There have been, what, 10 great crashes in US market history (just a guesstimate)? That means the odds are 10 divided by however many days of trading there have been in US market history. At those odds, starting a thread about a crash is 99.999% likely to be a waste of bandwidth.

You might, given the past month-plus of market declines, be able to construct a context where the likelihood of a crash goes up to 1%, e.g. a 10% decline in a month after a 100%+ run-up in 3 years on 33% less volume than the prior 3 years, etc., etc., but even then you're going out on a limb with very little data to support the hypothesis of a crash.
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That's way too much logic for me, man. :)
 
Quote from AK100:

90% on this thread are expecting further weakness AFTER the market has already made a big move down. This relates to the famous 3rd Law.
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I remember people thinking like this in 2000 and 2008 -

The US market is way overpriced if you compare to world markets.

EWP is below the 2009 lows and the QQQ is still 100% higher then the 2009 lows.

What people aren't realizing is that the US market is being propped up by outside investors who were putting their money into "safe" areas, but once that "safety" net appears to falter there will be a rush to the exits.

(I was bullish from Aug 2011 and super bullish in Oct 2011 and only went bearish in March 2012.)

There are way too many uncertainties in the coming weeks and months and you know what they say about the market not liking uncertainty.

I wish Greece would just leave - then it won't get drawn out over the next few months or years ...

Germany leaving would be better for all Euros but I can't see how that happens - why would you want to have your currency double when you have the lowest unemployment in the Western World ?

To anyone who is long ... I hope you're hedged.

Any QE/LTRO announcement ends the bear run although it's hard to say for how long ........
 
Well, it's 12:30 am. SP futs are trading at the 65 handle...10 points lower than Fridays close. So you bulls are down 10 points, on the open. Unless price goes higher than ~81ish, the trend is still down. That very well may happen later today. Or it very well may not. On the hourly, price looks like it'll break the 64.50 level. If it does, we could see the resumption of another continuation short...
 
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